I Blew It!

[Derek Ortt]

Ladies and gentlemen,

I totally blew it this morning. Despite having days worth of forecasts verifying, for no good, scientific reason, I changed the track, completely blowing the forecast. The intensity forecast was a pile of cow dung as well and should have been better anticipated, especially after a similar scenario under similar synoptis conditions occured just 10 days ago with Alex.

I know an appology isnt going to make things totally right. Only thing I can say is those farther up the coast in the Carolinas need to prepare for this. Lets not allow history to repeat itself again. Be prepared. Today showed what complaciency does.

[Bane]

Exactly how strong do you think this might get before making landfall near Myrtle Beach tomorrow?

[Anonymous]

Now now.
Nobody (except over-enthused weater fanatics who love to see powerful hurricanes) predicted Charley to be this strong. Crow tastes good im finding that out.

[jaysonx]

It is going to be most interesting to see what the storm looks like when it comes off the other coast.

[msbee]

Derek
I respect your posts and your knowledge.
I repsect that you apologize for being wrong.
you're a good guy.
even good guys make mistakes LOL
forecasting is not an exact science yet.

[tallbunch]

Hell, no one knows.

I would like to point out that I guess right. I said it would go back to the east and not hit GA or SC...looks like more NC to me cause they get everything.

[Guest]

everyone is entitled...

(but... would you like some condiments with that crow?)

just kidding.. . thanks for the honesty...

and I hope everyone in Florida and the rest of Charleys path has an angel on their shoulder...

[The_Cycloman_PR]

At least you are as brave as you can be to accept your mistakes!!!

For being so brave you have my deepest admiration!

Congratulation for being so honest!!!

Cycloman,

[Guest]

Mother Nature isn't predictable. That's the only thing that was proved today. No worries Derek.
...Jennifer...

[Windsong]

Derek,

All day long when I looked for the old familuar names on the board, I saw yours and I took comfort that you were there for me, as you have been for years. I am mostly a lurker, but I appreciate your efforts. Please don't feel bad. The NHC blew it too.

At 4:30 today, I got the word the the barrier islands in brevard were asked to evacuate. At little late for THAT I'd say. All I can do is hunker down with the family and hope for the best. Thanks again,
Denise

[weatherluvr]

Given the shallow angle of approach, the unexpected rapid deepening, and the many wobbles he took, this storm was a near impossibility for any forecaster to get right. The best thing we can do is study the data thoroughly, and try to learn from it. Maybe the smoking gun to detecting sudden intensity changes can be found.

You did good in my book, Derek.

[Ixolib]

Isn't it the un-predictability that makes the study of this phenomana so interesting??? If it was exact, what would be the challenge!!

[Agua]

Derek,

You, along with the many mets on here did as good a job as your resources and training would allow. You guys are doing at least as good a job, in light of what you have to work with, that the NHC does.

The truth of the matter is that tropical meteorology just isn't, and likely never will be, susceptible to such precise calculations as we come to expect from things such as, chemistry, physics, blah, blah ... You guys are dealing with extremely, EXTREMELY, fluid variables and it's amazing to me that you guys do as well as you do.

Don't kick yourself. Same for all you other mets out there. One thing that you guys can take away from this is, perhaps, a little bit more respect for the limits of the state of your craft.

Chin up and thank all you mets out there for taking the time to explain this stuff to all of us.

[perk]

Derek i would'nt beat myself up too much about it. And although appreciated i don't think an apology is necessary you know as well as everyone on this board that forecasting tropical weather is an inexact science. Chill out and get ready for TD#5.

[Rainband]

Derek, You know I respect your forecast and ability. Charley fooled everyone

[Derek Ortt]

I have to pull myself together for tomorrow's Carolina landfall, and I will be providing updates until the ystem is well inland

[Hyperstorm]

There shouldn't be ANY apologies because WE ALL know how unpredicatable weather can be, even when we think we can govern it.

I hope this is a lesson for you and us to NEVER SAY NEVER in the tropics and that forecasting weather with anything close to 100% accuracy is IMPOSSIBLE.

[cycloneye]

Even the best in this science is wrong so dont feel bad my friend.The tropics offers surprises many times.

[GulfBreezer]

Derek........as far as I am concerned you still have the full repsect that this board offers!!! I have weathered enough of these storms to have learned a long time ago that very rarely is there EVER 100% accuracy in predicting Mother Nature. We can use all the tools available but we can never know for certain what she has up her sleeve. You are an asset here and that has not changed!!

Sandi

[bjacobs99]

don't sweat it....NC still wants to know what you think....and don't take to long i don't think we have the time