NHC 11 a.m. may be inaccurate

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Derek Ortt

NHC 11 a.m. may be inaccurate

#1 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 13, 2004 10:02 am

They kept the winds at 95kT despite recon of all things.

If you are on the west coast, know that this IS a cat 3 based upon recon
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Pebbles
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#2 Postby Pebbles » Fri Aug 13, 2004 10:04 am

I hope they make mention of it in the discussion like they did last night.. at least they tagged at the end that they had a late recon reading.
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#3 Postby Brent » Fri Aug 13, 2004 10:06 am

I hold a lot of respect for the NHC, but two things disturb me about the 11am advisory:

No upgrade. Winds were more than sufficent for a Category Three.

and lastly, no hurricane WARNING for Northeast Florida/Georgia. They now have a watch from Flagler Beach to GA/SC border BUT hurricane force winds are likely within 18 hours.

:roll:
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#4 Postby Steve H. » Fri Aug 13, 2004 10:12 am

If he comes in near Ft. Myers/Venice they'll need to extend that hur watch south to Cocoa Beach!
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#5 Postby jaysonx » Fri Aug 13, 2004 10:14 am

It seems like at this point they are trending very conservative because they are still unsure about what exactly is going to happen.

It could potentially be a dangerous game they are playing.

I would hope by 2:00 / 5:00 updates they will have their story straight.
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#6 Postby opera ghost » Fri Aug 13, 2004 10:14 am

I simply cannot thing of a single reason to not upgrade this is the winds are sufficient... and a LOT of reasons why it woudl be smart to upgrade it.

Are we all looking at the same data?
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#7 Postby Guest » Fri Aug 13, 2004 10:15 am

FOLKS

TPC screwed up here... big time... this is a
Cat 3 965 MB 121 knots flt level... and unlike isabel it is NOT pulling in dry air.

I dont see why they kept it as a cat 2....
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#8 Postby Anonymous » Fri Aug 13, 2004 10:18 am

Damn his eye is so tiny.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... VIS/20.jpg

Agreed big blunder by the NHC, as the next advisory it may strengthen a little past 120 mph, forcing them to do a massive wind upgrade before it nears the coast.
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#9 Postby Hurricane Cheese » Fri Aug 13, 2004 10:18 am

Still nothing updated on the NHC page.


Maybe they are holding them up for an update????
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#10 Postby Aquawind » Fri Aug 13, 2004 10:19 am

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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Trader Ron
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#11 Postby Trader Ron » Fri Aug 13, 2004 10:19 am

The Sun was out for a few minutes here in Naples.
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#12 Postby Dan » Fri Aug 13, 2004 10:20 am

Brent wrote:I hold a lot of respect for the NHC, but two things disturb me about the 11am advisory:

No upgrade. Winds were more than sufficent for a Category Three.

and lastly, no hurricane WARNING for Northeast Florida/Georgia. They now have a watch from Flagler Beach to GA/SC border BUT hurricane force winds are likely within 18 hours.

:roll:


I think the reason why they don't have a Hurricane Warning for the NE Florida coast is because Charley may very well stay just inland and as a result weaken some. The National Weather Service offices in Notheast Florida should have Inland Hurricane Warnings for that area, that would be the more appropiate warning for that area.
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Derek Ortt

#13 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 13, 2004 10:20 am

we're using 12Z data for 15Z? Something is WRONG here
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#14 Postby Stormcenter » Fri Aug 13, 2004 10:20 am

Who are you guys to question the NHC these guys are the Pros (insert sarcasm).
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even stronger?

#15 Postby frederic79 » Fri Aug 13, 2004 10:20 am

Isnt' the windspeed in the right quadrant/eyewall a total of the sustained wind speed PLUS the forward speed of the storm? i.e. 110 mph + 18 mph = 128 mph?
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#16 Postby cape_escape » Fri Aug 13, 2004 10:21 am

According to the news here in Cape Coral, they are saying now that the easterly jog seems to have stopped now.
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#17 Postby Pebbles » Fri Aug 13, 2004 10:22 am

I agree ...one thing they could do is put out a special notice. They MUST upgrade this in my eyes. It's just too close to strike time to delay. Too many are just saying 'we will ride this out'. If they make even only 1 family changed their minds because of a special advisory wouldn't that be worth more then following the we only put out info every 3 hours rule. Waiting till 2pm is going to be too late IMHO.
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#18 Postby Aquawind » Fri Aug 13, 2004 10:22 am

Trader Ron wrote:The Sun was out for a few minutes here in Naples.


Yeah it's been nice this AM..I have the dogs outside before things get nasty..
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Derek Ortt

#19 Postby Derek Ortt » Fri Aug 13, 2004 10:23 am

here is the 11 a.m. nwhhc update on the storm

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl032004.html

I have fully comitted to a cat 3 major hurricane as that is what the data suggests it is (and I am probably low, since FL winds at 12Z were about 102KT and dropsonde showed 95, the winds may well be closer to 110-115
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#20 Postby Anonymous » Fri Aug 13, 2004 10:25 am

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... -loop.html

The eye has tightened significantly over these last few frames, with deep convection surrounding it completely. Could Charley be deepening?
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