NWS AFD Key West

[TampaFl]

MMMMMMMMM, Thoughts and comments welcomed.

FXUS62 KEYW 150730
AFDEYW

FLORIDA KEYS AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
330 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2004

.DISCUSSION...
.OBSERVATIONS/TRENDS...
SHORTLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT...A FAIRLY LARGE CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BETWEEN SOUTHEAST FLORIDA...THE UPPER KEYS AND ANDROS
ISLAND...TRIGGERED NUMEROUS OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. SOME OF THESE
BOUNDARIES BECAME ACTIVE WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MIGRATING ACROSS THE ISLAND CHAIN AND SURROUNDING WATERS. IN
FACT...CURRENTLY ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE TRACKING WESTWARD OVER
THE ISLAND CHAIN AND SURROUNDING WATERS. WITH A STEADY EAST
FLOW...TEMPERATURES ARE HOLDING IN THE LOWER AND MID 80S OVER THE
FLORIDA KEYS. ON THE MARINE DISTRICT...THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES
RESULTED IN MODERATE EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS OF AROUND 15
KNOTS...WITH A SLOW DECREASING TREND UNDERWAY.

.FORECASTS...
THE UNUSUAL AND DEEP...MID LATITUDE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE UPPER
GREAT LAKES INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF OF MEXICO TODAY...WILL
FINALLY LIFT NORTHWARD...AS THE SUBTROPICAL DEEP LAYERED WESTERN
ATLANTIC RIDGE BECOMES ESTABLISHED OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA AND
THE SURROUNDING ATLANTIC AND GULF OF MEXICO WATERS. MEANWHILE...A
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) EXTENDING FROM THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...TO ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST BAHAMAS AND INTO THE CARIBBEAN
WILL BE PICKED UP BY THE AFOREMENTIONED MID LATITUDE TROUGH.
MEANWHILE...TROPICAL SYSTEM EARL IS EXPECTED TO RACE INTO THE
EXTREME EASTERN CARIBBEAN TONIGHT...AND CONTINUE TO TRACK WEST
NORTHWEST THROUGH THE CARIBBEAN...AND SOUTH OF CUBA WEDNESDAY.
ALTHOUGH THERE ARE INDICATIONS OF THE RIDGE WEAKENING SOMEWHAT IN
THE GULF OF MEXICO...MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE
HOLDING THE TRACK FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST THAN HURRICANE CHARLEY.
HOWEVER...FOR NOW...WITH PLENTY OF UNCERTAINTY ON THE EXACT TRACK
AND INTENSITY...WILL MAINTAIN CLIMO POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. UNTIL
THEN...MODERATE MID AND UPPER LEVEL SUBSIDENCE SHOULD PROMPT
SCATTERED AVERAGE POPS...SUBSEQUENTLY...WILL UNDERCUT MAV POPS AND
LEAN TOWARD MET #S.
&&
.MARINE...
A WEAK ATLANTIC RIDGE WILL EXTEND ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA OVER
THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS...AS TROPICAL SYSTEM EARL TRACKS THROUGH THE
CARIBBEAN SEA. SUBSEQUENTLY...WILL MAINTAIN LIGHT TO GENTLE MOSTLY
EAST WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY. THEREAFTER...WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE
GRADIENT...WILL MAINTAIN MODERATE EAST WINDS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
PRECIPITATION COVERAGE WILL VARY BETWEEN ISOLATED AND SCATTERED
ACROSS ALL KEYS WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
WITH A DEEPENING EASTERLY FLOW...ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SURELY CIRCUMNAVIGABLE...ARE EXPECTED FOR THE ENTIRE
ROUTE FROM IN AND AROUND KEY WEST TO BEYOND MIAMI...INCLUDING THE
MARATHON TERMINAL.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 90 83 90 83 90 /30 30 30 30 30
MARATHON 92 83 92 83 92 /30 30 30 30 30
&&

.EYW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC/MARINE.......APA
AVIATION/NOWCASTS...S. DAIDA