Sorry folks but this is not going away...

[Stormcenter]

Sorry folks but the now tropical wave formerly known as
"Tropical Storm Earl" is not going away in my opinion. It's got a real ominous look to it and it keeps on treking wnw. Now the million dollar question is if it develops will it make it into the GOM? IMO yes.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[x-y-no]

Sure looks like it's moving due west to me ...

[~SirCane]

Looks WNW-I agree Stormcenter.

[opera ghost]

If you look at the wave as a whole- instead of individual convection bursts... it's clearly moving WNW- and pushing towards NW.

[Guest]

Look at the latest vis is that the circulation moving out of the convection? 15n 73w

[x-y-no]

OK, whatever ... Without a closed circulation center, it's kind of hard to say. I just don't see it as of yet.

[alicia-w]

Do open waves have T numbers?

[MWatkins]

Do open waves have T numbers?

Yes, they do. All the time...remember that a system can look like a depression or storm in satellite imagery but not have a closed surface circulation. Also...Dvorak rules have constraints to not intensify or decay systems too rapidly...

MW

[SunnyThoughts]

IF it is in fact pushing NW... that certainly wouldn't be good news for the Gulf Coast I suspect. Im in the panhandle of Florida...(well wishes for my neighbors down farther south in their efforts to clean up and heal after the destruction put forth by Charley) I have my hurricane kit ready, although it seems the thoughts from most people here is that Earl will be mostly a western GOM threat if any threat at all. Hopefully everyone along the gulf coast is watching and getting prepared yet again, as nothing is set in stone as to the intensity or the location of this storm in a few days.

[lilbump3000]

Its either moving to the WNW or NW, because anybody with good eyes can see this thing is not moving due west.

[Guest]

unfortuantely, it appears some of you have been fooled by 'Earl', thinking the cirrus blowoffs high clouds and expansion are indicative of overall movement. This system is trekking west.

[x-y-no]

LOL! Wow ... didn't mean to ruffle any feathers. He was certainly moving a little north of west all the time he did have an LLC, and the 11am said WNW, so you could very well be right.

I guess if he reorganizes, we'll know.

Sorry if I don't have "good eyes" - I didn't relize eyeballing open waves was such a precise art. But then I'm just here to learn.

[Guest]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[tampastorm]

I say just north of west, and a spin?

[Brent]

Hmmmmm.... It's defintely not due west. Maybe WNW.

[Anonymous]

Man didnt think Earl would collapse like this

But anyways, the MVC is moving way too fast (outrunning the convection), and if that is what Earl redevlops from itll fly right into Central America.

[Air Force Met]

Its either moving to the WNW or NW, because anybody with good eyes can see this thing is not moving due west.

Well...I have pretty good eyes and it is most certainly not moving NW. Not by a long shot. Allow me to support my belief with some emperical data.

The vorticity max IS moving a hair north of due west.
1) This is not a LLC because there is NO west winds involved. There are no cloud elements which are moving east. If you do a high res loop...you will not see one lower level cloud element moving east (whether due east OR with an easterly component).
2) At 1545Z, the location of the vort max was at 14.69 / 71.9
3) At 1745Z, the location of the vort max was at 14.75 / 72.9
4) At 1915Z, the location of the vort max was at 14.8 / 73.6
5) So, over a period of 3 hours and 30 minutes, the vort max moved a distance of 114 miles on a heading of 273. So...that is most certainly not NW...and it is also not WNW. It is a hair north of due west...according to the data....give or take a couple of degrees.
6) In order to be moving WNW, it needs to be moving on a 285 heading at least. Due WNW would be 292.5 degrees. NW would be 315. So...the vort max does not even come close to moving WNW.

Now...the problem also is that b/w these fixes...it is moving at 32 mph. That means it will run into central america in less than 24 hours if it does not slow down or gain some poleward motion.

Chances are very good that this little vortmax will race off and die. It happens all the time in decaying systems. The only hope earl has is if another LLC can form under the convection. Now, the convection (as a whole) is also moving W. The perceived motion to the WNW is just new convection forming on the north end of the wave. If you follow the mid-level circulation located near 14.5 / 71...you will see it is also moving at about 275.

This makes sense given the fact the steering flow is due west over the system according to the models. Matter of fact...the small ridge that is ahead of it orientates a little WSW. There is no WNW or NW motion coming out of this system for at least another 24 hours. By then, earl will be approaching the central american coast.

So...if it is moving WNW or NW...my question to those who believe this is...why? Where are the ESE or SE steering currents that are moving this system in that direction. To me, the only explaination is that this is convection forming and moving out in that direction...not the system moving that way as a whole. If it is...where is that steering flow? I don't see it.

[lilbump3000]

Well thanks for clearing all this up air force met.

[x-y-no]

Thanks AFM ... maybe my eyes aren't so bad after all.

And thanks for the information - I really meant it when I said I'm just here trying to learn something - so this kind of post helps me at least.

[Anonymous]

Well well, Earl is trying to form convection over that Mid Level swirl... will be a Central America landfall very soon at the current speed that thing is flying at.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html