Charley Advisories

[Anonymous]

Now about halfway across and Charley is still looking healthy. Eye is still visible.
And moving pretty quickly as well.

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wx/radar/index.html

[AL Chili Pepper]

943 mb and a small (8 mi) eye = I'd guess the strongest 1 minute sustained wind at landfall will be 127-135 tops (as found by NHC). Few gusts probably hit 145 but not many. Just an educated guess though. Hell of a storm

When Frederic made landfall in '79, he had a pressure of around 945, with sustained winds of 130 and gusts to 145. You're probably real close.

[lilbump3000]

I think he might get back in the atlantic water has a strong cat. 1 or weak cat.2 because he is moving way faster than i thought he was goin to be moving across the state.

[Stephanie]

I think that the area is only 8 ft. above sea level if I'm not mistaken. I really feel for all of those people that live in that area.

[soonertwister]

I know someone with a home on Longboat Key NW of Sarasota, and for a while today I thought that island might be inundated. Who knows, maybe it was. I don't think it's more than above 5-8 feet ASL on the whole key.

[spaceisland]

And the nice warm Gulfstream awaits just offshore Daytona... which is where I think Charley will emerge from land and get back into the water! And when it does, strength will return. I think Cat 2 sometime tomorrow.

[Stephanie]

There's only one causeway that leads from Sanibel to Ft. Myers. I wonder how that has held up.

I can't believe that there were people that acutally stayed there.

[soonertwister]

On radar it appears that Charley is going to make a dead-on hit on Orlando. Have to think that there will be a lot of damage there.

[Guest]

just curious as to different mets and peoples thoughts...

and will there even be a 2nd landfall?

[Guest]

^bump

[KBBOCA]

I agree with all of the above. Yes, he looks remarkably healthy, and yes, Orlando looks to be dead ahead... I'm concerned for friends there.

[soonertwister]

I was just watching TWC when a report came on from Daytona Beach, and the reporter there said that they are expecting up to "minimal category 1 hurricane winds".

What planet are these people on? From what I could see, no one was protecting their windows. Charley is going to make a direct hit on both Orlando and Daytona Beach, and those on the right side of the storm could see near category 3 winds or gusts.

I'm just amazed at the amount of ignorance that people can show at times. There's still a lot of denial in Florida. Charley hit the coast hard, now we get some strong winds, it goes away. We could see more fatalities from Charley from now until he goes away than what we've seen thus far from what I can see. If Charley comes into Daytona with 80KT winds, if anybody there is on the right side of the storm, they could experience sustained winds of 110+ mph. Just your average picnic...

[PTrackerLA]

Just heard on TWC. Also weatherbug is showing 87mph gust at Discovery Island in Kissimmee and now it's not reporting anymore.

[HurricaneBill]

AP is reporting that one person was killed by flying debris while out driving during Hurricane Charley.

Earlier I posted about the wreck in which 2 were killed. I am not sure if those were directly related to Charley or if they will be counted as so.

I heard the death toll was 5. 1 dead in FL, 3 in Cuba, and 1 in Jamaica.

[SouthernWx]

Now 105 mph at Orlando Int'l airport....
http://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.wwus52.KMLB.html

Anemometer at Kissimmee blew away...was disabled...

[SouthernWx]

Now 105 mph at Orlando Int'l airport....
http://kamala.cod.edu/fl/latest.wwus52.KMLB.html

Anemometer at Kissimmee blew away...was disabled...

[Cyclone Runner]

Also 129 houses/buildings totally destroyed and 787 partially destroyed. Here are the most recent details from Prensalatina about the casualities and destruction.


http://www.prensalatina.com.mx/NewsSect ... anguage=ES

Ascienden a cuatro los muertos por paso de huracán Charley por Cuba

La Habana, 13 ago (PL) A cuatro ascendieron las víctimas fatales registradas en Cuba a consecuencia del paso del huracán Charley por la isla, informó hoy el Estado Mayor Nacional de la Defensa Civil.

En un reporte preliminar, la entidad indicó que los fallecidos pertenecían a los municipios Alquízar, Mariel, San Antonio de los Baños y Güira de Melena, en la provincia de La Habana, y las causas reportadas son derrumbes, impacto de una palma y ahogado.

Se cuantificaron además mil 129 derrumbes totales, mil 787 parciales y más de 13 mil viviendas con afectaciones diversas, indicó el Teniente Coronel Domingo Carretero, especialista del Estado Mayor Nacional de la Defensa Civil.

Asimismo se registraron daños en 502 centros escolares y 22 instituciones de salud, según explicó.

De acuerdo con Carretero, la empresa eléctrica sufrió deterioros en las torres de alto voltaje, en las cuales se trabaja, y se incorporaron a las labores de recuperación brigadas de otros territorios de la isla para el pronto restablecimiento de ese servicio.

Durante el paso del fenómeno atmosférico, fueron evacuadas 215 mil 532 personas, de las cuales el 16 por ciento acudió a albergues, y se trasladaron a lugares seguros 158 mil 680 animales, principalmente vacunos y aves.

Esta madrugada, el huracán Charley, con categoría II en la escala Saffir Simpson, atravesó territorios del occidente cubano, a los cuales castigó con fuertes precipitaciones y vientos máximos sostenidos de 165 kilómetros.


Reportan tres fallecidos en provincia de Cuba tras el paso de Charley

La Habana, 13 ago (PL) Datos preliminares de los daños ocasionados por el huracán Charley a su paso por el occidente de Cuba indican que fallecieron tres personas de la provincia de La Habana, informó el Estado Mayor de la Defensa Civil.

Explicó además que se reportaron cuatro lesionados, uno de ellos se encuentra en estado grave, en tanto se investigan las causas que ocasionaron las pérdidas de vidas.

Entre los daños de la capital, apuntó que existen hasta el momento 65 derrumbes totales y 576 afectaciones parciales, así como 75 escuelas en iguales condiciones y 48 objetivos industriales.

Las redes telefónicas también fueron afectadas, y la planta de la localidad habanera de Guanabacoa sufrió serias averías.

Brigadas de refuerzo continúan llegando para colaborar en la fase recuperativa, decretada este viernes, en labores como las de la Unión Eléctrica, que señaló perjuicios en las líneas de alto voltaje.

En Pinar del Río, al occidente de la Isla, se informó que se evalúan en cantidades los daños en los municipios de San Crístobal, Candelaria y Bahía Honda.

En la provincia de La Habana, los municipios de Batabanó, Güira de Melena, San Antonio de los Baños y Bauta reportaron afectaciones, como caídas de tanques de agua y del cable de fibra óptica.

Sobre las transportaciones aéreas internacionales destacaron que se restablecerán en la tarde de este viernes, al tiempo que comunicaron que las nacionales lo harán mañana sábado.

Las medidas que se efectúan en este momento están relacionadas con el regreso de más de 215 mil evacuados, así como la limpieza de las vías, labores que se desarrollan desde esta mañana en coordinación de las comunidades y los organismos correspondientes.

Kevin Vang
APCEDI Coordinator

http://www.afap.org/apcedi
http://www.afap.org/
http://www.birdquest.net/[/b]

[PurdueWx80]

There is no reason to believe that Charley won't restrengthen once it reemerges over the Atlantic. Look at what Alex did as it accelerated NE along the coast. I would fully expect a strong Cat 2 at some point tomorrow - but I won't argue yet where it will go, as the feeder bands are probably pulling it towards the water as we speak. The main reason I'd argue for re-strengthening is the fact that it will be over warm water at a typical convective max, and all the feeder bands over water are now lighting up. Also, the center of the vortex has remained remarkably intact. Stay tuned SC and NC. Something to note, as the trough pulls it further north, you might see gusts to hurricane strength all the way up the coast to NJ.

[Guest]

that is the next question is where is Charlet heading? Is he another DONNA up the coast or a near by relative... and papss off the coast ?

Here is the 12z FRI Guidance .... note how charley was suppose to be passing thru JAX or just west of it...
http://files.hurricanealley.net/storms/03LALLMDL.html


Now that he has move off the coast at Daytona the next 2 crictical points are

1) where does he cross the 80 LONG line... at wright weather the large Map of the 00z hurricane models show Charley crossing 80 w LONG at 32 N

2) then passing over CHS to MYR areas AND PASSING WEST AND NORTH OF WILMINGTON NC....

these two points are critical... *** BIG rule in east coast hurricanes is that all things being equal a TC will ALWAYS follow the coast regardless of MODELS (Gloria Bob Emily Belle) unless SOMETHING forces it inland --like in Isabal.

By sat 7Pm the guidance has him right over DT's house...
I think that is wrong.

but I will know in the morning.... if charley cross 80 W long at 30 N.... he Might hit Hatteras and all the storm tracks will HAVE to be adjusted east...

will they ? NO.....

[Guest]

the hurricane models have been too far west since early friday morning... and that the Model trends are again SHIFTING EAST....

if he does NOT pass over CHS MYR saturday morning expect a lot of busted forecasts in the Northeast

MY view is that he wil NOT make landfall over MYR but to the east over NC OB... and the Northeast and Mid atlantic cities will not see a big event