Possible Problem With Earl?

[CalmBeforeStorm]

EARL APPEARS WELL-ORGANIZED ON SATELLITE IMAGES...BUT THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS REPORT THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS NOT VERY
WELL-DEFINED...AND IN FACT RECENT OBSERVATIONS FROM THE PLANE
SUGGEST THAT THE CIRCULATION MAY NOT BE QUITE CLOSED OFF

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Not good for a storm entering the gauntlet at a low latitude to not have a completely closed circulation. A chance it could open up once in the Caribbean.

[lilbump3000]

On satellite like the national hurricane said, this system does look good. That discussion was written about a hour ago. Now look a satellite visible loop. It has gotten better since then. I dont think it will weaken more or open up into a wave. The E caribbean is just a bad place to be in june and july.

[kevin]

This is good news. Hopefully the storm is moving fast enough its not vertically stacked.

[adelphi_sky]

Are we forgetting CHarley? It wasn't well defined. It was racing at a high speed. Not a problem at all. Mother Nature has more patience than some of us. She knows what she's doing. By this time tomorrow, this little "problem" might be a distant memory.

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Are we forgetting CHarley? It wasn't well defined. It was racing at a high speed. Not a problem at all. Mother Nature has more patience than some of us. She knows what she's doing. By this time tomorrow, this little "problem" might be a distant memory.

It probably will not be a problem but Charley had a closed circulation when it entered the Caribbean as witnessed by surface reports and Charley just maintained itself until it got out to about 65 longitude and then only slowly intensified until after 70. Poorly developed storms moving west rapidly at low latitudes have their speed, proximity to land and lack of inflow because of SA against them.

[Hurricane Cheese]

This storm has some of the most impressive outflow I've EVER seen for a tropical storm right now.

Adephi sky is right. Charley was cranking along, looking very similar to Earl right now, and look what he became!!

Only difference I see right now is that Earl will likely hit farther west....either the western gulf coast states or Mexico if it somehow stays south.


NHC brings it into the central gulf by 2 AM Friday with 105 mph sustained winds. This one must be watched, as I fear what it may do and might become...

[PurdueWx80]

I see the lack of inflow as a big problem for major development. Until it can get far enough from SA, which I think looks to happen in less than 24 hours, the feeder bands will have inflow from a land surface. The outflow is very impressive though, and is expanding towards the east in the eastern semicircle, which may be a sign that the strong easterly flow is weakening a bit.