Earl Advisories

[Rainband]

i think it will be a cat3. has the look

it seems earl is very disorganized which may help it move more west as well

Which is it??

[chrisnnavarre]

very slowly moving up in Lat....needs a good NorthWestward jog over the next 8-12 hours.....

Then I think he may be more of a problem for the Central Gulf....

[PurdueWx80]

Sorry for the annoying "link", I haven't had my Sunday morning coffee yet. Anyway, the UL low is probably going to move west, I was just thinking that since Earl is moving at 28 mph to the west, it would catch up with it. Interesting to note that the Eta is bringing a polar vortex into the NE, but it looks to miss Earl. It, and many other models seem to have a weak upper level low over Texas by the middle/end of next week. I think we will be banking on that bad boy as far as what Earl's ultimate fate is. This will be soo interesting to watch. I'm glad school doesn't start for another week, I don't think I'd get any work done w/ all this action!

[Derek Ortt]

the track does change from about 280 for 72 hours to about 290-300 afterwards. remember, that is only the forecast through 120 hours. If it turns to 315 afterwards, we have a TX landfall

[rainstorm]

the cat3 is for danielle

[Guest]

You are not that accurate yourself Derek.I may critisize NHC from time to time but when it comes down to crunch time, they are the lesser of 2 evils.

[Derek Ortt]

tell that to some in NC

[Dean4Storms]

Looks too far south to me. I expect Earl to begin taking a more wnw movement later tonight and tomorrow as it gets past the ridge nosing into the Neastern Carib. to bring it to a position south of Jamaica near 16n 78w come Tues. afternoon at which he should begin to round the subtropical ridge and turn more poleward in a more NW movement passing just near the NE coast of the Yucatan come midday on Thur. and into the GOM where the trough in the middle of the country will be causing height falls enough to bring him northward toward the upper Gulf Coast.

My take on it for now, but if the subtropical ridge doesn't begin to back down and Earl begin a wnw movement by tomorrow then I can see your forecasted track coming to fruition.

[TLHR]

I predict that in 3 days, Earl will be south of Cuba!

[TLHR]

sarcasm...

[goodlife]

oohh...MIA...I'm not liking that track AT ALL!!
I do NOT want that thing to come over here....nope..no thanks, nu uh, no way!

[Houstonia]

Look at this:

Charley: 21 GMT 08/09/04 11.8N 62.0W 35 1010 Tropical Depression

Earl (current): 15 GMT 08/15/04 11.9N 62.0W 45 1009 Tropical Storm

[LCfromFL]

Here's the 11 am 5 day forecast track. Notice that essentially it's ANYWHERE in the GOM 5 days out...the black dot is pretty much smack dab in the center.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... _5day.html

[Stratosphere747]

Nice...Although Charley was tracking much more WNW at the time and Earl is tracking West (maybe a tad north of west)

[BayouVenteux]

11AM Earl track shifted left. Upper TX Coast and LA may be a threatened area....I would not be surprised to see the slight left trend continue since Earl is so far S.

Let's hope so, Kat. I just got off the phone a little while ago with my mom in Ft. Myers Beach. She and my dad live just before the Matanzas Pass bridge, so they were able to get home yesterday afternoon, and needless to say, they are kind of in a state of shock right now, taking in the enormity of the situation around them. No power, no water, snapped power poles, many trees down and streets scoured from the storm surge. Light to moderate roof and some exterior damage, but otherwise the house is fine. Despite the temporary inconveniences, they are counting their blessings.She said that on the approach into SW Int'l yesterday, you could see the swath of damage across Charlotte county and it was hard to keep from crying.

Let's keep our prayers going for a westward path into Mexico...or better yet, weakening or dissapation. The people of southwest Florida have far more than enough burden to carry right now, and the absolute last thing they need is the added stress of another potential storm in the NW Caribbean/SE Gulf.

[Anonymous]

Here's an excerpt from Slidel (New Orleans) area forecast discussion. They are a bit concerned, but obviously it's a little early to be confident on Earl's path:


REGARDING EARL...LATEST NAVY NOGAPS MODEL PAINTS A DISTURBING
SOLUTION FOR NEXT WEEKEND WHILE THE LONG RANGE GFS LOSES THE FEATURE
IN CENTRAL AMERICA WITH A PIECEMEAL VORTICITY FEATURE MOVING INTO
THE GULF OF MEXICO AND RECURVING HARD RIGHT NEXT WEEKEND. THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE MODELS APPEAR TO HAVE VERY LITTLE SPREAD AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE NORTHWEST CARIBBEAN SEA DURING THE WEEK. THERE
IS NOT MUCH IN THE CONVENTIONAL SYNOPTIC MODELS TO SUGGEST ANY
INHIBITION OF DEVELOPMENT AND TRACKING OF EARL DURING THE WEEK. STAY
TUNED!

[PurdueWx80]

The 12Z GFS has a strong ridge centered over FL and absolutely no sign of Earl whatsoever. It seems to drive it into central America (or doesn't even have the storm, which is very likely). With that ridge over FL, IF true, and IF the storm is in the NW Caribbean or Gulf, it will recurve into TX or LA. Lots of IFs at this time obviously.

[Stormsfury]

one thing to consider. it has never happened before for 4 out of the 1st 5 named storms to become majors. danielle will. will earl?

Wrong.

1950 - The first 6 storms became major hurricanes, and the seventh just missed (110 mph) ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Trop ... s/1950.txt

[PurdueWx80]

I'm thinking of the 2 most likely courses for Earl, and I'll lay them out below. These are my opinions, obviously, but I am an educated meteorologist/grad student, so hopefully I can claim some knowledge about synoptic patterns. PLEASE feel free to add your comments, as I'm sure none of you will be shy to tell me how wrong I am. Here goes:

First things to consider are Earl's near west path, proximity to land, and fast forward motion. These may prevent development for the time being, but there is an upper level low east of Nicaragua that the storm is rapidly approaching. This will impinge some very slight SW or S shear, which should help the storm begin its turn. This will also aid the already perfect northerly outflow jet, and help to enhance the storm. From there:

1. This summer has seen no shortage of amplified 500 mb flow. Take, for instance, the record breaking cold shot of last week. That was poorly forecasted 7-10 days in advance, as have many of the other cool shots this summer. There are indications of an omega block forming over the Pacific NW and SW Canada. If this happens, the polar vortex (can't believe we have a polar vortex this early) should slip further towards the SE, and into the Great Lakes, Ohio/TN Valleys, and NE. With the strong ridge in the subtropical Atlantic making its way west towards Florida, that will enhance the jet in between it and the vortex to its NW. If Earl is anywhere near the NW Caribbean, it should feel the vortex, and shoot off towards the NW and eventually N, even if it strikes the Yucatan first.

The models are hinting at a trough split in a couple of days, with most of it heading off to the NE, but a part backing into TX. This has happened a million and a half times this summer because of the stronger than normal Atlantic ridge, so I don't really doubt that it could happen by Tuesday or Wed. If so, Earl will have more of a chance at recurvature, especially if in the Bay of Campeche or Gulf, becuase of the southwesterly flow ahead of the trough/upper level low. Earl would have a very good chance of striking between Houston and Mobile.

Scenario 2. The storm continues to defy models and forecasters by continuing at 280-290. It is very far south, and moving rapidly west, with little indication of slowing or a turn towards 310 degrees. With the ridge building into the Atlantic, and the vortex pulling further to the NE, rather than into the Ohio/TN Valleys, then the ridge should back further west, into the Gulf or over FL. This would keep Earl on a WNW path for a much longer amount of time, and it would most likely hit Belize or the Yucatan. Some models show the ridge being very strongly centered over FL, in which case, a re-emergence over the Gulf would send it to the NW or NNW, into anywhere from Mexico to Houston-ish.

There are of course some in-between options, but that's where I see it as of now. Everyone in the western half of the Gulf should stay very alert to this, as should folks in Mexico. I've said this a million times now, but the waters in the western Gulf are easily capable of enough energy for a Cat 5, given perfect outflow and low shear. Even if Earl doesn't make it there, the water profile is like gunpowder waiting to explode.

Now, what do you guys think???

[PurdueWx80]

How can they be so sure that those were major hurricanes when there were no weather satellites up in 1950. Sure there are ship and land reports, but I don't really see how that can be totally accurate.