bad news, I have shifted track a couple tenths left

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
Derek Ortt

bad news, I have shifted track a couple tenths left

#1 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:41 am

right toward tampa now, raking the coast all the way from ft myers.

also, watch out in sc and the ec of florida

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl032004forecast.html


good news is I dont suspect more than a marginal 3 at this point
0 likes   
Top
Guest

#2 Postby Guest » Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:43 am

Cat 3 minimal is hardly good news Ortt.
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#3 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:44 am

its a hell of a lot better than a strong 3 as I was thinking yesterday evening or a 4
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Stephanie
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 23843
Age: 63
Joined: Thu Feb 06, 2003 9:53 am
Location: Glassboro, NJ

#4 Postby Stephanie » Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:47 am

Derek Ortt wrote:its a hell of a lot better than a strong 3 as I was thinking yesterday evening or a 4


This is true and you DID start your topic title off as "Bad news..."
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
The Dark Knight
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 800
Joined: Fri Jun 18, 2004 11:18 am
Location: Mashpee, Cape Cod, MA
Contact:
Contact The Dark Knight

#5 Postby The Dark Knight » Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:47 am

Why did you shift your track left.....
0 likes   
Top
Josephine96

#6 Postby Josephine96 » Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:49 am

Thanks for your update Derek.. I'll be watching the tracks closely to see how windwhipped I'm going to get here lol
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#7 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:50 am

Because the previous track started at 82.6 and this one at 82.9. There is no way the 18Z position from the 0900 forecast will verify
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
sponger
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 1626
Joined: Thu Jul 22, 2004 11:26 am
Location: St Augustine

#8 Postby sponger » Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:53 am

I was worried we would wake up to 130 mph storm! Cat III stinks but its all relative now!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
The Dark Knight
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 800
Joined: Fri Jun 18, 2004 11:18 am
Location: Mashpee, Cape Cod, MA
Contact:
Contact The Dark Knight

#9 Postby The Dark Knight » Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:54 am

Gotchya......
0 likes   
Top
Josephine96

#10 Postby Josephine96 » Fri Aug 13, 2004 8:57 am

I'm just anxiously awaiting to see what Charlie will bring to my area here..

Hurricane Force winds I'm thinking.. along with wind gusts higher
0 likes   
Top
Air Force Met
Military Met
Military Met
Posts: 4372
Age: 56
Joined: Tue Jul 08, 2003 9:30 am
Location: Roan Mountain, TN

#11 Postby Air Force Met » Fri Aug 13, 2004 9:14 am

Yeah...think cat4 is out of the question now. Low cat 3 probably. The eye is so small...not rapid development is coming from that.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
RevDodd
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 184
Joined: Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:40 am
Location: Fayetteville, NC
Contact:
Contact RevDodd

#12 Postby RevDodd » Fri Aug 13, 2004 9:15 am

Hmm: One of those polka dots is sitting right on Fayetteville...how about you keep nudging Charley?
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#13 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 13, 2004 9:31 am

that looks to be the best case scenario for the Atlantic. A worst case is more time over water and possible regeneration
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hyperstorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1500
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 3:48 am
Location: Ocala, FL

#14 Postby Hyperstorm » Fri Aug 13, 2004 1:13 pm

Well, this just PROVES the point that NOTHING is SET IN STONE in the TROPICS. STRONG Cat. 4 now likely! Everyone must THANK GOD that the storm is making landfall in 2 HOURS...Yes, you must thank God. If this had stayed over water for 2-3 hours longer, we would have seen this go ALL THE WAY to......YES......CATEGORY 5....
0 likes   
Top
Guest

#15 Postby Guest » Fri Aug 13, 2004 1:16 pm

yup two bust.
0 likes   
Top
OtherHD
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2192
Age: 39
Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2002 10:01 am
Location: San Antonio, TX

#16 Postby OtherHD » Fri Aug 13, 2004 1:26 pm

Hyperstorm, no, we would have seen an eyewall replacement cycle. Cat5's are VERY rare......
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hyperstorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1500
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 3:48 am
Location: Ocala, FL

#17 Postby Hyperstorm » Fri Aug 13, 2004 1:51 pm

OtherHD wrote:Hyperstorm, no, we would have seen an eyewall replacement cycle. Cat5's are VERY rare......


Actually, we wouldn't have. These EXPLOSIVE deepening phases last for 18-24 hours...
0 likes   
Top
Derek Ortt

#18 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 13, 2004 3:09 pm

The track error was within the margin of error. However, still no excuse. I flat out blew the forecast. I have to admit, I was paying more attention to the east coast threat than I was a slight deviation.

As for intensity, well, anything anyone decides to heap at me for that is incredibly well deserved.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Nimbus
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5444
Joined: Mon Jul 19, 2004 10:54 am

#19 Postby Nimbus » Fri Aug 13, 2004 3:19 pm

Which eyewall is going over Tampa bay? The storm surge would be worse if the strong side of the storm pushed water up Tampa bay. I live just west of Tampa should I evacuate?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hyperstorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1500
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 3:48 am
Location: Ocala, FL

#20 Postby Hyperstorm » Fri Aug 13, 2004 3:28 pm

Nimbus wrote:Which eyewall is going over Tampa bay? The storm surge would be worse if the strong side of the storm pushed water up Tampa bay. I live just west of Tampa should I evacuate?


Although it is NEVER too late, I would recommend you stay where you are now. The winds will increase dramatically over the next few hours and you don't want to be caught off guard. The saving grace for the Tampa area is that worst of the storm should remain to its east. No significant surge is expected where you are so hold on...
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Hammy and 422 guests