95L Invest!

[Thunder44]

For the other wave just east of the islands

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

[HURAKAN]

Another Charley (In its first stage of development), I mean.

[Anonymous]

More invests! Still august.

[bahamaswx]

That's a definite Danielle. Not even haflway through August, and the 4th named storm this month is just down the road. Still in the dry MJO phase too.

[abajan]

Looks like my last post was bang on target! (This rarely happens.)

And, according to the latest TWO, 94L may become a TD later today:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml?text



We've not even reached mid-August yet! Looks like Gray may have have to revise his predictions yet again.

[wx247]

Wow...both look pretty healthy. Not what I wanted to wake up to this morning.

[tropicsgal]

Where are 94L and 95L located?

[Derecho]

Odds are 95L, while it may have an initial track like Charley, is far more likely to go on to hit SA/Mexico, or the SW GOM, based on the models (admitted very long range.) Troughs like the Charley trough are rare in this exact position at this time.

[wx247]

94L is near the CV Islands, just west of the African coast. 95L is ESE of the islands by about 1500 miles.

[Stormsfury]

That's a definite Danielle. Not even haflway through August, and the 4th named storm this month is just down the road. Still in the dry MJO phase too.

Actually 94L will probably beat it ... the NHC will be issuing advsories starting later today ...

ABNT20 KNHC 130904
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS/TPC NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT FRI AUG 13 2004

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
CHARLEY...LOCATED ABOUT 85 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF KEY WEST FLORIDA.

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT A TROPICAL DEPRESSION APPEARS TO BE
FORMING ABOUT 240 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IF
THIS DEVELOPING TREND CONTINUES...ADVISORIES WILL BE INITIATED
LATER TODAY.

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL
WAVE LOCATED ABOUT 1275 MILES EAST OF THE WINDWARD ISLANDS HAVE
BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED. THIS SYSTEM HAS SOME POTENTIAL
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS IT MOVES WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
SATURDAY.

FORECASTER AVILA

[Stormsfury]

Odds are 95L, while it may have an initial track like Charley, is far more likely to go on to hit SA/Mexico, or the SW GOM, based on the models (admitted very long range.) Troughs like the Charley trough are rare in this exact position at this time.

Agreed ... the ensemble members are calling for the trough to lift out

[Stormsfury]

Where are 94L and 95L located?

95L is located about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles/Leeward Islands), while 94L just came off the coast of Africa about 18 hours ago or so ...

[Guest]

I think 94L will be just like Isabelle or Fabian, Isabelle wasa a very quick developer and so was Fabian. The only difference is that Fabian hit Bermuda and Isabelle hit the Mid-Atlantic. I think this one will become our next major. Even if it doesn't become major however, have we ever had the first two hurricanes become major before?

[Fego]

NWS in San Juan, Puerto Rico says:
"The local weather is contingent on organizing tropical wave along 41 west this morning. this wave looking better with time ... and global models suggest there is potential for tropical development
with this system during the several days. latest gfs moves a high amplitude surface trough across the local area early tuesday ... with a similar low level presentation as was forecast for t. d. two which
later became bonnie.

[GalvestonDuck]

Darn it! My favorite hurricane tracking pen is running out of ink!

Slow down!