I Blew It!
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Yah, don't beat yourself up about this. NHC was wrong as well. You know how complex forecasting can be. Tropical meteorology can sometimes be a very tricky creature. You did the best you could with the information available, and thats all anyone could ask. Really, did anyone forecast this turn of events?
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adelphi_sky
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 193
- Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 11:12 pm
- Location: Adelphi, MD
You did as well as you could... Mother Nature has a mind of her own. I have the utmost respect for those who forecast. As far as where Charlie will go next... well I am not taking a chance. Water bottles are full of water, cars are gassed up, there is plenty of gas for the generator and the plywood is ready to go on the windows tomorrow. If Charlie makes a hit up here in NC I plan on being ready.
NCBird
New Bern, NC
NCBird
New Bern, NC
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Stephanie
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23843
- Age: 63
- Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:53 am
- Location: Glassboro, NJ
Derek - please don't beat yourself up about it. I can't help to think about Lili last year when everyone saw that she was a major hurricane and then pretty much died before coming ashore. Noone saw that either.
When I come to review the forecasts for the tropics, yours has been and will be one of the first topics I'll look at.
When I come to review the forecasts for the tropics, yours has been and will be one of the first topics I'll look at.
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Carolina_survivor
- Tropical Storm
- Posts: 103
- Joined: Fri Sep 12, 2003 12:59 pm
- Location: Williamston, NC
always look for your forecasts
Your forecast was a big help to me!
You kept reminding us that the storm could possibly cross Florida's east coast, go back into the Atlantic, restrengthen and hit SC/NC -- even though all the other forecasters and all the computer models said otherwise.
After seeing your forecast earlier today, I went ahead and hit the grocery store, avoiding the crowds that I'm sure are there right now. You were the first forecaster I saw who said NC might be in for a second landfall rather than just a rainy, inland "remnants" event.
Several hours after I read your forecast, all the local meteorologists around here finally started slapping their foreheads and going, DUH! They stayed quiet about a 2nd landfall until around the time of our 6 p.m. news.
Your forecasts were helpful when Alex hit the Outer Banks as well. I 'll continue to look for your forecasts.
You kept reminding us that the storm could possibly cross Florida's east coast, go back into the Atlantic, restrengthen and hit SC/NC -- even though all the other forecasters and all the computer models said otherwise.
After seeing your forecast earlier today, I went ahead and hit the grocery store, avoiding the crowds that I'm sure are there right now. You were the first forecaster I saw who said NC might be in for a second landfall rather than just a rainy, inland "remnants" event.
Several hours after I read your forecast, all the local meteorologists around here finally started slapping their foreheads and going, DUH! They stayed quiet about a 2nd landfall until around the time of our 6 p.m. news.
Your forecasts were helpful when Alex hit the Outer Banks as well. I 'll continue to look for your forecasts.
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HurricaneBill
- Category 5
- Posts: 3420
- Joined: Sun Apr 11, 2004 5:51 pm
- Location: East Longmeadow, MA, USA
Derek, you did what you were supposed to do. You forecasted.
You were forecasting with the information and data you had.
You did the best you could with the information you had.
Forecasts will not always (if at all) be 100% accurate. Weather can be unpredictable. That goes for hurricanes.
IMHO, there is no reason for you to apologize.
You were forecasting with the information and data you had.
You did the best you could with the information you had.
Forecasts will not always (if at all) be 100% accurate. Weather can be unpredictable. That goes for hurricanes.
IMHO, there is no reason for you to apologize.
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