If...If..If...

[MWatkins]

IF there is still a LLC with Earl...and there probably is...then it is located to the north and west of the position estimate from the TPC in the latest advisory. If this verifies...then Earl will be about 1 to two degrees to the right of the previous estimates....which suggests the odds of crashing into the Yucatan are going down.

MW

[cycloneye]

No question about that and I agree 100%.

[Stratosphere747]

IF there is still a LLC with Earl...and there probably is...then it is located to the north and west of the position estimate from the TPC in the latest advisory. If this verifies...then Earl will be about 1 to two degrees to the right of the previous estimates....which suggests the odds of crashing into the Yucatan are going down.


Are you saying no to a Belize and south movement...And more to a Y channel and Central GOM movement???

[Brent]

IF there is still a LLC with Earl...and there probably is...then it is located to the north and west of the position estimate from the TPC in the latest advisory. If this verifies...then Earl will be about 1 to two degrees to the right of the previous estimates....which suggests the odds of crashing into the Yucatan are going down.

MW

So you still think Earl has an LLC?

[ColdFront77]

Albeit quite early in the game.. This observation puts the entire western Caribbean and southeastern, eastern and central Gulf of Mexico on guard.

Points further west (central and western Gulf/northern Mexico-Texas) may be considered "on guard" later in the week.

[tw861]

I agree, even if there is no current llc we are probably not done with Earl yet. We have seen this too many times in the last couple of years. Also, the system seems to have slowed down somewhat and this is likely to make a huge difference overnight.

[LaBreeze]

One local met tonight stated that another cold front will be coming in by next Sunday - has anyone else heard of this and is so what are the thoughts on this? Will it save the Western GOM again or ?????

[Frank P]

I agree with the 1 degree north shift of the center, might be as much as 1.5 degrees... convection continues to fire off tonight and looks like Earl is trying to make a decent comback... see if he holds up over time... but as most developing systems, they seem to pulse and cycle convection over time, we see it all the time and this system is no different....

[Wnghs2007]

One local met tonight stated that another cold front will be coming in by next Sunday - has anyone else heard of this and is so what are the thoughts on this? Will it save the Western GOM again or ?????

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PEACHTREE CITY GA
900 PM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004

.LONG TERM...DEEP UPPER TROUGH WILL DEVELOP IN THE MIDWEST TOWARD
THE END OF THE WEEK AND NEXT WEEKEND. THIS IS IN CONTRAST TO
YESTERDAYS GFS SOLUTION WHICH SHOWED A SLOW MOVING CUTOFF FROM OK/TX
SSE TOWARD LA BY NEXT WEEKEND. NOW...GFS SHOWS MUCH MORE OPEN/BROAD
TROUGH SWEEPING MOSTLY THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THIS
WILL...HOWEVER...PUSH ANOTHER FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TOWARD THE END
OF THE WEEK. WITH AMPLE UPPER-LEVEL SUPPORT FOR AUGUST...EXPECT
INCREASING CHANGES FOR SHRA/TSRA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR
TROUGH TO PULL NORTHWARD SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE IN ADVANCE. T.S.
EARL WILL ALSO NEED TO BE WATCHED.

[MWatkins]

IF there is still a LLC with Earl...and there probably is...then it is located to the north and west of the position estimate from the TPC in the latest advisory. If this verifies...then Earl will be about 1 to two degrees to the right of the previous estimates....which suggests the odds of crashing into the Yucatan are going down.


Are you saying no to a Belize and south movement...And more to a Y channel and Central GOM movement???

1. I'd give earl about a 60/40 chance in favor of maintaining a LLC.

2. Yes...a position near 13.5N would diminish a threat to Belize and increase the chance of something coming up the channel and coming NW with time.

If earl is indeed an open wave...then the threat actually increases further west...because redevelopment is very possible.

MW

[ColdFront77]

True, Earl has been slowing down in the last three to six hours. The slowest the system was moving was on Friday;
when it was moving generally westward near 20 mph.

It's fastest speed was 28 mph earlier today and now it is down to 22 mph.

[LaBreeze]

Much thanks Wnghs2007.

[BayouVenteux]

One local met tonight stated that another cold front will be coming in by next Sunday - has anyone else heard of this and is so what are the thoughts on this? Will it save the Western GOM again or ?????

He or she is probably parroting this afternoon's AFD from the Lake Charles office...

UPPER TROF AGAIN DEVELOPS OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE U.S. NEXT WEEKEND THOUGH NOT AS DEEP AS THE CURRENT TROF. ANOTHER FRONT WILL TRY TO PUSH THROUGH THE REGION ON SUNDAY...BUT THIS STILL LOOKS A BIT IFFY. HOW DEEP THE TROF DEVELOPS WILL BE A MAJOR PLAYER AS TO WHERE "EARL" ENDS UP...STAY TUNED

[Stratosphere747]

Thanks M Watkins...

I really value your insight and thoughts....Along with AFM Vet....

And when you are off I promise to not hound you like our beloved media does...

I posted something earlier about what Dr.N.Frank has called the "envelope" on storms that develop as far south as Earl...And tend to take them towards the Yuctan or up through the Y channel...Any ideas on this?? He may have mentioned a certain period but I cannot remember...

[MWatkins]

The argument against a closed low remainig is this. Check out the leading edge of the convective system...these cells are running out ahead of the main convection instead of curving back into it...a classic v-shape indicative of a wave more-so than a tropical storm.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

However...the deep convection is circular. Conflicting signals and a close call.

We'll know more in the morning. Still 60/40 in favor of a closed LLC...

MW

[snowflake]

The Corpus Christi, Texas weather discussion seems to think that Earl will make land fall in Mexico. They think that the second landfall will be between Tampico and Veracruz Mexico. If so the mountains should weaken it faster. They also think that it will be weaker than their earlier forecast.

[Guest]

I dont agree -- I think its 70 30 against a LLC ... and that Earl is NOT even a TD...

The argument against a closed low remainig is this. Check out the leading edge of the convective system...these cells are running out ahead of the main convection instead of curving back into it...a classic v-shape indicative of a wave more-so than a tropical storm.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

However...the deep convection is circular. Conflicting signals and a close call.

We'll know more in the morning. Still 60/40 in favor of a closed LLC...

MW

[chadtm80]

I dont agree -- I think its 70 30 against a LLC ... and that Earl is NOT even a TD...

The argument against a closed low remainig is this. Check out the leading edge of the convective system...these cells are running out ahead of the main convection instead of curving back into it...a classic v-shape indicative of a wave more-so than a tropical storm.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

However...the deep convection is circular. Conflicting signals and a close call.

We'll know more in the morning. Still 60/40 in favor of a closed LLC...

MW

Note: You are disagreeing 11 hours Later

[MWatkins]

I dont agree -- I think its 70 30 against a LLC ... and that Earl is NOT even a TD...

The argument against a closed low remainig is this. Check out the leading edge of the convective system...these cells are running out ahead of the main convection instead of curving back into it...a classic v-shape indicative of a wave more-so than a tropical storm.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

However...the deep convection is circular. Conflicting signals and a close call.

We'll know more in the morning. Still 60/40 in favor of a closed LLC...

MW

Seeing the cloud pattern this morning...I'd even go a little better and 90/10 against. Good deep thunderstorm support but disorganized.

MW