Forecasted Track too Far South...........

[Dean4Storms]

One can simply apply a ruler from the last stated position @ 11:00 am and then the 5pm position and draw a straight line and you extrapolate out to landfall exactly where the NHC track takes you. I can't see it, at some point along the path of Earl he will run into ridge weaknesses and there is no way he will stay on this straight line. I can't see him turning any further w or wsw but one can easily see times where the subtropical ridge should back down allowing him to turn more wnw or even nw. I could be wrong but I'd be very surprised, especially if he deepens rapidly and slows.

The track will come back further north, just a matter of time.

[Rainband]

I hope not

[hial2]

There is an apparent weakness in the high just east of the Bahamas..
No way Earl will make a bee line to the Yucatan!!(IMHO)

[rockythehusky]

That would be soo uncool, after looking at Charley's damage, my moms entire neighborhood, where we were staying, would be gone. That reminds me, I need to update my tracking chart.

[snowflake]

Ridge to the north maybe to strong for Earl to turn to the north late in the forecast period.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... 2031.shtml

[Dean4Storms]

As I indicated in another thread I expected Earl to begin more of a wnw movement either tonight or tomorrow as the ridge nosing into the NE Carib. weakened, it looks to have begun tonight. He may even Stair step to a position near 16n 77w by midday Tues. and shortly thereafter begin a more wnw to nw turn around the ridge just clipping the NE corner of the Yucatan eventually.

The forecasted track is too far south!