11 AM Discussion=It may regenerate again recon tommorow 8 AM

[cycloneye]

Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 12


Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 16, 2004



this morning...a U.S. Air Force Reserve unit reconnaissance aircraft
was unable to find a closed circulation in Earl. This is also
the case with a recent Quikscat pass. So Earl has degenerated into
an open tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea. The wave is
moving west-northwestward at about 22 kt. Surface winds over the
central Caribbean Sea associated with the wave are in the 25 to 35
kt range.

The SHIPS and GFDL models show that conditions are favorable for the
wave to re-intensify into a tropical storm during the next few days
as the system heads for the western Caribbean Sea. This will be
the last advisory unless regeneration occurs. Another
reconnaissance mission is scheduled for tomorrow morning.

Forecaster Lawrence

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 16/1500z tropical wave near 71.0w with 35 kt winds

[~SirCane]

If it regenerates-which is a strong possibility, it will be interesting to see where the new center forms. If it's father to the North-could mean trouble.

[snowflake]

I hope it does not regenerate.

[zoeyann]

I do not think this will stay dead for long. It seems like we seen this senerio a couple of times this tear already. It should still be watched closely.

[~SirCane]

Bonnie reformed in the Gulf after dying out in the Caribbean as a TD.

This Earl wave has more convection than he ever did as a TS!

[Nimbus]

Well the area most likely to develop is just south of 13N so the Belize and the rest of the Yucatan should stay on alert.