Models and trends..

[hial2]

Friends, I know what the models,the NHC Center and the true professional weather forecasters say in this forum,,but

RIGHT NOW, there IS a north component to Earl's track..Although eyes can be deceiving, I say that the component is clearly visible...Just like I was mocked when I said that Charly had prematurely turned north south of Cuba, I see what i see!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

[opera ghost]

It does *look* like it's hopped northwest...

[Guest]

Hial, I hope you are wrong because a northern component brings it too close for comfort for us here in florida.

[Guest]

The center is not well defined at all, therefore it is entirely possible for it to develop well north of it's estimated position. This would most certainly have an effect down the road, hence the huge variance in a tropical prediction 4 days out. It could go anywhere or diminish entirely. It is absolutely silly to even predict a landfall anywhere at this point. Especially not until there is at least a well defined consistent system.

[MWatkins]

You're not nuts...or at least you are just as nuts as the NHC is...

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/WBC/CHGHUR.0408160056

MW

[amawea]

Very interesting run on that water vapor loop. It definatley appears the center of circulation has reformed to the north a bit. Also, the direction looks to be about 290.
Amawea

[rbaker]

don't say reform or relocate, on here, too many people have said that doesn't happen.

[Ground_Zero_92]

Friends, I know what the models,the NHC Center and the true professional weather forecasters say in this forum,,but

RIGHT NOW, there IS a north component to Earl's track..Although eyes can be deceiving, I say that the component is clearly visible...Just like I was mocked when I said that Charly had prematurely turned north south of Cuba, I see what i see!!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

Past experience leads me to trust you eye hial2. Keep posting your observations.

[MWatkins]

don't say reform or relocate, on here, too many people have said that doesn't happen.

LOL...it happens all the time...especially with weak systems. And earl is looking more and more like it is unwinding as the night goes on.

MW

[wxman57]

Very interesting run on that water vapor loop. It definatley appears the center of circulation has reformed to the north a bit. Also, the direction looks to be about 290.
Amawea

Careful with looking for surface features on a WV loop - you're looking at 15,000 to 50,000 ft movements there. However, I agree that it could be the mid-level center is moving NW in response to increasing southerly shear assocated with the upper low to Earl's west. In fact, I wonder if there is still an LLC tonight. Recon just quit after 5 reports. Convection is nearly all gone.

[chrisnnavarre]

Am I close???

[GNWeather]

Earl looks like an open wave, but we shall see what the 11pm Advisory states. Recon before they quit had no westerly winds, just East winds.

[OtherHD]

don't say reform or relocate, on here, too many people have said that doesn't happen.

No, we have said that HURRICANES don't reform centers. Weak tropical storms do it all the time.

[Javlin]

Even if it has reformed N or become an open wave lets not forget Bonnie.

[LaBreeze]

Has the fat lady picked up her opera dress from the cleaners?! I know that tropical systems go through growth and decline stages, but could this be it for Earl? Is Earl just being shy? IMHO I feel as though Earl is just taking a nap. He'll be back.

[rbaker]

no, is was distinct saying that eye's don't reform, not centers. You can have a center on a ts, but a hurricane usually has an eye, at least the well formed one. And any one who says that they can't reform, or reorganize, or want to use any other type of wording, is just plain wrong. I've seen it before aka David in 1979. Reformation of and eye due to interreaction with land mass over high mountain terrain is possible anytime.

[PurdueWx80]

The 12Z Canadian GEM brings Earl back to a storm, takes it across the Yucatan, then slows it in the southern Gulf. After that a weakness forms in the ridge over the Gulf, and it moves slowly north along the Texas coast, and in somewhere near Corpus Christi. Seems like a fairly valid option, but that is nearly a week away so it is just that - another option. If that is the case, Earl could become a big time storm over those warm waters.

[~SirCane]

We'll see. Lot of it depends on where the new center forms and how far it edges to the North.....