Tropical Depression Four Advisory Number 1

[Patrick99]

Fish? I guess the percentages are in that favor, but some *do* make it all the way across, don't they? What about Donna? What about the famous 1928 Okeechobee storm? Didn't Georges pretty much make it all the way across? Andrew? I'm sure there are plenty of other examples. Isn't it a bit premature to scream Fish, unless there's something there that's obviously going to jack it up and out? Is there such a feature currently out there?

[HURAKAN]

Those that made it all the way and impacted land, I will like to call them "FISH OUT OF THE WATER".

[Air Force Met]

Fish? I guess the percentages are in that favor, but some *do* make it all the way across, don't they? What about Donna? What about the famous 1928 Okeechobee storm? Didn't Georges pretty much make it all the way across? Andrew? I'm sure there are plenty of other examples. Isn't it a bit premature to scream Fish, unless there's something there that's obviously going to jack it up and out? Is there such a feature currently out there?

Yes...some do make it all the way across. This one may IF it doesn't develop anymore than it has already. I am banking on it getting stronger and since it will be stronger...it will probably feel out the weakness in the ridge that will be in the central Atlantic in about 4-5 days. So...looking at the climo and the GFS...it looks like a fish..UNLESS it stays real weakl....then it has a chance.

[Trader Ron]

AFM is a gentleman from what i can see.

[Air Force Met]

AFM is a gentleman from what i can see.

Thanks. I really believe it is a case of mistaken identity.

One thing people have to remember about meteorologist. We HATE to be wrong with every fiber of our being. HATE IT! What the average person amy view as arrogance is really confidence. That is the way you have to be in this biz.

I gaurantee that when a met blows a forecast...the one who is the most upset about it is the met (if they are any good, that is). Everyone else shruggs it off but mets don't get over it. Hence a forecast for Bonnie and Charley to be a fish on my part would have been a major bust. If mets get upset at themselves when they do bust...Imagine what happens when they didn't bust and someone says they did.

Again...you have to understand that meteorologists hate to be wrong AND they are more critical (by and large) of their forecasting errors than the ones who are looking at the blown forecast. For them it is just another example of "well...you can't trust the weather guy (which I hear all the time from the pilots)...to us it is personal.

[Hurrilurker]

AFM, its the whay you said and the tone it was carried in. You have a bad habit from the posts I have read of yours to be very arrogant

I don't know either one of you, so I have no sides to take. As a neutral observer, it seemed to me that you, alxfamlaw, were the one who came in with an attitude, if anyone did. You outright accused him of something he did not do (twice), then could not back it up with proof, and adopted a mean-spirited defensive posture yourself. BTW, you'd think those seven years of higher education might have taught you the difference between "your" and "you're". Not something I'd normally care about, but I'll mention it since you insist on flaunting it in defense of your actions.

Anyway, back to TD 4...

[LaBreeze]

Does anyone know if there are more strong fronts coming anytime soon in order to lift out possible Danielle? My thoughts are with you in Florida. I almost feel guilty with such absolutely beautiful fall-like weather here. Stay safe Floridians!

[Hyperstorm]

¿¿FISH?? Be careful Northern Lesser Antilles.




-------------------------------OR---------------------------

AGAIN?!

Exactly! Doesn't it remind you of Isabel's track last year? Hmmm.....NEVER SAY NEVER

[alicia-w]

Let's hope the forecasters and their models are correct on this one. And meanwhile there's Earl sneaking in the back door while everyone's sniping about who's right and who's wrong. One thing remains certain; NONE OF US has ANY control over where these things go and what they do. The ONLY thing we can do is to make intelligent choices and decisions to protect our property as much as we possibly can and to make sure our loved ones get out of harm's way. Period.