Ladies and gentlemen,
I totally blew it this morning. Despite having days worth of forecasts verifying, for no good, scientific reason, I changed the track, completely blowing the forecast. The intensity forecast was a pile of cow dung as well and should have been better anticipated, especially after a similar scenario under similar synoptis conditions occured just 10 days ago with Alex.
I know an appology isnt going to make things totally right. Only thing I can say is those farther up the coast in the Carolinas need to prepare for this. Lets not allow history to repeat itself again. Be prepared. Today showed what complaciency does.
I Blew It!
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Anonymous
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Guest
hey... only human
everyone is entitled...
(but... would you like some condiments with that crow?)
just kidding.. . thanks for the honesty...
and I hope everyone in Florida and the rest of Charleys path has an angel on their shoulder...
(but... would you like some condiments with that crow?)
just kidding.. . thanks for the honesty...
and I hope everyone in Florida and the rest of Charleys path has an angel on their shoulder...
Last edited by Guest on Fri Aug 13, 2004 4:49 pm, edited 3 times in total.
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The_Cycloman_PR
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Derek,
All day long when I looked for the old familuar names on the board, I saw yours and I took comfort that you were there for me, as you have been for years. I am mostly a lurker, but I appreciate your efforts. Please don't feel bad. The NHC blew it too.
At 4:30 today, I got the word the the barrier islands in brevard were asked to evacuate. At little late for THAT I'd say. All I can do is hunker down with the family and hope for the best. Thanks again,
Denise
All day long when I looked for the old familuar names on the board, I saw yours and I took comfort that you were there for me, as you have been for years. I am mostly a lurker, but I appreciate your efforts. Please don't feel bad. The NHC blew it too.
At 4:30 today, I got the word the the barrier islands in brevard were asked to evacuate. At little late for THAT I'd say. All I can do is hunker down with the family and hope for the best. Thanks again,
Denise
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weatherluvr
- Category 2
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- Joined: Thu Sep 04, 2003 1:25 pm
- Location: Long Island NY
Given the shallow angle of approach, the unexpected rapid deepening, and the many wobbles he took, this storm was a near impossibility for any forecaster to get right. The best thing we can do is study the data thoroughly, and try to learn from it. Maybe the smoking gun to detecting sudden intensity changes can be found.
You did good in my book, Derek.
You did good in my book, Derek.
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Derek,
You, along with the many mets on here did as good a job as your resources and training would allow. You guys are doing at least as good a job, in light of what you have to work with, that the NHC does.
The truth of the matter is that tropical meteorology just isn't, and likely never will be, susceptible to such precise calculations as we come to expect from things such as, chemistry, physics, blah, blah ... You guys are dealing with extremely, EXTREMELY, fluid variables and it's amazing to me that you guys do as well as you do.
Don't kick yourself. Same for all you other mets out there. One thing that you guys can take away from this is, perhaps, a little bit more respect for the limits of the state of your craft.
Chin up and thank all you mets out there for taking the time to explain this stuff to all of us.
You, along with the many mets on here did as good a job as your resources and training would allow. You guys are doing at least as good a job, in light of what you have to work with, that the NHC does.
The truth of the matter is that tropical meteorology just isn't, and likely never will be, susceptible to such precise calculations as we come to expect from things such as, chemistry, physics, blah, blah ... You guys are dealing with extremely, EXTREMELY, fluid variables and it's amazing to me that you guys do as well as you do.
Don't kick yourself. Same for all you other mets out there. One thing that you guys can take away from this is, perhaps, a little bit more respect for the limits of the state of your craft.
Chin up and thank all you mets out there for taking the time to explain this stuff to all of us.
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Derek Ortt
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Hyperstorm
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cycloneye
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Even the best in this science is wrong so dont feel bad my friend.The tropics offers surprises many times.
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GulfBreezer
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Derek........as far as I am concerned you still have the full repsect that this board offers!!! I have weathered enough of these storms to have learned a long time ago that very rarely is there EVER 100% accuracy in predicting Mother Nature. We can use all the tools available but we can never know for certain what she has up her sleeve. You are an asset here and that has not changed!!
Sandi
Sandi
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