Earl Advisories

[Nimbus]

Little or no shear expected and a fast track through 48 hours. Sounds like Earl might have an eye by the time it reaches Jamaica. I'm wondering if an earlier spin up will cause an earlier track slowing and recurve?

[abajan]

Well, it's been a rather breezy night with frequent flashes of lightning and some thunder from a few of the flashes but not a tremendous amount of rain.

It's still gusty now but nothing to be overly concerned about.

Even though Barbados is still under a TS warning, this will probably be my final report on Earl as it is clearly moving well to our south and quite quickly too.

[Thunder44]

Earl developed much sooner than Charley so it can be a stronger storm in the Carribean than Charley was. Although Earl, is looking elongated this morning.

[cycloneye]

Abajan Barbados dodged a bullet although not a hurricane but the strongest winds were not felt there apart from the heavy downpours.

[TampaFl]

Interesting comments regarding Earl after day three in the future track. As always, Thoughts and comments welcomed.

Tropical Storm EARL

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000
WTNT45 KNHC 150856
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004

WHILE THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINS ELONGATED
SLIGHTLY EAST-WEST...THE AMOUNT AND QUALITY OF DEEP CONVECTION NEAR
THE CENTER HAS INCREASED SIGNIFICANTLY THIS MORNING. THE DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND SAB IS A CONSENSUS
T3.0...OR 45 KT. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY INCREASED TO 40 KT
BASED ON THE LACK OF CONSISTENT BANDING FEATURES. AIR FORCE RECON
WILL BE INVESTIGATING EARL LATER THIS MORNING.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 280/22. MOST OF
THE CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE SATELLITE POSITION ESTIMATES SUGGEST
THAT EARL IS MOVING MORE WESTWARD AND IS...THEREFORE...SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS POSITIONS AND FORECAST TRACK. AS MENTIONED IN PREVIOUS
DISCUSSIONS...EARL IS EXPECTED TO MOVE BASICALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE STRONG SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE
NORTH OF THE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS AND INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO. THE
INITIAL TRACK WAS ADJUSTED A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK
THROUGH 72 HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE SOUTHERLY LOCATION. AFTER
72 HOURS...THE TRACK FORECAST BECOMES A LITTLE MORE COMPLICATED.
THE NHC MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY EVENLY SPLIT BETWEEN TAKING EARL
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE YUCATAN OR NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD INTO
THE EAST CENTRAL GULF OR EVEN NEAR THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE. ALL OF
THE MODELS AGREE ON ANOTHER TROUGH DIGGING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM THE
ROCKIES INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS BY DAY 5...CAUSING THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO RETREAT EASTWARD TO FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN GULF. THIS MAY
RESULT IN EARL SLOWING DOWN SIGNIFICANTLY AND TURNING MORE
NORTHWESTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE AND IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFS...
NOGAPS...AND UKMET SOLUTIONS...ONLY MUCH SLOWER THAN THE UKMET.

WITH LITTLE OR NO SHEAR EXPECTED TO AFFECT EARL...SOME SLOW
INTENSIFICATION IS FORECAST THROUGH 48 HOURS SINCE THE CYCLONE IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING AT A FAIRLY FAST FORWARD SPEED. AFTER
EARL SLOWS DOWN IN THE LATER TIME PERIODS...MORE SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE AS THE CYCLONE WILL BE MOVING OVER MUCH
WARMER WATER IN THE CENTRAL AND NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA.
FORECASTER STEWART

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 15/0900Z 11.7N 59.1W 40 KT
12HR VT 15/1800Z 12.7N 62.3W 45 KT
24HR VT 16/0600Z 13.9N 66.5W 50 KT
36HR VT 16/1800Z 15.0N 70.6W 55 KT
48HR VT 17/0600Z 16.1N 74.4W 60 KT
72HR VT 18/0600Z 18.3N 80.3W 70 KT
96HR VT 19/0600Z 20.5N 84.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 20/0600Z 24.0N 87.0W 90 KT


$$




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[ChaserUK]

certainly a wide scope of potential landfall sites there I have to say. What do you favour most?

[cycloneye]

000
URNT11 KNHC 151032
97779 10324 10165 63200 56300 10019 54//2 /4591
RMK AF985 0105A EARL OB 01


Ok they haved started the morning mission as they departed ST Croix.First ob was at 16.5n-63.2w well away from the center.

[LCfromFL]

This is definately the one to watch. Models are currently split. Will he be a Tex/Mex storm? FL threat? Somewhere in the middle? All eyes will be on Earl during the next week.

http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html

[cycloneye]

000
URNT11 KNHC 151104
97779 11044 10148 61600 56100 07034 55598 /4590
83514 82515
RMK AF985 0105A EARL OB 03

14.8n-61.6w still NNW of the center by about 200 miles.

[LCfromFL]

Hey Cycloneye -

Do you have something that can help me translate those recon messages?
(I really need to get me one of those decoder rings)

Thanks!

[cycloneye]

Hey Cycloneye -

Do you have something that can help me translate those recon messages?
(I really need to get me one of those decoder rings)

Thanks!

http://www.hurricanehunters.com/recco.htm

At link above you will see all the explanation about all the numbers you see in those observations.

[LCfromFL]

It will be interesting to see what the models do with this later today (well, and for the next several days).

...and to think...folks were lamenting a dull season!

[LCfromFL]

Thanks bunches!

I now have my secret decoder ring!

[TampaFl]

My pearsonal thoughts are that I hope it stays as far south as possible and not even get into the GOM. After just going through with what we went through with Hurricane Charley, we could use a break. But it looks like there may be the chance it does arrive in the GOM later this week. So all interest should keep a close eye on Earl. As seen this past Friday, Mother Nature will do what ever she feels like doing, no matter how well the models tell us that a storm will hit here or there. This could have been us that took the direct hit (as was previously forecasted). As some one on the local tv station said yesterday and I quote " It is as if some one took a bullet for us". Our thoughts and prayers go out to evryone in Central and Southwest Florida.

Robert

[Cyclone Runner]

Useful Reports from St Vincent and Barbados about Earl's progress are coming in here:

http://stormcarib.com/index.htm#disc


Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

http://www.afap.org/apcedi
http://www.afap.org/
http://www.birdquest.net/

[Thunder44]

URNT11 KNHC 151129
97779 11294 10134 61500 03800 07039 26228 /0014 40525
RMK AF985 0105A EARL OB 04

7:29am EDT
13.4N 61.5W
Flight Level Winds: ENE at 39kts
Surface Winds: 25kts
Pressure: 1014mb

[GalvestonDuck]

Summing up everyones thoughts currently, Earl could be a major cane when it landfalls some where between Baton Rouge and the Florida Keys. People need to watch this carefully.

When did Baton Rouge move to the coast??? LOL...

The same time Houston did.

[GalvestonDuck]

Right off the SW FL Coast...

I know it's just a long range prediction but it's still somewhat disturbing to see.


https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/products/WXM ... oplant.gif

Even if it were right on, it doesn't show landfall. Could it be moving NNW away from FL after brushing along the SW coast? All sorts of possibilities and too far out to call.

[Derecho]

Old run now. NGP is now in central GOM heading for LA.

However, all models are constantly shifting Southwards now. And the northernmost model currently (the UKMET) with a Panhandle landfall, is ALREADY wrong; Earl is running South of it.

GFDL is into the Yucatan, and then barely into the Bay of Campeche.

[cycloneye]

Statement as of 8:00 am AST on August 15, 2004



...Earl moving through the Windward Islands...
At 8 am AST...1200z...the government of Barbados has changed the
Tropical Storm Warning to a tropical storm watch for Barbados.
A Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for Trinidad...
Tobago...Grenada and its dependencies...The Grenadines...St.
Vincent...and St. Lucia. Interests around the eastern Caribbean
Sea should closely monitor the progress of Earl.

At 8 am AST...1200z...the center of Tropical Storm Earl was
located near latitude 11.8 north...longitude 60.8 west or about
65 miles... 105 km... east-southeast of Grenada.

Earl is moving toward the west near 25 mph...41 km/hr...and a motion
to the west or west-northwest is expected for the next 24 hours. On
this track...the center of the storm will move into the southeastern
Caribbean Sea today. Bands of squalls will continue to affect the
Windward Islands today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph... 75 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours. An
Air Force hurricane hunter plane is currently investigating Earl.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 85 miles
...140 km from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb...29.68 inches.

Rainfall totals of 3 to 5 inches are likely in association with
Earl.

Repeating the 8 am AST position...11.8 N... 60.8 W. Movement
toward...west near 25 mph. Maximum sustained winds... 45 mph.
Minimum central pressure...1005 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 am AST.

Forecaster Pasch


No big changes at this advisory but by 11 AM let's see what recon has found and there may be some changes in intensity.