Who I Blame

[MWatkins]

First of all, there is the legitimate question about should anyone be blamed at all. It's a fair question.

After considering that issue on the drive home, I think there is someone to blame. And it's not who you think I think it is.

First of all, the general perception is that people in Ft Myers and Sanibel and other places directly impacted were underprepared. I don't know that for sure because I don't live there. For all we know right now people could have been exceedingly prepared. But that's not the message I'm hearing from the media.

Over 2 national outlets in the last hour I have hear the same thing. The hurricane crossed the coast 55 miles south of where it was expected to.

You've heard that, right?

Now...who's saying that? You got it, THE MEDIA. Other than the Jim Cantore curse getting shattered today, most camera crews were not in Ft Myers because guess what...that's not where the big story was. The big story was further north in Tampa Bay where they have a shallow bay and WAY more evacuated people.

As far as the media is concerned a major hitting Tampa is like the Cubs winning the world series. This is the story the media WANTED. Huge, urban population.

From the 9AM Public Advisory:

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

Anybody see TAMPA in there? No. The media got the forecast track they wanted and went with it...despite signs appearing as early as last night that this track could move back to the east.

The NHC/TPC did not BLOW this forecast. No way. They conveyed everything they needed to. The media wanted a Tampa landfall. They didnt get it. And now...I'm already hearing signs that they are blaming the TPC. The local people here have gone out of their way to demonstrate how "far" the track was off.

Well...the NHC Ft Myers strike probs were higher than Tampa all day today. Who's track was off?

Very angrily...

MW

[weatherluvr]

Great post, and I agree 100%.

[Guest]

welll we disagree on one point....


the 11am advisory was a cluster f--k of the highest order

The media is NOT screaming about JUST b/c Tampa was NOT hit... what you say is true but its NOT the ONLY thing... they KNOW b/c private mets went NUTS at the 11am forecast of not upgrading... to a CAT 3...

they know that Charley did NOT go from a cat 2 to a 4 in 2.5 hrs...


right now I am alll pheklempt... talk amongst yourselves ...

[KBBOCA]

MW... understand your anger. Yet let's be thankful first:

1) from many accounts, the Fort Myers area was pretty prepared. Of course no one knew it was gonna be a Cat. 4 storm... but prelim. reports suggest the Fort Myers area officials took Charley seriously and evacuated Sanibel, Captiva, etc. So the officials were not led too astray by the media hype. They did their jobs.

2) the other thing to be thankful for is that by hitting where it did, Charley affected maybe 950,000 folks directly at landfall instead of 3.5 million. And although Orlando and Daytona (and Jax?) are troublingly in its path, still, Charley is mostly cutting across much less populated areas than had been the case with a Tampa landfall.

Tonight, let's be glad for the good news we have. The blame game can start another day... Just my $.02

[Pburgh]

KB, I agree. I'm not into the blame game.

[Anonymous]

Agree with DT. They had evidence of a Cat 3 before the 11 AM and did not go with it. Maybe they should stop writing their reports 60 to 90 minutes early for a change.

[schmita]

Mr. Watkins,
Where were you today? People on this board questioned that earlier. I think that you have it all wrong. The media hyped nothing. NHC did not give the correct information over the TV waves. They did not announce Cat 3. How was that hype? That was known by all of us hours before it hit the media. Stop bellyaching.
My family lived in Hialeah and lived through Andrew in 92 and a direct tornado hit in 94 or 95. Who can remember.
They now live 30 minutes east of Lake Okeechobee and are getting major weather.
I know live in Sint Maarten, a location the Weather Channel seems not to know it exists. We are now watching TD5.
Methinks you complain too much.
This board has been a great help to me and my family today.
I don't know you. Should I ?
VERY ANGRILY?!!!!
IRINA

[FloridaDawn]

Mike,

You got it 100% right. The area hit was is the hurricane warning area, so no mistakes were made by the Hurricane Center. I think they did a wonderful job with this one! This is not an exact science, which is why they put up warnings covering a large area. People need to learn that if you are in the warning area, be prepared, and thank god if you don't get it! Living on the east coast near Ft Lauderdale, I trusted them 100% that the storm would not bother us.

[MWatkins]

welll we disagree on one point....


the 11am advisory was a cluster f--k of the highest order

The media is NOT screaming about JUST b/c Tampa was NOT hit... what you say is true but its NOT the ONLY thing... they KNOW b/c private mets went NUTS at the 11am forecast of not upgrading... to a CAT 3...

they know that Charley did NOT go from a cat 2 to a 4 in 2.5 hrs...


right now I am alll pheklempt... talk amongst yourselves ...

You know what...as I continue to think about you are 1000% correct. I only got half of the picture.

This is the TPC worst case senario.

1. They did not upgrade to a cat 3 when it was on the border because they were still hanging on to a track parrell to the coast.

2. It intensified...with a contracting eye over warm water with excellent outflow in a very short period of time.

3. but...it didnt happen over night.

Hopefully...they will take this into consideration before they decide to hold off on an upgrade to what is otherwise an arbitrary classification between systems that were only 5 knots apart on paper.

MW

[joseph01]

I think the camera crews descended on Tampa because 8 hours ago, that's where the National Hurricane Center's forcast track suggested it would come ashore. (Actually, it suggested just offshore of Tampa) Doesn't that thick black line running down the center of the forcast cone mean anything?

You'll notice that I'm not blaming anyone, and I'm sure they did the best they could. However, I would be hard pressed to call it outstanding work.

[Derecho]

The basic problem is private citizens need to stop looking at the forecast track when they're under a hurricane warning and act like it's coming directly at them.

Sanibel/Port Charlotte had the appropriate Hurricane Watches/Warnings at the appropriate time. the areas are DESIGNED assuming the typical NHC track error.

Most TV stations and websites don't display the probability cone, just the line.

When people see the line more than 10 miles away from them they decide they aren't going to be hit.

[MWatkins]

Mr. Watkins,
Where were you today? People on this board questioned that earlier. I think that you have it all wrong. The media hyped nothing. NHC did not give the correct information over the TV waves. They did not announce Cat 3. How was that hype? That was known by all of us hours before it hit the media. Stop bellyaching.
My family lived in Hialeah and lived through Andrew in 92 and a direct tornado hit in 94 or 95. Who can remember.
They now live 30 minutes east of Lake Okeechobee and are getting major weather.
I know live in Sint Maarten, a location the Weather Channel seems not to know it exists. We are now watching TD5.
Methinks you complain too much.
This board has been a great help to me and my family today.
I don't know you. Should I ?
VERY ANGRILY?!!!!
IRINA

The biggest problem I had today was that my company's network was so bogged down that I couldn't access the net most of the day. I had to work today....unfortunately there was nothing I could do to mitigate that. I did call in briefly to the roundtable audio show...and i fieleded about 50 to 75 work-related calls before 3pm regarding this situation.

That said...the biggest problem I have is the media directly or indiretly taking shots at the NHC...just noting that the forecast track was 55 miles off is completely wrong (nbc miami today)...because the NHC does not forecast that way. The NHC NEVER said a specific point was going to get hit.

MW

[Lindaloo]

Mr. Watkins,
Where were you today? People on this board questioned that earlier. I think that you have it all wrong. The media hyped nothing. NHC did not give the correct information over the TV waves. They did not announce Cat 3. How was that hype? That was known by all of us hours before it hit the media. Stop bellyaching.
My family lived in Hialeah and lived through Andrew in 92 and a direct tornado hit in 94 or 95. Who can remember.
They now live 30 minutes east of Lake Okeechobee and are getting major weather.
I know live in Sint Maarten, a location the Weather Channel seems not to know it exists. We are now watching TD5.
Methinks you complain too much.
This board has been a great help to me and my family today.
I don't know you. Should I ?
VERY ANGRILY?!!!!
IRINA

He is not "bellyaching" Maybe you should read his post again. This storm was hyped by the media and they wanted a Tampa landfall. I even saw on the news this evening where a man said "he did not even know a hurricane was coming" Um hello? Was he listening to the media? Sure he was!!

S2K is glad we were of help to you, but attacking one of our S2K forecasters is totally uncalled for.

[SouthernWx]

Mike I agree with you....the core of Charley made landfall inside the hurricane warning area. Hurricanes are large and capricious storms....very unpredictable, ESPECIALLY when they deepen rapidly. Anyone who lives in Charlotte or Lee county, Florida and screams they had no warning has no clue to how the NHC warning process works. If you are within the hurricane WARNING...it means you should prepare for hurricane conditions (NEVER focus on the hurricane forecast track...check the margin for error....if you are inside it, you are in danger). The margin for error and state of the art dictates NHC "overwarn" with a cone of safety...just in case what we witnessed today happens.

I just hope and pray there isn't a human catastrophe down there we don't know about yet (on those barrier islands). We don't know yet....because we don't know how many residents of Captiva and Sanibel Islands were apathetic and refused to evacuate.
With the strength of this hurricane at landfall and the IMO 15-20' storm surge....if they didn't leave, most are now deceased.

[Rainband]

I am sorry but our media here did a great Job. The storm struck within the forecast cone, it could have struck tampa I didn't see any hype from our locals. They insured our safety. NO ONE!!!! knew exactly where this was going

[Rainband]

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM THE
DRY TORTUGAS TO THE SEVEN MILE BRIDGE...AND FOR THE FLORIDA WEST
COAST FROM EAST CAPE SABLE NORTHWARD TO THE STEINHATCHEE RIVER. A
HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS. PREPARATIONS
SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

We were in that warning area and so was tampa

[Lindaloo]

I am sorry but our media here did a great Job. The storm struck within the forecast cone, it could have struck tampa I didn't see any hype from our locals. They insured our safety. NO ONE!!!! knew exactly where this was going

Talking about network media, not your local media buddy!

[schmita]

I love Pascagoula. Used to go to the state park back when I was stationed in Biloxi.
Media hype: Wasn't Tampa the original strike location? I could swear I read that here on S2K.
Media hype: Cat 2 when everyone knew it was a real Cat 3? Why didn't the "media" report that?
Media hype: You saw a man on the news who did not even know a hurricane was coming? How is that media hype? I lived in Florida a long time and I can tell you what that is. It is not Media hype.
Sorry to have "attacked" one of your S2K forecasters but really, free speech?
I just call them as I see them. No more on this subject from me.
Ciao
i

[MWatkins]

I love Pascagoula. Used to go to the state park back when I was stationed in Biloxi.
Media hype: Wasn't Tampa the original strike location? I could swear I read that here on S2K.
Media hype: Cat 2 when everyone knew it was a real Cat 3? Why didn't the "media" report that?
Media hype: You saw a man on the news who did not even know a hurricane was coming? How is that media hype? I lived in Florida a long time and I can tell you what that is. It is not Media hype.
Sorry to have "attacked" one of your S2K forecasters but really, free speech?
I just call them as I see them. No more on this subject from me.
Ciao
i

The media you hear is not all media...please remember that.

MW

[jlauderdal]

The basic problem is private citizens need to stop looking at the forecast track when they're under a hurricane warning and act like it's coming directly at them.

Sanibel/Port Charlotte had the appropriate Hurricane Watches/Warnings at the appropriate time. the areas are DESIGNED assuming the typical NHC track error.

Most TV stations and websites don't display the probability cone, just the line.

When people see the line more than 10 miles away from them they decide they aren't going to be hit.

The cone was fine and Derecho is right. As long as you are in the cone or close you better prepare like you are getting it. I live in lauderdale and I had shutters up for georges and floyd and i never had it but all of south florida was ready like it was coming here. Anyone from naples to tampa that wasn't prpeared deserved everything they got.

TPC stuck that track all the way. Intensity is a problem but they admit and know it. i have complained about media disinformation for two days on this board and most people i think blew it off. Its a real thing. I said two days ago here that NHC and this board are your best bet.