TD5 Track Not Looking Good

[MWatkins]

Real quickly...there is a small chance that TD5 is coming apart a bit this morning but probably not.

A quick run through the model guidance this morning...

The GFS at 6Z was more or less a rerun of the 00Z guidance...except a little slower. The GFS tracks a weak vortex WNW for the next 5 days and suggests a classic track through the northeast Caribbean...over Puerto Rico...over or near the Dominican Republic...and into the southeast Bahamas and near South Florida by the end of the period. The key there is that it does track a weak vortex.

THe UKMET is in the middle...brining the system just south of the northern islands...and impacting the south coast of Hispanola before heading due west. The UKMET is stronger with it' solution in terms of intensity.

The NOGAPS is the furthest south soultion (what a shock) with a track more or less on the TPC official forecast track. This model is the strongest solution.

So...some considerable spread in the models with strength and intensity. The NHC track guidance suite is tightly lustered along the NHC track as well...except ofr LBAR which drops the storm after 72 hours.

I'll probably write up a complete forecast around 3PM EDT...

MW

[Stratosphere747]

Looks like it is getting into the "envelope" that sends it into the central GOM.....

[seaswing]

no, please, not now!

[PurdueWx80]

If TD 5 gets into the Gulf, barring any shear or a brush with the Yucatan, there is no reason I can think of that it won't be our next major hurricane. Waters in the central and especially western Gulf are running several degrees above normal - thus, they could easily support a Cat 4 or 5. Of course, there are about a million other things that can stop it from getting there. Just wanted to add my 2 cents.

[PTrackerLA]

Yep I'm afraid we'll be doing this all over again about a week from now.

[PurdueWx80]

Update - the front has pushed warm surface waters much further south, and upwelling is occurring along the coast line. Still, by next week southerly flow will have returned and there should be plenty of warm water in the NW gulf again.

[bkhusky2]

All this thing has to do is get by the East Caribbean, and I'm not sure anything will stand in it's way from becoming a major hurricane. Everybody in the Caribbean and GOM should keep an eye on this during this next week.

[ChaserUK]

Certainly another to keep an eye on. Needless to say we might be making plans early next week!

[MWatkins]

Unfortunately...the UKMET track at 12Z is trending along the GFS guidance from earlier...althought the 12Z GFS...yet again...does not follow the vortex. Looking at the steering flow it creates....it is pretty close to the UKMET solution.

The UKMET in the previous run ket the system south of Cuba...making a run to the Yucatan in 144 hours...this time it brings it up over the DR and into Cuba...near the keys...then out into the Gulf...but AWAY from sw Florida.

Once again the GFDL drops it.

MW

[Aquawind]

Well at least I have a few days to regroup...I am Burnt..Haven't even seen a loop on the 2 new systems yet..I will get to it today sometime..at least I can load a loop today..Yesterday was unbelievable..I could not get data and then I saw the turn towards us and the power was gone..gotta call an hour later and buddy told me it jogged north to my obvious relief..My 2 hours of battery life was like 12 clicks..lol Waited till after the flooding possibilities ended before hooking up the generator..I will be watching the data much more thoroughly in a day or 2..until then..Thanks for the quick update MW..

[rbaker]

depends if that trough/front is still there in the ne gom stretching down to the s central gom, like it has past few days. We are talking thurs or fri at it's current pace.

[jlauderdal]

Unfortunately...the UKMET track at 12Z is trending along the GFS guidance from earlier...althought the 12Z GFS...yet again...does not follow the vortex. Looking at the steering flow it creates....it is pretty close to the UKMET solution.

The UKMET in the previous run ket the system south of Cuba...making a run to the Yucatan in 144 hours...this time it brings it up over the DR and into Cuba...near the keys...then out into the Gulf...but AWAY from sw Florida.

Once again the GFDL drops it.

MW

Folks,
MW reads the models correctly so no problem there. No sense in wading through piles of posts or links..you have the info from him. Remember, this is way out in time and the error is huge..look at the error on all the models 24h before charley. Now take that error a week from now and you can see the possibilities. They trended west at the end of Chalrey and NHC kept to their guns and stayed east and hit the cone. We know the general direction this far out but no sense in assuming its here we go again...many hurdles on that track, PR, DR, HISP, etc. What his board could use is some specialists like NHC. Model Guru, Sat Guru, Storm Surge Guru, Nexrad Guru, Discussion Guru(e.g Stacy Stewart) etc. This sure would save board space and time. Just a thought for the administrators. There is enough brainpower here to cover most of the bases. Im off to Port Charlotte later today to help out a buddy that had his house trashed. I suggeseted he ride it our here in fort laud but to no avail. he has some great footage though.