Funny...11 AM Earl dscn

[PTPatrick]

Do I sense some sarcasm, perhaps fear of failure, or maybe playing CYA, in the 11 AM Earl Discussion...

Earl appears well-organized on satellite images...but the hurricane
hunters report that the low-level circulation is not very
well-defined...and in fact recent observations from the plane
suggest that the circulation may not be quite closed off. This is
probably due to the very fast forward motion. The upper-level
outflow has become rather impressive...except to the east. Water
vapor animation suggests that vertical shear will remain low ahead
of the storm...so strengthening is likely. The official forecast
is rather similar to the SHIPS guidance. Late in the period...more
significant strengthening is certainly possible because of the very
favorable oceanic environment. However there is little...if
any...skill in predicting such events.
Based on the earlier aircraft fix...initial motion is 280/24. The
steering environment will be dominated by a strong mid-level ridge
to the north over the next few days. Beyond 72 hours...the track
forecast becomes more problematic. Most of the guidance indicates
that enough of a ridge will be maintained to the north to prevent a
significant right turn. However...the U.K. Met. Office model is an
outlier and does show Earl turning northward over the Gulf by day
5. The current NHC track forecast is a of the guidance save the
aforementioned U.K. Met. Model. It should be borne in mind that
the track error at 120 hours is typically a few hundred miles...so
one should not focus on that exact point.
Forecaster Pasch

[LAwxrgal]

Well, in the face of what happened with Charley, they're admitting they're clueless now?

[mf_dolphin]

In the past few weeks BarometerBob and MWatkins have had several guest including Dr Steve Lyons, Dr Max Mayfield, Joe Bastardi amongst others. They have all said that intensity forecasting is the least understood part of hurricane forecasting. It's not CYA or scarasm it's just the truth.

[Thunder44]

I took notice just after reading it too. It's not really sarcasm, but more of a emphasis. I think it was intentionally put there after the media criticism of intensity and track of Charley.

Also note at the end of discussion:

It should be borne in mind that
the track error at 120 hours is typically a few hundred miles...so
one should not focus on that exact point.

I don't believe it's just a coincidence.

[PTPatrick]

yeah, I didn't mean this post as a crack at the NHC...I just thought it sounded funny, obviously in the wake of Charley they are making sure people understand that this isnt an exact science.

[Stephanie]

It did sound funny PTPatrick, you're right. I think though that having the NHC, NWS, etc. emphasizing this though in their forecasts from now on is a good thing. With that being said, I don't know if that will make people even MORE complacent when there's a potential catastrophe knocking on their door!

[Rainband]

It has never been an exact science and anyone with any knowledge about it knows that. The odd thing I have seen is so many people tried to blame others for their unpreparedness, when I say countless people who didn't even know what evacuation zone they were in. Bottom line is our officials are very good at their jobs but there is only so much they can do. Residents have the responsibility to follow any directions relayed by our local EOCs and make sure they get out when they are told to do so. The Problem with Charley was everyone focused on the red line or black line of the expected path. The cone is the best indication of what could happen. Sometimes the path in the middle is the one taken but as Charley showed us..anyone in or near that cone needs to take the storm seriously. I just hope the residents of the Tampa Bay area take this as a wake up call and Realize what they need to do in the future if a storm threatens us. I fear the degree ofComplacency will only worsen and for that we have no one to blame but ourselves. I have said this countless times, The NHC and our Local media did an awesome job preparing this area for the worst. Now the rest is up to the residents. "You can Lead a horse to water but you can't make him drink"

[GulfBreezer]

With so many people out there so quick on the "blame button" they are just RE-emphasizing what has ALWAYS been true. Those who live on any coast should be responsible enough to gather as much info on these storms as possible and one of the key factors in surviving one is to NEVER under-estimated their potential power.

[Ground_Zero_92]

As I posted in another thread:

I know that if I was in a manditory evacuation zone and police were in the streets on loud PA systems telling all residents that they had to leave, I would leave. I would not base my decision on the current direction or size/category of the hurricane. I agree that our government has the responsibility to protect us. As far as I'm concerned, they adhered to their responsibility by telling me that I was in a hurricane manditory evacuation area and I had to leave.

If I chose not to follow the manditory evacuation order then I gave up their responsible attempt to protect me. If I became injured or killed because of my decision not to leave, I only have myself to blame.

[Stephanie]

Great point Ground Zero!

[wx247]

As I posted in another thread:

I know that if I was in a manditory evacuation zone and police were in the streets on loud PA systems telling all residents that they had to leave, I would leave. I would not base my decision on the current direction or size/category of the hurricane. I agree that our government has the responsibility to protect us. As far as I'm concerned, they adhered to their responsibility by telling me that I was in a hurricane manditory evacuation area and I had to leave.

If I chose not to follow the manditory evacuation order then I gave up their responsible attempt to protect me. If I became injured or killed because of my decision not to leave, I only have myself to blame.

I think that this was right on the $$$. Whether or not the media was focusing on Tampa Bay is not the issue IMHO... all these areas were under hurricane warnings.