11am Earl-45 mph winds still

[Brent]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM EARL ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM AST SUN AUG 15 2004

...EARL ENTERING THE EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA...

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BARBADOS HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR BARBADOS. A TROPICAL STORM WARNING
REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES...THE
GRENADINES...ST.VINCENT...AND ST. LUCIA. INTERESTS AROUND THE
EASTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

AT 11 AM AST...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 11.9 NORTH... LONGITUDE 62.0 WEST OR ABOUT 25
MILES... 40 KM...SOUTHWEST OF GRENADA.

EARL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST NEAR 28 MPH ...44 KM/HR...AND A
WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 45 MPH... 75 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85 MILES
...140 KM FROM THE CENTER. SOME WIND GUSTS TO TROPICAL STORM FORCE
IN SQUALLS MAY STILL OCCUR OVER PORTIONS OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1009 MB...29.80 INCHES.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
EARL.

REPEATING THE 11 AM AST POSITION...11.9 N... 62.0 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 28 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 45 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 2 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM
AST.

[Brent]

Hmmmmmmm......

Tropical Storm Earl Discussion Number 8

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 15, 2004

Earl appears well-organized on satellite images...but the hurricane
hunters report that the low-level circulation is not very
well-defined...and in fact recent observations from the plane
suggest that the circulation may not be quite closed off. This is
probably due to the very fast forward motion. The upper-level
outflow has become rather impressive...except to the east. Water
vapor animation suggests that vertical shear will remain low ahead
of the storm...so strengthening is likely. The official forecast
is rather similar to the SHIPS guidance. Late in the period...more
significant strengthening is certainly possible because of the very
favorable oceanic environment. However there is little...if
any...skill in predicting such events.
Based on the earlier aircraft fix...initial motion is 280/24. The
steering environment will be dominated by a strong mid-level ridge
to the north over the next few days. Beyond 72 hours...the track
forecast becomes more problematic. Most of the guidance indicates
that enough of a ridge will be maintained to the north to prevent a
significant right turn. However...the U.K. Met. Office model is an
outlier and does show Earl turning northward over the Gulf by day
5. The current NHC track forecast is a of the guidance save the
aforementioned U.K. Met. Model. It should be borne in mind that
the track error at 120 hours is typically a few hundred miles...so
one should not focus on that exact point.

Forecaster Pasch

forecast positions and Max winds

initial 15/1500z 11.9n 62.0w 40 kt
12hr VT 16/0000z 12.9n 65.3w 45 kt
24hr VT 16/1200z 14.0n 69.5w 50 kt
36hr VT 17/0000z 15.3n 73.4w 55 kt
48hr VT 17/1200z 16.5n 76.9w 60 kt
72hr VT 18/1200z 18.5n 82.5w 70 kt
96hr VT 19/1200z 21.0n 86.5w 80 kt
120hr VT 20/1200z 24.0n 89.0w 90 kt