Charley Advisories

[DoctorHurricane2003]

.1 (7 miles) is barely anything to jump up and down about.

My guess is that it was just a wobble.

[cebers01]

Watchin' ya like a hawk Mark! Doing a good job on WBTV and WBT... Keeping an eye on this track and where he goes next...

NC not needing a ton more rain, and if the track bears out, you may be looking at a landfall again, back near your house!

Ever think we'd see one come this way??

Take care bud...

Curtis

[Superstorm]

I went to edit it, but computer lost contact with the site. I didn't want to post the same topic 5 times. Just post if you think no cat 3.

[Guest]

i still think this is a coast hugger. i did not buy the GFs of past few days, but I think the ETA and others are a bit far east. Bonnie has been further east than predicted by many models of days past, and I believe charley will follow suit. just one amateur forecasters opinion

[Josephine96]

If a more NE movent begins with the more northerly component.. it could be more trouble for me here..

[Air Force Met]

.1 (7 miles) is barely anything to jump up and down about.

My guess is that it was just a wobble.

Doesn't look like a wobble on radar. Matter of fact...it's moving at 013 degrees over the last 2 hours. It's 120 miles from shore (on that heading). Looks like landfall in 8-9 hours B/w Venica and Ft Myers.

[Brent]

I dont see recon going out for this anymore....

Ref: Plan of the day...

http://asp1.sbs.ohio-state.edu/text/tropical/atlantic/NOUS42.KNHC

They will be in the storm until it is inland pretty much nonstop.

[hial2]

It's 14 miles north by 7 miles east..early to tell if it's a trend,, but it IS a big deal since it's moving NE if you extrapolate..It will also be a big deal to a great number of people on the WC of FLA

[Air Force Met]

I think it goes south of Tampa now. The track has an eastward component now and IF it doesn't deviate it goes over Tampa...I think it will veer a little more right. Think B/W Ft Myers and Sarasota is the landfall area.

Just looked at a 2 hour loop and extrapolated it out. IF (IF IF IF) it doesn't change it's track...it comes inland B/W Venice and FT Myers in 8 hours or so.

[GaryOBX]

My point is that the NHC forecast position at 5PM will be ~30 miles too far west... a big difference for folks in Tampa. Then, what does that do to the future track.

NHC forecast still has Charley at 82.9 at 5PM, and that is not going to happen, IMO.

[cebers01]

Check this loop since he left the Dry Tortugas...

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wx/radar/index.html

See the Keys radar...

Doesn't he look a lot tighter than just an hour ago??? By a factor of a few miles??

[Josephine96]

This storm will still be a big deal for Central Florida too..

I am as prepared as I can be though.. Just waiting for Charley's arrival

[alicia-w]

If they're out there, they arent posting much new data....

[Brent]

It doesn't have much room to tighten.

[Thunder44]

This is from the NHC 9am advisory:

AT 9 AM EDT...1300Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 24.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.9 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES WEST OF
KEY WEST FLORIDA.

Then their position estimate at 1am:

AT 10 AM EDT....1400Z...THE EYE OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS ESTIMATED
NEAR LATITUDE 24.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 82.8 WEST OR ABOUT 75 MILES
WEST-NORTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

You see that it moved north .2 degrees and east .1 degrees so it is heading little east of due north.

[stormraiser]

2PM?

[Thunder44]

yes it does, a sign of intensification.

[stormraiser]

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/040813/ids_photos_wl/r2867632432.jpg

A photo and story about the Birthday boy visiting the Cuban Weather Center

[Thunder44]

URNT12 KNHC 131403
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 13/1403Z
B. 24 DEG 56 MIN N
82 DEG 47 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2814 M
D. 90 KT
E. 336 DEG 003 NM
F. 054 DEG 73 KT
G. 321 DEG 006 NM
H. EXTRAP 965 MB
I. 10 C/ 3041 M
J. 18 C/ 2995 M
K. 6 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C10
N. 12345/07
O. 0.1/2 NM
P. AF963 0903A CHARLEY OB 03
MAX FL WIND 73 KT NW QUAD 1400Z. SLP EXTRAP FROM DROPSONDE

[Brent]

It's strengthening.

I'm anxious to see what winds they find in the NE and E Quadrant. If the winds aren't higher yet, they should be soon.