Charley's second landfall call ...

[Stormsfury]

basically I believe it'll be between Charleston and Georgetown, SC ...

http://www.stormsfury1.com/Weather/Forecast.html

[krisj]

Here in Charleston they are saying Mrytle Beach. My inlaws in Mrytle Beach are saying their news says Charleston. So, I guess you are right!

[Anonymous]

Yep I would tend to agree here. It does look like this morning it moved a little right of the projected track even before landfall - slightly NE more than NNE - and that made a huge difference from the original guidance of tracking west of CHAS. I noticed that about 10:00 this morning. Still, I do expect some major impacts here in most of the area.

More rainfall is always welcome here in Summerville/Ladson, since much of the thunderstorms missed us last night and was along the coastal areas only.

[Guest]

im thinking a second landfall of right along the nc/sc border.

[Stormsfury]

Yep I would tend to agree here. It does look like this morning it moved a little right of the projected track even before landfall - slightly NE more than NNE - and that made a huge difference from the original guidance of tracking west of CHAS. I noticed that about 10:00 this morning. Still, I do expect some major impacts here in most of the area.

More rainfall is always welcome here in Summerville/Ladson, since much of the thunderstorms missed us last night and was along the coastal areas only.

Yeah, with the rainfall amounts ... although, I've picked up a couple of inches of rain in the last two days (nothing to really sneeze at) ... some locales have picked up 4"-6" of rain, and there very well will be some power outages (my stepbrother works with SCE&G and undoubtedly will be very, very busy the next two days) ... and trees down, and such ...

Just got a new statement from CHS WFO and it's this .,,

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE CHARLEY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
718 PM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

...HURRICANE CHARLEY CROSSING THE FLORIDA PENINSULA...

...AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS STATEMENT RECOMMENDS SPECIFIC ACTIONS BE TAKEN BY RESIDENTS OF
INLAND MCINTOSH...COASTAL BRYAN...LONG...INLAND LIBERTY...INLAND
BRYAN...EVANS...TATTNALL...COASTAL LIBERTY...COASTAL MCINTOSH...
CANDLER...EFFINGHAM...BULLOCH...JENKINS...SCREVEN...BERKELEY...
DORCHESTER...INLAND COLLETON...ALLENDALE...HAMPTON...CHARLESTON...
COASTAL COLLETON...BEAUFORT...INLAND CHATHAM...INLAND JASPER...
COASTAL JASPER AND COASTAL CHATHAM COUNTIES.

...WATCHES/WARNINGS...

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ENTIRE GEORGIA COAST
AND THE SOUTH CAROLINA COAST FROM THE SAVANNAH RIVER NORTH TO THE
SOUTH SANTEE RIVER.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA FOR TONIGHT AND
SATURDAY. A FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTH COASTAL SOUTH CAROLINA THROUGH SATURDAY.

...STORM INFORMATION...
AT 7 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 27.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 81.8 WEST. THIS POSITION IS 65 MILES
SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF ORLANDO FLORIDA. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
WEAKENED TO NEAR 115 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FURTHER WEAKENING IS
FORECAST WHILE OVER LAND DURING THE NEXT 5 HOURS. HURRICANE CHARLEY
IS MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHEAST NEAR 25 MPH...AND A GRADUAL INCREASE
IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THE STORM WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA THIS EVENING AND
THEN IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE ATLANTIC OCEAN NEAR SAINT AUGUSTINE
AROUND MIDNIGHT. A SECOND LANDFALL IS EXPECTED AS A CATEGORY ONE
HURRICANE BETWEEN CHARLESTON AND MYRTLE BEACH AROUND NOON SATURDAY.

EVEN MINOR CHANGES IN THE FORECAST TRACK OF HURRICANE CHARLEY CAN
RESULT IN LARGE DIFFERENCES IN THE EXPECTED CONDITIONS. ALL CITIZENS
IN THE AFFECTED AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS STORM VERY
CLOSELY.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS WINDS GREATER THAN 73 MPH ARE LIKELY WITHIN
THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

AN INLAND TROPICAL STORM WIND WARNING MEANS WINDS BETWEEN 39 MPH AND
73 MPH ARE LIKELY WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

...PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
THE STATE OF SOUTH CAROLINA HAS RECOMMENDED VOLUNTARY EVACUATIONS OF
LOW LYING AREAS IN BEAUFORT...COLLETON AND JASPER COUNTIES.

...WIND IMPACTS...
ALONG THE NORTHERN GEORGIA COAST EARLY SATURDAY MORNING...TROPICAL
STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 50 MPH ARE EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS TO
HURRICANE FORCE...IN EXCESS OF 73 MPH. BY LATE MORNING ALONG THE
SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COAST...WINDS OF 55 TO 75 MPH ARE
EXPECTED...WITH GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 85 MPH...ESPECIALLY IN COASTAL
CHARLESTON COUNTY.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
BECAUSE ON THE CURRENT PROJECTED STRENGTH AND LOCATION OF THE TRACK
OF CHARLEY...WINDS WILL BE OFFSHORE ALONG THE GEORGIA AND MOST OF THE
SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS. THEREFORE...TIDES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 3 TO 5
FEET ABOVE PREDICTED LEVELS...WITH THE HIGHEST STORM TIDES IN
CHARLESTON COUNTY. MODERATE BEACH EROSION WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS
STORM.

...SEAS AND RIP CURRENTS...
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS AND SEAS BUILDING TO 16 FEET WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE COASTAL WATERS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY. MARINERS SHOULD REMAIN IN
PORT. DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL BE LIKELY AS THE STORM APPROACHES.

...FLOOD IMPACTS...
WITH THE RAINFALL DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS FROM THE REMNANTS OF
BONNIE...THE GROUND IS ALREADY SATURATED IN SOME AREAS. AN ADDITIONAL
3 TO 6 INCHES OF RAIN IS FORECAST ALONG THE PATH OF CHARLEY...WITH
LOCALLY HEAVIER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE. SIGNIFICANT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN
PLACES WITH POOR DRAINAGE...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON HURRICANE CHARLEY CAN BE FOUND IN
ADVISORIES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER...PUBLIC
INFORMATION STATEMENTS AND SHORT TERM FORECASTS ISSUED BY THIS
OFFICE.

...PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS...
THE STRIKE PROBABILITY FOR CHARLEY IS AROUND 40 PERCENT AT BOTH
CHARLESTON AND SAVANNAH.

...NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT TROPICAL STORM LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.

$$

[Anonymous]

Ok I would not disagree with the local NWS statement here. Most of the scenerio described should be expected, IF Charley maintains its NNE track during the next 24hrs.

Interestingly , Charley remains a dangerous hurricane with sustained winds of 115mph - although it moved inland several hours ago ! Quite impressive on radar display too. It's held together very well:



Plus after it re-emerges over water, it may even regenerate to possibly a strong/moderate cat 1. The waters are certainly warm enough to do that. The only other factor that might limit rapid re-intensification would be it's fast forward motion >25mph and limited time over water. And yes, SCE&G will be busy !! Power outages will not be out of the question.

[krisj]

Wow, good information. What time do you think we will start to notice the storm tomorrow?

[Stormsfury]

Wow, good information. What time do you think we will start to notice the storm tomorrow?

Daybreak tomorrow morning ...

SF

[Anonymous]

Wow, good information. What time do you think we will start to notice the storm tomorrow?

Well the northern most feederbands are located just south of Jacksonville at moment, heading NE 25mph. A better view of the convective activity can be seen from Jacksonville radar.

most activity is moving NE at about 25mph - so we should be able to see some effects from Charley about 3AM, along with increased winds from the SE.