Earl Advisories

[bfez1]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 1158W5.gif

[PurdueWx80]

*bump* any comments yet? Sorry, I'm getting impatient.

[chris_fit]

If it sticks together, I'll go with scenerio 2

:-P


~Chris

[Huckster]

I think your second solution is more likely. I just don't see this thing ever getting very far north. I think it was Chantal in 2001 that a lot of people thought would get into the Gulf, but it just kept going west. I think Iris may have been another one which was thought to be Gulf bound. Models keep trending more west and more south. I haven't seen any indication of a change in that. Of course, if there IS a change in that area, everyone will be on it like a pack of wolves. Besides, I think climatology favors further west and south. Not saying it won't make it to the Gulf, just that I think Belize/Yucatan seem more at risk than farther northeast, i.e., Cuba or the U.S. Gulf coast.

[Derek Ortt]

Have to agree with scenario 2, mainly due to its fast motion.

One thing I have learned about these fast moving systems is that the models often overdo the turn and the slowing of the forward speed.

[windwatcher]

If Earl gets picked up, I think your first scenario is a good forcast and I agree with your thinking on that, however I think It would be of a more east-central gulf strike though.

I don't have much confidence in the second scenerio, due to the fact if Earl gets into the BOC, it may be subjected to more shear disrupting the circulation, or may get under the trough and back westard into mexico.

[rbaker]

I think your scenarios are valid esp the first one, I though
have not had as much school as you, I have had alot of experience with tropical systems.
This trough axis that has brought down cold fronts into the gom has been there for almost a month, with record cold in the midwest and southeast, almost like a seasonal setup. And it could be because of the omega blockage of not letting the troughs and ridges maintain their west to east progressions that we normally see, only in the summer usually much further north. I cannot tell you when I last saw a cold front make it past ATL and futher south in July let alone Aug. and ever since then, this feature has been pretty solid over fla, only moving back and forth as a semi stationary boundary. Highly unusual and fall like pattern. Water vapor for last few wks shows it plain as day. That's why here in central fla. we have had very few wks of our typical west coast afternoon showers. We have had more sw flow this summer than anything, and that is why TPA, DAB are 10'' above average in the rain gauge, and places like MIA are below, because the bermuda ridge has been basically stuck down at their latitude for a long time. So as in Charley the ridge blocked its pole ward motion, until it got to the western edge, which is parked over s fla. and then was allowed to follow it nw, n and ne as per explanation above.

[Anonymous]

I have always had a bad feeling about the name Earl

[Sean in New Orleans]

Early call--Abbeville, LA east to Boothville, LA is my prediction. We'll see in a few days, though.

[Sean in New Orleans]

I'll be interested to see the next couple of projected tracks by the NHC.

[Scott_inVA]

Under NO Circumstance should Earl Be Dismissed ANYWHERE along The US Gulf Coast

Sheesh

[mf_dolphin]

AMEN Scott and others. There is absolutely no way to rest assured of a track this far out.

[PurdueWx80]

Actually, my first comments are contingent on a low level center forming under the current MCV/mid level center. That seems to be happening, as convection is maintaining itself there, but if this doesn't happen, a center could form anywhere in the current cloud mass. If that scenario happens, it's a whole new ball game, although my general ideas are still valid, to me.

[kevin]

Well 5pm track I'm thinking will have it crossing Yucatan towards Mexico..

[rbaker]

charley was a fast moving system, and it made the turn, however if Earl keeps moving west at this speed latitude it will be at, will keep it too far south to be picked up north. But if anything we know now, as in Charley, systems going this fast, sometimes have no problem keeping or even slightly intensifying, although not into cat 4 storms. It is not uncommon for these systems at this lat. and location to move at this speed. I will agree that sometimes they have a hard time developing and sometimes even fizzle as we saw with td 2 (Bonnie) open to a wave, only to come back to a td.

[tdess02]

I will be very suprised if the 5pm track is not shifted further south and west. Also, the intensity forecast will probably be lowered. How things cahnge quickly with the models. Just last night, somr of the major models had Earl going into west Florida, now the models take it into Central America. I remember with Charley that some of the initial model runs had Charley going to Central America, but they locked in on Florida after the first couple of runs. Now the models seem to be honing in on Central America. If the next runs continue to show the west and south trend, then it will be very unlikely that Earl will curve up into the GOM.

[Derecho]

Another Gilbert scenario to unfold across Caribbean and GOM. Gilbert was forecast to be picked up by a trough and never did.

By Accuweather; NHC did not, or if they did, they did not persist with the idea as Accuweather did.

[stormcloud]

It's interesting to note that the Sunday 12z GFDL now take Earl into Central America.....

[HurricaneQueen]

Under NO Circumstance should Earl Be Dismissed ANYWHERE along The US Gulf Coast

Sheesh

Well said, Scott. I never would have guessed that Charley would have turned east as fast as he did nor did we expect a CAT 4. We just got our electricity in the last hour and still no phones. All of the food is ruined in refrig and freezer. The outside is a mess and we didn't even get the worst of it. The poor people just a little north of us are devastated and the death toll keeps rising.

I've never written a storm off prematurely and you can bet I won't start now. SW FL is a disaster- we are just now hearing how bad is really was. There is no ice, water, gas (or gas cans for generators). Baby supplies are low in the shelters and tempers are frayed. It can only get worse but I have faith in basic human kindness and know all will eventually get through this.

The most positive thing I can say is that the larger stores (Home Depot, Lowes, etc. have been bringing in generators as quickly as they can (and are sold out immediately). I just bought one and came home to electricity!!! Great timing as usual but at least I'll never be without one again. I've been after my hubby for 20 years to get one-just in case. Currently chain saws are sold out as well.

That's the latest update in a nutshell. I could go on for hours as the only news we have received for three days is local round the clock broadcasting on all the local TV and radio stations on battery operated devices. If anyone has any questions about specific areas please PM me and I'll try to get back to you. Lots to do here to get cleaned up and ready for our Saturday vacation assuming Earl doesn't come this way!

My best to all who suffered so in this terrible storm.
Lynn

[wx247]

Models have a hard time initializing a storm that isn't well developed right??