Charley - A Perfect Reason Why.....

[wxman57]

Remember the thread about "what intensity hurricane would YOU ride out?" Many of you said a Cat 1 or a Cat 2, but not higher. So, based on that premise, those who would ride out a Cat 1 or 2 would have made the decision on Thursday to ride Charley out in Charlotte Harbor.

I tried to make the point that you can't make your evacuation decision based on the current intensity of a hurricane, or even on the forecast intensity. Hurricanes can strengthen 2 categories in just a few hours, as Charley did. If you live along the coast and your home cannot withstand 100+ mph wind or you're in an area that could be inundated by a Cat 3 or 4 storm surge, then you need to leave - perhaps even for a strong tropical storm. Because a strong tropical storm a day or two out could easily become a Cat 3-4 hurricane by the time it makes landfall, leaving no time for you to evacuate.

[jlauderdal]

Remember the thread about "what intensity hurricane would YOU ride out?" Many of you said a Cat 1 or a Cat 2, but not higher. So, based on that premise, those who would ride out a Cat 1 or 2 would have made the decision on Thursday to ride Charley out in Charlotte Harbor.

I tried to make the point that you can't make your evacuation decision based on the current intensity of a hurricane, or even on the forecast intensity. Hurricanes can strengthen 2 categories in just a few hours, as Charley did. If you live along the coast and your home cannot withstand 100+ mph wind or you're in an area that could be inundated by a Cat 3 or 4 storm surge, then you need to leave - perhaps even for a strong tropical storm. Because a strong tropical storm a day or two out could easily become a Cat 3-4 hurricane by the time it makes landfall, leaving no time for you to evacuate.

People shouldnt forget about the track. NHC had the affected area in the cone and they always say tht there can be errors in the track and thus the cone. I saw Max get tough last night on TV with the cone when asked about the Tampa situation. Good for him. Floridians should know better. You have to feel really bad for the people that rely on others to watch out for them like the nursing homes. Now the people runnign those places need to be held accountable. NHC is not on the hook for this one.

[Derek Ortt]

NHC should not be accountable at all for the track. However, some accountability is needed for NOT calling this a cat 3 at 11 a.m. when data from 10 a.m. suggested that the winds had in fact increased from 110 to 120-125 m.p.h. Maybe that 2 hours would have saved a few lives. Sad thing is we will never get the chance to know

[soonertwister]

People are dead from this storm. Gone from this earth forever. Those who wish to scapegoat will always find a reason to blame someone else for their tragedy. Those in charge of others, such as hospitals and nursing homes, must use a higher standard of caution for those in their care. For all others who have been victimized by this storm, invariably they have in one way or another chosen their own fates, except for children and others powerless to control their own destinies, who may have been sacrificed by their own parents' or guardians' lack of common sense.

They chose to buy or rent homes in unprotected areas like barrier islands and low-lying areas near a hurricane-vulnerable coast. They chose not to protect their property from harm until it was too late to do so, or simply ignored the threat altogether. We should never underestimate the ability of people to deny that they are in harm's way. It's been shown over and over that people commit suicide by not heeding the warning signs that have been provided to them. You warn, then you get out of the way. As cruel as it sounds, if you have become a victim of Charley, it was very likely you that made that happen.

It's terribly sad but true. The majority of people who drown in flash floods drive into deep water by their own conscious choice. They've only been told a million times not to do that before they actually go and die.

[jlauderdal]

NHC should not be accountable at all for the track. However, some accountability is needed for NOT calling this a cat 3 at 11 a.m. when data from 10 a.m. suggested that the winds had in fact increased from 110 to 120-125 m.p.h. Maybe that 2 hours would have saved a few lives. Sad thing is we will never get the chance to know

You are right about maybe it would have saved a few lives. However, I know evac zones are based on intensity but wether its a 2 or three people need to prepare accordingly and understand that it can intensify rapidly. The problem in this case wasn;t the intensity it was the fact that people assumed it was going to Tampa and prepared that way which is a huge mistake.

[cycloneye]

NHC should not be accountable at all for the track. However, some accountability is needed for NOT calling this a cat 3 at 11 a.m. when data from 10 a.m. suggested that the winds had in fact increased from 110 to 120-125 m.p.h. Maybe that 2 hours would have saved a few lives. Sad thing is we will never get the chance to know

Derek when they do later the anaylisis and do the final report on Charley maybe they will make the upgrade at 11 AM in that final report.

[Three Blind Mice]

Hey, I think we should all realize those guys are probably sick about the turn of events. Hindsight is always perfect. Imagine you had a job where literally millions of people were depending on you and you were dealing with something as fickle as Hurricanes. But today alot of S. Florida families are dealing with cold realities of death. God bless those hit by Charley.

Don't just watch this tragedy from afar. HELP!! Lots of worthwhile agencies that will need our support.

[coriolis]

People are dead from this storm. Gone from this earth forever. Those who wish to scapegoat will always find a reason to blame someone else for their tragedy. Those in charge of others, such as hospitals and nursing homes, must use a higher standard of caution for those in their care. For all others who have been victimized by this storm, invariably they have in one way or another chosen their own fates, except for children and others powerless to control their own destinies, who may have been sacrificed by their own parents' or guardians' lack of common sense.

They chose to buy or rent homes in unprotected areas like barrier islands and low-lying areas near a hurricane-vulnerable coast. They chose not to protect their property from harm until it was too late to do so, or simply ignored the threat altogether. We should never underestimate the ability of people to deny that they are in harm's way. It's been shown over and over that people commit suicide by not heeding the warning signs that have been provided to them. You warn, then you get out of the way. As cruel as it sounds, if you have become a victim of Charley, it was very likely you that made that happen.

It's terribly sad but true. The majority of people who drown in flash floods drive into deep water by their own conscious choice. They've only been told a million times not to do that before they actually go and die.

Nah, for most of 'em it's denial, not a death wish. This is an interesting topic, though. Do you want to take it outside, er, to the off topic?

[GalvestonDuck]

They chose to buy or rent homes in unprotected areas like barrier islands and low-lying areas near a hurricane-vulnerable coast.

This coming from someone living in tornado alley (or so I'd assume with a name like soonertwister [Oklahoma])?

"...unprotected areas like barrier islands..." Might not be invincible and I sure as heck would evacuate to save my life, but we have one hell of seawall that has offered protection to homes and landmarks since 1900.

I'll tell you what I tell vbhoutex -- Living here is no more dangerous than living in tornado alley, in flood plains, in the mountains where mudslides or avalanches occur, on fault lines where earthquakes shake the earth, in forests where fires burn, or up north with blizzards paralyze lives throughout the winter. If we could all find ONE nice cozy safe place on earth where we could live without EVER being at risk for a natural disaster, we'd end up being so darned overcrowded, underfed, diseased, and crime-ridden, it wouldn't be worth it. Or we'd all be packed into one nice, tight little perfect terrorist target, just right for dropping any sort of NBC weapon into.

BTW - the Red Cross' most responded-to disaster: simple one-home fires. The Galveston County Red Cross responds to at least 70 fires a month in our area, providing assistance and support to victims. It doesn't take a large-scale natural disaster to take a home or a life. And there's nowhere that's 100% safe to live.

Yes, I'll agree...they should have acted to protect their homes, or at most, their lives. But they can't be blamed for where they lived.

~Barrier-island-living Duck and proud of it

[Dean4Storms]

You must keep in mind, some people won't leave no matter what it looks like or what the officials are telling them. I'll leave whenever I see a "possibility" of a Cat 3 or stronger living here close to the beach and bay.

[goodlife]

If I didn't hear this 100 times yesterday I didn't hear it once..
I listened to wtsp.com for a while and then switched to nbc-2.com
Over and over on both stations they repeated and repeated....GET OUT NOW....if you live in a mobile home...even if you're not in the storm's direct path..you NEED to get out.
I would never stay in a trailer during a storm...that's just absurd.
NHC nor any meteorologist anywhere is to blame for this utter destruction and loss of life. Mother Nature is going to do exactly as Mother Nature pleases...and she doesn't intend for us to be able to pinpoint her every move.
All in all....I think the NHC did a great job. The hurricane passed right in that cone where they said it would.
How many warnings do you have to give people before they listen?? I bet they will next time...those who are still alive to do so!

[zoeyann]

wxman57- that is an excellent point. Sorry to say that I have always been one of those people who made my decision based on intensity, and directional forecasts. Lili(2002) gave the people over here a scarebut we got lucky. and now this. It has certainly made me change my thinking. I am just sorry for the people in Florida who felt they could ride out a 2 and got a 4 instead. The only good thing that can come out of this tragdy is that other people can learn for their mistakes so that more lives won't have to be lost the next time one of these systems affect someone

[seaswing]

NHC should not be accountable at all for the track. However, some accountability is needed for NOT calling this a cat 3 at 11 a.m. when data from 10 a.m. suggested that the winds had in fact increased from 110 to 120-125 m.p.h. Maybe that 2 hours would have saved a few lives. Sad thing is we will never get the chance to know

Derek when they do later the anaylisis and do the final report on Charley maybe they will make the upgrade at 11 AM in that final report.

Just like Andrew in '92--wasn't it a cat 5 when they did their research? to little, to late.

[HurricaneBill]

People are dead from this storm. Gone from this earth forever. Those who wish to scapegoat will always find a reason to blame someone else for their tragedy. Those in charge of others, such as hospitals and nursing homes, must use a higher standard of caution for those in their care. For all others who have been victimized by this storm, invariably they have in one way or another chosen their own fates, except for children and others powerless to control their own destinies, who may have been sacrificed by their own parents' or guardians' lack of common sense.

They chose to buy or rent homes in unprotected areas like barrier islands and low-lying areas near a hurricane-vulnerable coast. They chose not to protect their property from harm until it was too late to do so, or simply ignored the threat altogether. We should never underestimate the ability of people to deny that they are in harm's way. It's been shown over and over that people commit suicide by not heeding the warning signs that have been provided to them. You warn, then you get out of the way. As cruel as it sounds, if you have become a victim of Charley, it was very likely you that made that happen.

It's terribly sad but true. The majority of people who drown in flash floods drive into deep water by their own conscious choice. They've only been told a million times not to do that before they actually go and die.

Yet, there will be lawyers out there who will go to the victims and encourage them to file lawsuits. As if this were all preventable.

You can't prevent nature. You can only prepare.

[HurricaneBill]

You must keep in mind, some people won't leave no matter what it looks like or what the officials are telling them. I'll leave whenever I see a "possibility" of a Cat 3 or stronger living here close to the beach and bay.

Same here. I live well inland. However, when asked if I'd ever want to be in a hurricane, I said "Yes, but only in a Category 1".

By Category 1, I mean the whole system. If I was on the coast and it looked like the storm had potential to get higher, I'd evacuate.

[Steve Cosby]

If I was on the coast and it looked like the storm had potential to get higher, I'd evacuate.

That's something people are not getting: it CAN ALWAYS go higher for reasons other than sea temperature and lack of shear or anything else.

Bastardi has harped on this several times in the past: the frictional effects on a hurricane as it nears landfall can, and do, have a magnifying effect on the winds. He's talking about this in the morning update about Charley going into NC.

My personal belief is that I would only stay if it was at minimal storm status or something like that.

Of course, I go to the bath tub at least when a Severe Thunderstorm approaches.

[opera ghost]

The thing about a place like this and the decision to ride out a storm is that most of us are pretty well informed. We all suspected/knew that Charley might intensify further.

While I'd say- I would ride out a Cat 2 storm... I don't think anyone HERE was thinking of Charley as a Cat 2 storm. I would ride out a storm with a maximum expected intensity of 2. I said well before landfall that it wouldn't surprise me if Charley made Cat5.

Now people who aren't that well informed need to be given this advice- but you're preachin' to the choir here.