Time to stop a forecasted track line?????
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Exactly Derek. And I don't think the track lines should be *witheld*, but just STRONGLY SHIFT the EMPAHSIS to the cone, perhaps eliminating the line from the official maps, releasing the long / lat track numbers with a STRONG caveat that it is only a working base and is not a forecasted track for the public. Follow that up with strong media liason to quickly chide major media outlets such as the national networks if they start using the working base lines as "[P]rojected to make landfall in Tampa tommorrow evening".
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Dean4Storms
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Derek Ortt wrote:I CAN go along wiht the line but presenting only a cone to the public
I'm sorry if I mislead you, but that is what I was getting at. Most people don't know a cold front from a warm front on a weather map, but they do tend to think that a line drawn from a TC away from them means they are in the clear.
I know most of us know better because we are more educated and informed of just what the potential is with a TC but the general public can be very ignorant.
I have a sis-in-law who is a pharmacist, she can tell you many a story of how ignorant some people are. One for example, she had a customer approach her who told her he had hemorrhoids real bad but that the hemorrhoid medication wasn't helping a bit, even making it worse. After she questioned him, she learned he wasn't even removing it out of the Aluminum Foil packaging before he shoved it up his butt!
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I was thinking the same thing today Derek. I believe we should do away with the forecast line and stick with a cone.
We spend millions of dollars trying to make an exact science out of tracking these hurricanes, when it will never will be exact...NEVER.
We cannot beat mother nature no matter how much money and technology we throw at it.
A warning area is all we can do, then all areas in that cone will have no choice but to prepare because the message is "The hurricane is going in this area to the best of our knowledge, but we don't know where it will hit land." Period. If the NHC doesn't have that line then the media can't focus on that one place.
We that follow hurricanes and are knowledgable about them are a tiny majority of the population. The majority of the public gets a message like this "There is a hurricane going to Tampa" Even if they are in the warning area they turn on the news and it's Tampa's doing this...Tampa's doing that...and they believe that's where it's going.
We spend millions of dollars trying to make an exact science out of tracking these hurricanes, when it will never will be exact...NEVER.
We cannot beat mother nature no matter how much money and technology we throw at it.
A warning area is all we can do, then all areas in that cone will have no choice but to prepare because the message is "The hurricane is going in this area to the best of our knowledge, but we don't know where it will hit land." Period. If the NHC doesn't have that line then the media can't focus on that one place.
We that follow hurricanes and are knowledgable about them are a tiny majority of the population. The majority of the public gets a message like this "There is a hurricane going to Tampa" Even if they are in the warning area they turn on the news and it's Tampa's doing this...Tampa's doing that...and they believe that's where it's going.
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Derek Ortt
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Agua wrote:Aquawind wrote:Derek Ortt wrote:Absolutely not.
Those forecast lines also have a scientific purpose and they show how the forecasts can be better. Just because some are too dumb to realize that a hurricane is not a point, is not a reason to jeopardize the long term scientific good
Bingo..Some people are stupid and ignorrant probably always will be..No excuses.. plans for survival and evacuation should have been made months ago..has nothing to do with a dot or line on paper..People need to listen to local authorities..
Well, hell then, why don't they just throw out a list of about 70 sets of long / lat # for their cones? If people can't figure it out, they're just stupid and ignorant. :rolleyes:
You're losing sight of the purpose of tropical prediction. If we KNOW that people are ignorant as to the sophistication of tropical forecasting, shouldn't that be taken into account as to what is presented to them with regard to likely landfall?
No one is saying for them to eliminate their own predicted tracks, but when it's thrown out there as "official track", it's seized upon because it's easily digested. I'm simply suggesting that perhaps the public emphasis should be put on something more amorphous as a "landfall projection" or something.
No matter what line or lines or cones you show people they will still make stupid and ignorant decisions is my point..they simply need to listen..The warning area covered almost the entire west coast of Florida not much more you can do..I agree the Landfall line itself is very decieving to the general public..not the first time pretty graphics caused confusion..Media will always want graphics..Many People don't listen and read anymore..they want the books with the pictures and little content..The graphics are basicaly irrelevent..Just know your location/county and listen....
You're losing sight of the purpose of tropical prediction.
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Dean4Storms
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News Story on Drudge makes my point............
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Hurricane Charley Devastates Western Florida
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Aug 14, 6:20 AM (ET)
By Marc Serota
PORT CHARLOTTE, Fla. (Reuters) - Hurricane Charley leveled houses and snapped trees in half as it raged into the western Florida coast, leaving 1 million people without power and an expected billion-dollar price tag before moving into the Atlantic Saturday.
A hurricane warning extended from Georgia to the North Carolina-Virginia state line as Charley churned through the ocean, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said. It was expected to reach the South Carolina coast later in the day.
Packing winds of 145 mph (233 kph), Charlie was a powerful Category 4 storm when came ashore Friday at Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte, catching many residents unprepared because of expectations the brunt of the hurricane would hit the coast much farther north.
"I never seen anything like this before," said Victor Rivera as he stood on top of a pile of rubble that used to be the car parts shop where he worked in Port Charlotte.
The storm plowed across central Florida, weakening as it dumped heavy rains on Orlando, home to Disney World, and aimed for the Atlantic. Charley was expected to regain some strength over the water before crossing back onto land in the Carolinas and proceeding through to the north as a tropical storm.
In its wake, overturned boats sat in front of shredded storefronts, power lines dangled in standing water, street signs and billboards were ripped away and palm tree trunks, snapped in half like matchsticks, were wrapped with twisted metal.
Few windows had been boarded up, and most were blown out. Mobile home parks were devastated and 18-wheel tractor-trailers flipped over like toys.
On exclusive Captiva Island, offshore from Punta Gorda, 160 condominiums were totally destroyed and a similar number seriously damaged, the National Weather Service said.
The storm ripped the roof off an emergency shelter in DeSoto County, exposing the thousand people who had sought refuge within to pounding rain and ferocious winds, the service said.
ASSESSING THE DAMAGE
Florida Power & Light said 429,000 customers were left without electricity. Progress Energy Florida said 477,000 people were sitting in the dark.
"This storm has caused a tremendous amount of destruction," said a Progress company spokesman.
The state emergency management agency said it was too early to put a figure on the damages, or to estimate casualties.
But a catastrophic risk management group, Risk Management Solutions, estimated Charley could have inflicted up to $15 billion of insured damage.
President Bush declared Florida a disaster area to speed emergency assistance.
Forecasters had expected Charley to hit the densely populated Tampa area north of Port Charlotte and nearly 2 million people were ordered to evacuate.
But the storm suddenly gathered intensity as it headed for land and made a last-minute turn that brought it ashore farther south, catching off guard many who had ignored evacuation orders because they thought they were safe.
By 5 a.m. (0600 GMT), Charley was about 115 milessouthwest of Charleston, South Carolina, near latitude 31.
By 5 a.m. (0600 GMT), Charley was about 115 milessouthwest of Charleston, South Carolina, near latitude 31. 2north and longitude 80.5 west, and its winds had reduced to 85mph (138 kph). It was moving north-northeast at 25 mph (40 kph)and packing winds of up to 85 mph (136 kph). One storm-related death had been confirmed in Florida byFrida y night. A tractor trailer truck, possibly pushed by agust of wind, crossed a highway median and fell on top of a carn ear Orlando, killing a child passenger in the car. Charley was blamed for four deaths in Cuba and one inJamaica aft er it formed in the Caribbean Tuesday. As a Category 4 storm -- the second strongest on a scaleused to rate hurr icanes -- Charley rated as one of the mostdangerous storms to hit Florida. Hurricane Andrew was believed to be a Ca tegory 4 storm whenit hit Miami in August 1992, causing $25 billion in damage. Itwas subsequently upgraded to a Catego ry 5. Hurricane Hugo,which caused $7 billion in damage when it hit South Carolina in1989, was also a Category 4.
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Hurricane Charley Devastates Western Florida
Email this story
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Aug 14, 6:20 AM (ET)
By Marc Serota
PORT CHARLOTTE, Fla. (Reuters) - Hurricane Charley leveled houses and snapped trees in half as it raged into the western Florida coast, leaving 1 million people without power and an expected billion-dollar price tag before moving into the Atlantic Saturday.
A hurricane warning extended from Georgia to the North Carolina-Virginia state line as Charley churned through the ocean, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said. It was expected to reach the South Carolina coast later in the day.
Packing winds of 145 mph (233 kph), Charlie was a powerful Category 4 storm when came ashore Friday at Punta Gorda and Port Charlotte, catching many residents unprepared because of expectations the brunt of the hurricane would hit the coast much farther north.
"I never seen anything like this before," said Victor Rivera as he stood on top of a pile of rubble that used to be the car parts shop where he worked in Port Charlotte.
The storm plowed across central Florida, weakening as it dumped heavy rains on Orlando, home to Disney World, and aimed for the Atlantic. Charley was expected to regain some strength over the water before crossing back onto land in the Carolinas and proceeding through to the north as a tropical storm.
In its wake, overturned boats sat in front of shredded storefronts, power lines dangled in standing water, street signs and billboards were ripped away and palm tree trunks, snapped in half like matchsticks, were wrapped with twisted metal.
Few windows had been boarded up, and most were blown out. Mobile home parks were devastated and 18-wheel tractor-trailers flipped over like toys.
On exclusive Captiva Island, offshore from Punta Gorda, 160 condominiums were totally destroyed and a similar number seriously damaged, the National Weather Service said.
The storm ripped the roof off an emergency shelter in DeSoto County, exposing the thousand people who had sought refuge within to pounding rain and ferocious winds, the service said.
ASSESSING THE DAMAGE
Florida Power & Light said 429,000 customers were left without electricity. Progress Energy Florida said 477,000 people were sitting in the dark.
"This storm has caused a tremendous amount of destruction," said a Progress company spokesman.
The state emergency management agency said it was too early to put a figure on the damages, or to estimate casualties.
But a catastrophic risk management group, Risk Management Solutions, estimated Charley could have inflicted up to $15 billion of insured damage.
President Bush declared Florida a disaster area to speed emergency assistance.
Forecasters had expected Charley to hit the densely populated Tampa area north of Port Charlotte and nearly 2 million people were ordered to evacuate.
But the storm suddenly gathered intensity as it headed for land and made a last-minute turn that brought it ashore farther south, catching off guard many who had ignored evacuation orders because they thought they were safe.
By 5 a.m. (0600 GMT), Charley was about 115 milessouthwest of Charleston, South Carolina, near latitude 31.
By 5 a.m. (0600 GMT), Charley was about 115 milessouthwest of Charleston, South Carolina, near latitude 31. 2north and longitude 80.5 west, and its winds had reduced to 85mph (138 kph). It was moving north-northeast at 25 mph (40 kph)and packing winds of up to 85 mph (136 kph). One storm-related death had been confirmed in Florida byFrida y night. A tractor trailer truck, possibly pushed by agust of wind, crossed a highway median and fell on top of a carn ear Orlando, killing a child passenger in the car. Charley was blamed for four deaths in Cuba and one inJamaica aft er it formed in the Caribbean Tuesday. As a Category 4 storm -- the second strongest on a scaleused to rate hurr icanes -- Charley rated as one of the mostdangerous storms to hit Florida. Hurricane Andrew was believed to be a Ca tegory 4 storm whenit hit Miami in August 1992, causing $25 billion in damage. Itwas subsequently upgraded to a Catego ry 5. Hurricane Hugo,which caused $7 billion in damage when it hit South Carolina in1989, was also a Category 4.
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My opinion and statements DO NOT represent the opinion of the EMA, NHC, NWS, or any other professional agency, organization, or group. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.