Independent Investigation

[Lindaloo]

Perhaps you missed this on TV, but I could have sworn I saw police officers in their vehicles going through mobile home parks down there telling them there was a mandetory evacuation and they needed to get out. I also saw where police officers were going door to door. Hmmmmmm

[seaswing]

I believe that you saw that on TV but you have to ask yourself why they didn't evacuate. There are many more reasons other than they didn't believe it was 'that bad'. Many were afraid to leave eveything they owened and some prtection instinct kicked in. Foolish choice maybe but some felt they had no real options. Remember the sights after Andrew? the looting, the National Guard there just to protect the homes that had anything left in them? kids outside of their family home holding a gun? people remember that very well and along with the fact that they didn't feel safe, or felt they didn't have other options, stayed. Remember, a storm like this hasn't hapeened on the west side of Fl in a very long time!

[Mello1]

Perhaps you missed this on TV, but I could have sworn I saw police officers in their vehicles going through mobile home parks down there telling them there was a mandetory evacuation and they needed to get out. I also saw where police officers were going door to door. Hmmmmmm

In Porta Gunta? So it was mandatory then?

[WESTCHESTERPA]

Has worked hard and has been saving money for many years to buy a second home in Florida. In late July, just several weeks ago, he realized his dream and closed on a home in Florida. His house is located just across Alligator Bay, about 600 yards, down one of the canals, from Charlotte Harbor. The Eye passed directly over his house. Fortunately, he was in New England at the time. He has not heard word on the damage to his property, although just received a message that the house next to his was completely leveled, which makes it highly likely that his was as well. Anyhow, how about that for bad luck!

[corpusbreeze]

I believe the only fault of the government is the lack of education to the general public about hurricanes. And it is really kind of hard to fault them at that. The NHC does a fine job, but it is not a perfect science, nor will it be ever. This may come as a shock to those of this board, but the mass general public don't really keep up or care about hurricanes until they are on there front yard. They are ignorant, and I don't mean it in a rude way, but as a fact. They see the line drawn to certain area and think that where the storm going and turn away back to their normal lives. They don't under stand that line changes and the wide margin for error. I think education is the key to saves lives.

[flashflood1998]

as an admitted weather junkie with no formal weather science training, i find myself here on the storm2k boards whenever a significant hurricane event occurs, tracking the official forecasts while monitoring the discussion points. i rarely post, but i had to chime in about this topic....

anybody who is on here to second guess the actions of the NHC this week with charley must either be trolling the forum or should really get their head checked. destruction of property was inevitable regardless of the predicted landfall. so, the discussion point is really the loss of human and animal life and how the NHC and local officials should have done more to limit these casualties. DIDN'T THEY? were they supposed to mandatorily evacuate the entire state of florida up to georgia for the weekend? with all of the warnings and watches for at least a cat3, along with the media in panic mode, there was nobody without an opportunity to put their own evacuation plan into action days before, especially ALL of those in coastal manufactured housing or living on barrier islands. yeah, over the years, this may result in a lot of false alarms and you may get tired of doing it, but it's the only true plan for safety. it bothers me that some people actually think more bureaucracy is the solution to problems. most of the time, it only screws things up more.

[BayouVenteux]

I think one of the more revealing sound bites heard yesterday was a Charlotte County gentleman who halfheartedly quipped to a reporter from a Tampa television station, "I thought it was supposed to be YOUR storm."

Funny, I personally don't recall any statements from the National Hurricane Center or local NWS that dropped or downgraded warnings for the Lee /Charlotte Co. area prior to landfall.

I do however, recall a media frenzy in the 48 hours preceding Charley's arrival emphasized by such headlines as "Charley Takes Dead Aim on Tampa", "Tampa Worst-Case Scenario May Become a Reality", etc. The national broadcast media seemed to grab on to the prospect of a Tampa direct hit like a dog on steak...to any network news director, a large population center taking a forecasted major hurricane landfall was undoubtedly a story with "legs".

Is it possible that the deluge of TV hype and infotainment masquerading as information could have influenced some people in the area that was ultimately impacted to become complacent, mistakenly thinking that there was no chance this was going to be "their" storm? This is not to blame the media, after all, the individual must ultimately make the decision whether to, put himself and/or his family in harm's way or seek safe shelter.

Granted, from what I have seen, many of the local broadcast stations (WBBH channel 2 for example) acted responsibly and served the community admirably, but consider that you have a sizable population of elderly people, most of who come from outside of the area and may have generally watched CNN or FOX News more than the Fort Myers stations. (I have some personal experience in this area, as my 72-year old dad and his general TV viewing prefs will attest)

Having watched both cable networks during the 6-12 hours prior to landfall yesterday, I can only ponder on what I witnessed, and sadly go, as per another frequent poster...hmmmm.

[mf_dolphin]

The improvements in hurricane forcasting have been outstanding over the last 20 years but to expect pinpoint accuracy is just lunacy at this point in time. The folks along the path of Charley were given plenty of warning and only have themselves and mother nature to blame. Even those in the inland counties accross had hurricane warnings. While I agree that the government is charged with providing the best information possible I see no evidence that they failed in this respect. People also owe their government to take heed of the warnings and information provided.

[bsuwx]

This particular hurricane's approach angle made it very difficult to pin down a "landfall point."

Even if this science is becoming more understood, it is not our government's job to relocate you 24 hrs before hurricane force winds approach. For goodness sakes, statistics on Hurricane Charlie have been scrolling across the bottom of my Television screen here in n'awlins for a week...we knew something was on the way without even trying to know.


btw - psu wx, I go to Ball State, just across the road in Muncie. I'm minoring in Meteorology. Purdue is a great WX school![/i]

[countbob]

If you live in a moble home or a house that is less than bullet proof, you have to heed hurricane warnings and get out. The warnings were issued.

Being inconvenienced is so much better than losing your life.

-cb

[Mello1]

I believe the only fault of the government is the lack of education to the general public about hurricanes. And it is really kind of hard to fault them at that. The NHC does a fine job, but it is not a perfect science, nor will it be ever. This may come as a shock to those of this board, but the mass general public don't really keep up or care about hurricanes until they are on there front yard. They are ignorant, and I don't mean it in a rude way, but as a fact. They see the line drawn to certain area and think that where the storm going and turn away back to their normal lives. They don't under stand that line changes and the wide margin for error. I think education is the key to saves lives.

I agree 100%. Education and awareness, just like what they do for tornado safety. I also think that the lack of a major storm in recent years help adds to complacency.

[Mello1]

I do however, recall a media frenzy in the 48 hours preceding Charley's arrival emphasized by such headlines as "Charley Takes Dead Aim on Tampa", "Tampa Worst-Case Scenario May Become a Reality", etc. The national broadcast media seemed to grab on to the prospect of a Tampa direct hit like a dog on steak...to any network news director, a large population center taking a forecasted major hurricane landfall was undoubtedly a story with "legs".

Is it possible that the deluge of TV hype and infotainment masquerading as information could have influenced some people in the area that was ultimately impacted to become complacent, mistakenly thinking that there was no chance this was going to be "their" storm? This is not to blame the media, after all, the individual must ultimately make the decision whether to, put himself and/or his family in harm's way or seek safe shelter.

Granted, from what I have seen, many of the local broadcast stations (WBBH channel 2 for example) acted responsibly and served the community admirably, but consider that you have a sizable population of elderly people, most of who come from outside of the area and may have generally watched CNN or FOX News more than the Fort Myers stations. (I have some personal experience in this area, as my 72-year old dad and his general TV viewing prefs will attest)

Having watched both cable networks during the 6-12 hours prior to landfall yesterday, I can only ponder on what I witnessed, and sadly go, as per another frequent poster...hmmmm.

Exactly the point. And one of those stations that you mentioned is notorious for overhyping and sensationalism.

[SouthernWx]

the fatal error, IMO, was not with regard to strike cone, but intensity.

Friend, there is no way to accurately forecast explosive deepening of a hurricane....that's WHY coastal residents in low lying areas ESPECIALLY in south Florida should ALWAYS evacuate when a hurricane warning is issued.

I had a feeling that Charley might explosively deepen before impacting the Florida coast....but it wasn't based on computer models. Instead it was 30 years of research into Florida's hurricane climatology. I was afraid it would happen because it's happened before....the 1935 Labor Day hurricane and Andrew prime examples.

I was alarmed because this hurricane took a very unusual path for August...a path that brought it into the shallow waters just offshore Tampa and Fort Myers with sst's at their summer peak. Saying that, even I was having my doubts yesterday morning. Charley didn't deepen explosively between Grand Cayman and Cuba as I thought it would. Charley didn't intensify any after entering the Gulf of Mexico....

In fact, yesterday morning Charley looked like a hurricane that had ingested some dry air...even as it was abeam of Dry Tortugas and Key West. At that moment (8-9 a.m.), I was beginning to think maybe we'd escape a major landfalling hurricane again....until a recon vortex fix at 10:03 a.m. confirmed my worst fears. The recon reported a 5 mb drop in central pressure in 1 hour 45 minutes, along with a 4°C rise in the eye temperature.

I realized at that moment (10:30 or so), that Charley was in the proces of deepening....but my God man, that was less than 5 hours before landfall. I went to lunch thinking Charley might be a 125 mph hurricane at landfall, but NEVER in my wildest nightmare imagined Charley would "go crazy" and deepen from 110 mph to 155 mph in 4 hours (and yes, flight level winds and Nexrad data indicate max sustained winds at landfall were 150-155 mph).

I've researched and studied hurricanes since age 12....over 30 years now, and I saw something occur yesterday that I thought was impossible. "Rapid deepening" is defined as a hurricane's central pressure falling 2 mb an hour or more....the record for an Atlantic hurricane is about 3 mb an hour...or I should say WAS.

Here are the vortex fixes as the hurricane deepened....and it's record breaking..

1219z (8:19 a.m.) 970 mb
1403z (10:03 a.m.) 965 mb
1522z (11:22 a.m.) 964 mb
1702z (1:02 p.m.) 954 mb
1833z (2:33 p.m.) 946 mb
1904z (3:04 p.m.) 943 mb
1952z (3:52 p.m.) 941 mb

The central pressure fell 29 mb in the space of 7 1/2 hours...or 4 mb an hour. Even more incredible, the pressure fall from 964 mb to 943 mb occurred in 3 1/2 hrs....a deepening rate of 6 mb an hour.

Usually when a hurricane deepens rapidly, it takes the wind speed time to "catch up" with the falling pressure....but not in this hurricane. Flight level winds increased from 116 mph to 162 mph in 3 hours. That means surface winds likely increased from 105 mph to 145 mph in the same time frame.

Friends, there is no model and no man on earth who can predict that type of deepening with accuracy. Even the GFDL which tends to "overhype" the wind speed only brought the hurricane to 136 mph at landfall...not even close to the 150+ that occurred.

Some may blame the National Hurricane Center....some will blame local EMA offices, but the fact of the matter is the resposibility belongs, in most cases...the individual who lives on the coast.
I've preached hurricane preparedness and history on these wx boards since 2000....warning residents of southern Florida just how dangerous it was; just how fast a hurricane could explode before landfall...how high the storm surge would be along the Florida west coast; and how many lives would be lost if warnings and evacuation orders from barrier islands and low lying inland areas weren't heeded by apathetic residents who ignored history.

People down there had better wake up....because it could have been even worse. Charlotte county is the LEAST populated coastal county along the Florida west coast south of St Pete. We were lucky that Charley was extremely small...even smaller than Andrew. If Charley were as large as Camille, Fort Myers and Sarasota would look just like Charlotte Harbor and Punta Gorda. If Charley had been as large as Hugo or Floyd, everything from Tampa Bay to the Keys would be devastated.

I hope and pray I'm wrong, but my honest feeling is we've now entered a new cycle of major landfalling Florida hurricanes. I didn't feel this way after Andrew in 1992, but have a totally different feeling today. Between 1926 and 1950, southern Florida was hit by a major hurricane 11 times in 25 years....Miami and most of south Florida leveled by a monster hurricane in 1926, and Palm Beach and most of the east coast only two years later. I fear Florida will see the same type of activity during the coming two decades....just like the Gulf Coast experienced between 1961 and 1983, and just like the Carolinas experienced between 1984 and 2003.

One other point....I was scoffed at a few times since 2000 when trying to warn Floridians in the interior of what a powerful hurricane could mean for them. If the 140 mph gusts in southern Polk county and the 105 mph gust last night at Orlando International airport doesn't convince you what can happen.... I don't know what will.

The only blame I place on NHC/TPC?
They should have upgraded Charley to a major hurricane (cat-3) on the 11 a.m. advisory...based on evidence of rapid deepening underway. Saying that, I can't fault them for not forecasting Charley to reach cat-4. No one had the ability to predict a 45 mph increase in surface wind speed in less than 5 hours. No one alive could have known that was coming...it's beyond the state of the art (and an event that I didn't believe possible).

Just my .02 cents worth....

PW

[Janie34]

The improvements in hurricane forcasting have been outstanding over the last 20 years but to expect pinpoint accuracy is just lunacy at this point in time. The folks along the path of Charley were given plenty of warning and only have themselves and mother nature to blame. Even those in the inland counties accross had hurricane warnings. While I agree that the government is charged with providing the best information possible I see no evidence that they failed in this respect. People also owe their government to take heed of the warnings and information provided.

Well said. The NHC did its job. All of those areas were well-warned and I think NOAA did its best to disseminate the information. Over the years NOAA has spent a lot of time and money educating the public on the dangers of tropical cyclones...thats beyond dispute.

State and local governments are responsible for the evacuations, not the NHC. As I and many others have said, intensity forecasts are notoriously difficult to make. I think it is beyond the capability of the emergency management folks to evacuate thousands of people on a few hours notice, just before landfall. Its absurd. If anything needs to be investigated, its the big media conglomerates who hyped and sensationalised this tragedy. People should have heeded the warnings in place. If they had followed the wise advise from NHC and their local emergency management officials, more folks might be alive right now. Its a terrible situation, but I'm not going to point fingers at NHC. Meanwhile this "blame game" is distracting attention from where it needs to be.

[Aslkahuna]

First off, there is plenty of information about hurricanes, as well as the difficulty in forecasting them, written for the Layman and avilable in either book form or on the Net or from one's local NWS office. They all emphasize one thing, when a warning is issued it is time to follow the recommended safety procedures-the first two of which are; if located near the coast, immediately evacuated inland and away from rivers if inland. The second says that if you live in a Mobile Home Abandon it immediately and seek shelter in a more substantial structure or designated shelter-DO NOT ATTEMPT TO RIDE OUT A HURRICANE IN A MOBILE HOME!

It is incumbent upon people who live in danger zones to familiarize themselves with the threat a given phenomenom poses to them. I was born in California, I have made myself knowledgeable about earthquakes and volcanoes, I lived for a while in Tornado Alley (from which I got my interest in chasing storms) so I know about severe convective storms, I lived in the Philippines so I learned about Tropical Systems. Bottom line being that if you live in a hurricane prone region, you are stupid if you don't take the time out to learn about them and limitations of forecasting them. An excellent book for the layman in "Hurricane Watch" by Dr. Bob Sheets (NHC Director during Andrew) and Jack Williams-read it then maybe you won't be so critical. Rapid intensification of storms is a poorly understood process and involves the entire range of storm scale from the micro to the macro. Clearly, the interaction with the upper level trough had something to do with it-something we've noted in WPAC for years (one reason why it's good to follow the Tropics elsewhere) but that's not the only thing since Atlantic storms have processes not seen in the Pacific and vice versa. That "sudden jog" in the track looked to me to be a whole 10-20 degree change in heading which, given the oblique angle of approach meant the difference between hitting Tampa and hitting Punta Gorda. When such a change in heading occurs, it is not always immediately evident that this is not a wobble caused by the cycloidal motion a storm frequently has as it approaches land because of diffrential
friction effects. Also, such a heading change can be within the margin of error of the observed positions since although the Recon uses GPS positioning, the positioning of the surface center still depends upon visually identifying the center on the sea surface from the wave patterns
and then getting the fix at that precise location while travelling at 300kt at altitude in a 5 mile diameter eye.

Finally, I bring this book to a close by saying that NOAA itself will most likely conduct a post storm analysis and review (as will FEMA) and assigned it to a branch different from NWS and TPC (probably AOML under Chris Landsea).

Steve

[Stormchaser16]

Havent read all the posts here because i simply dont have time to....

BUT the bottom line is the 11AM advisory with charley at cat 2 was BULLSH*T!!!!! Anyone who does not udnerstand this has less then half a brain. This thing did not randomly bomb from cat 2 to 4 in 2.5 hours...... at 11am Friday morning, the NHC DID NOT WANT TO upgrade any further, even though data CLEARLY and 100% showed a stronger system. THIS WAS A FATAL ERROR(im going off on DT style rant, because you guys need it).......... Forecasting intensity is NEVER an easy thing to do, but the NHC didnt mess up in this area, they messed up in NOT upgrading it to a CAT 3 at 11am advisory. CLEARLY A MISTAKE. And one that cost many lives because like DT said, EM lost those 2.5 hours to prepare, "people take a cat 4 very differently then a cat 2" says DT. And its totally true. In this aspect, EVERYONE has a reason to rant at the NHC for not upgrading the system.

[Derecho]

Havent read all the posts here because i simply dont have time to....

BUT the bottom line is the 11AM advisory with charley at cat 2 was BULLSH*T!!!!! Anyone who does not udnerstand this has less then half a brain. This thing did not randomly bomb from cat 2 to 4 in 2.5 hours...... at 11am Friday morning, the NHC DID NOT WANT TO upgrade any further, even though data CLEARLY and 100% showed a stronger system. THIS WAS A FATAL ERROR(im going off on DT style rant, because you guys need it).......... Forecasting intensity is NEVER an easy thing to do, but the NHC didnt mess up in this area, they messed up in NOT upgrading it to a CAT 3 at 11am advisory. CLEARLY A MISTAKE. And one that cost many lives because like DT said, EM lost those 2.5 hours to prepare, "people take a cat 4 very differently then a cat 2" says DT. And its totally true. In this aspect, EVERYONE has a reason to rant at the NHC for not upgrading the system.

People who think Cat 4 officially an hour earlier would have made any sort of difference in preparation are living in a delusional fantasy world.

The ACTUAL legitimate NHC mistake for which they deserve criticism are the watches/warnings for the Florida E Coast at 11AM, but that's barely mentioned.

People who have moronic personal evacuation criteria based on the Saffir-Simpson scale are, plain and simple, idiots.


I've seen that REPEATEDLY in media interviews and on board postings and chats for the past 10 years "oh, I'll stay for a 2, but leave for a 3" and similar such garbage. These people seem to fancy themselves clued-in weather sophisticates, though.

[Derecho]

This particular hurricane's approach angle made it very difficult to pin down a "landfall point."

I'm hoping to make some graphics and get them hosted somewhere, but from the night before landfall, the difference in angle from Charley (at the time south of Cuba and STILL moving west of due N, hadn't turned east of N yet) to the NHC forecast landfall at that time, and the actual landfall, was an angle of what looks like less than 5 degrees of arc.

And what's up with Port Charlotte being treated like it's 5,000 miles away from Tampa? Cripes, it's barely down the coast.

[Derecho]

Perhaps you missed this on TV, but I could have sworn I saw police officers in their vehicles going through mobile home parks down there telling them there was a mandetory evacuation and they needed to get out. I also saw where police officers were going door to door. Hmmmmmm

In Porta Gunta? So it was mandatory then?

http://www.charlottecountyfl.com/Emerge ... letins.asp


Date: Thursday, August 12, 2004 Time: 4:19:31 PM
Mandatory Evacuation of Barrier Islands
CHARLOTTE COUNTY SCHOOLS TO CLOSE FRIDAY. MANDATORY EVACUATION OF BARRIER ISLANDS, RV PARKS, AND MOBILE HOME COMMUNITIES IN CHARLOTTE COUNTY ORDERED AT 3 P.M. TODAY.



So they had 24 hours to evacuate after the order.

It was interesting this morning flipping around the channels; they seemed astonished when they found out about the evac order, and a bit chagrined since it would mess up their "surprise, area not warned" story they were chomping at the bit with knives out to tell.

[Rainband]

Perhaps you missed this on TV, but I could have sworn I saw police officers in their vehicles going through mobile home parks down there telling them there was a mandetory evacuation and they needed to get out. I also saw where police officers were going door to door. Hmmmmmm

In Porta Gunta? So it was mandatory then?

ANYTIME an evacuation is issued Voluntary or not IT includes Mobile Home residents. It amazes me the gaul of people blaming The NHC and the EOC's they did a great job. Comman Sense goes a LONG way iof you choose to use it. Hmmm a cat 2 hurricane anywhere near you and you live in a mobile home????? If you stay the blame falls on you and no one else