Some Blame To Max Mayfield

[CalmBeforeStorm]

First, the NHC does an excellent job forecasting very unpredictable systems. That said, I believe Max Mayfield needs to shoulder at least some of the blame for many people being not totally prepared for what they recieved in Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte and here's why.

Case in point. When the storm was below Cuba and taking a jog towards the north and Key West, Mayfield was on TV stating that this was a temporary jog and that the NHC still had HIGH CONFIDENCE in their forecast track which would take the core of the storm west of Key West. He was right in this case. Problem is, people hang on his every word and Mayfield has a very bad habit of overstating confidence in their forecasts of what obviously can be very unpredictable systems. He tends to use phrases such as EXTREME CONFIDENCE, THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT and OUR FORECASt TRACK TAKES THE STORM... People hang on these phrases and, right or wrong, use them as a gauge to measure the probability of extreme danger and they make preperations or evacuate accordingly. His confidence in a Tampa Bay hit for Charley was much too high in my opinion and this confidence showed on his TV appearences.

As director of the NHC and the primary face of the agency during a crisis, his words hold more weight then anyone else and I believe he exudes too much confidence in his forecasts and doesn't focus enough on the implications of a less then perfect forecast. It seems to me that many of his predecessors such as Bob Sheets and Neil Frank were much more "old school" in that they recognized the uncertanties in a forecast and recognized the fallability of the forecast models.

What's done is done but hopefully this storm "humbled" Mayfield somewhat and he will take a more cautious tone. Irene should have warned him, Charley should change him.

[Lindaloo]

I just do not understand your reasoning and how you could blame Max for this. Are you a Pro Met? Could you have done any better? If so, let's hear it.

I heard him say "this is a very dangerous hurricane"

[jlauderdal]

First, the NHC does an excellent job forecasting very unpredictable systems. That said, I believe Max Mayfield needs to shoulder at least some of the blame for many people being not totally prepared for what they recieved in Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte and here's why.

Case in point. When the storm was below Cuba and taking a jog towards the north and Key West, Mayfield was on TV stating that this was a temporary jog and that the NHC still had HIGH CONFIDENCE in their forecast track which would take the core of the storm west of Key West. He was right in this case. Problem is, people hang on his every word and Mayfield has a very bad habit of overstating confidence in their forecasts of what obviously can be very unpredictable systems. He tends to use phrases such as EXTREME CONFIDENCE, THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT and OUR FORECASt TRACK TAKES THE STORM... People hang on these phrases and, right or wrong, use them as a gauge to measure the probability of extreme danger and they make preperations or evacuate accordingly. His confidence in a Tampa Bay hit for Charley was much too high in my opinion and this confidence showed on his TV appearences.

As director of the NHC and the primary face of the agency during a crisis, his words hold more weight then anyone else and I believe he exudes too much confidence in his forecasts and doesn't focus enough on the implications of a less then perfect forecast. It seems to me that many of his predecessors such as Bob Sheets and Neil Frank were much more "old school" in that they recognized the uncertanties in a forecast and recognized the fallability of the forecast models.

What's done is done but hopefully this storm "humbled" Mayfield somewhat and he will take a more cautious tone. Irene should have warned him, Charley should change him.

NONSENSE!!

[CalmBeforeStorm]

It's not a matter of being able to better. It's a matter of emphasizing the uncertanties of a forecast when doing TV interviews. When he demonstrates too much confidence in a forecast this confidence is passed on to viewers and they take action accordingly.

[Lindaloo]

It's not a matter of being able to better. It's a matter of emphasizing the uncertanties of a forecast when doing TV interviews. When he demonstrates too much confidence in a forecast this confidence is passed on to viewers and they take action accordingly.

As we all know, Mother Nature is unpredictable!! I do not think he demonstrates too much confidence at all. He is well known for getting the word out and it is up to your local stations and affiliates to get people to safety.

Hurricane means hurricane! Alot of people thought this was going to be a CAT 2! Well, a CAT 2 is just as dangerous and there is no excuse for not getting ready for the worst.

[vbhoutex]

What you fail to say about Max Mayfield is the fact that he ALWAYS states that the path of the storm coud shift either way and that anyone in the cone of the path that they always show should be ready for whatever conditons are being expected in the coned area. EVERYONE IS RESPONSIBLE TO ACT IN A PRUDENT MANNER WHEN THEY ARE IN A WARNED OR WATCHED AREA. THAT MEANS GET PREPARED FOR THE WORST AND HOPE FOR THE BEST!!!!

MAX MAYFIELD BEARS NO BLAME HERE!! The ones who bear the blame are the ones who did not act prudently when their area was placed under watches or warnings. As has been stated many times before on this site and I HAVE HEARD MAX MAYFIELD STATE IT IN HIS TALKS- a hurricane is not a pinpoint!! It covers many hundreds of miles sometimes with destructive winds and rains expected across the entire breadth of the storm in the warned areas.

STOP TRYING TO PLACE BLAME WHERE THERE IS NO BLAME TO BE PLACED!!! THE NHC DID A SUPERB JOB WITH CHARLEY!!

[simplykristi]

Do people not pay attention to the cone??? That area was in the cone. No one could have predicted the rapid development or the sudden turn!!!!

Kristi

[Lindaloo]

Well said vbhoutex!! WELL SAID!!!

[CalmBeforeStorm]

As we all know, Mother Nature is unpredictable!! I do not think he demonstrates too much confidence at all. He is well known for getting the word out and it is up to your local stations and affiliates to get people to safety.

Hurricane means hurricane! Alot of people thought this was going to be a CAT 2! Well, a CAT 2 is just as dangerous and there is no excuse for not getting ready for the worst.[/quote]

All of us weather weenies know that Mother Nature is unpredictable but not all of the general population know the ramifications of a change in course and intensity. They hear Cat2 going to Tampa and they prepare accordingly. They need to be told by the NHC, not Billy the local weatherman who always overreacts, that they could very well be hit by a Cat 4.

[Lindaloo]

Well they should. A hurricane is a hurricane!! Prepare for the worst and hope for the best!! Quit trying to lay blame on the NHC.

And you are so wrong about listening to your local weathermen. THEY are your resource for info and you should heed all watches and warnings for your area. Your local mets know YOUR area better than anyone else.

You are just out to cause trouble I think.

[Dean4Storms]

I can't lay blame to any one person, just not fair. This is more of a case of an assumption by officials that people are educated and as cautious as they are when they see a particular area forecasted to be directly hit what possible errors there are in that forecast and the ramifications.


To a great deal of extent you have to make people responsible for their OWN actions, the Government can't do everything for you!