Hurricane Charley impact at 11 PM EDT

[WXBUFFJIM]

Hurricane Charley has strengthened quite rapidly during the day today as it continues to approach western Cuba tonight and is projected to make landfall along the west coast of Florida later in the day on Friday. At 11 PM EDT, a hurricane warning has been extended northward along the west Florida coast from East Cape Sable northward to the mouth of the Suwannee River. A hurricane warning is in effect for the Florida keys from the Dry Tortugas to the Seven Mile Bridge and for the following provinces of western Cuba...Pinar Del Rio, la Hababa, Ciudad de la Hababa, Matanzas, and the Isle Of Youth. A hurricane warning means the hurricane conditions are expected within 24 hours or less.

A tropical storm warning is in effect for the Florida Keys from Seven Mile Bridge to Ocean Reef and along the South Florida Mainland from Ocean Reef to East Cape Sable including Florida Bay. A tropical storm warning is also in effect for Lake Okeechobee. At 11 PM EDT, a tropical storm watch has been extended southward along Florida's east coast from Jupiter Inlet to Ocean reef and northward for the Georgia and South Carolina up to South Santee River. As of 11 PM EDT, a tropical storm watch is in effect from Ocean Reef, Florida northward to South Santee River, South Carolina.

At 11 PM EDT, the center of hurricane Charley was located near latitude 22.2 north, longitude 82.4 west or between the Isle of Youth and the Cuban Mainland 55 miles south of Havana, Cuba. Charley is moving towards the north northwest at near 14 mph and this motion is expected to continue with a turn toward the north later tonite into Friday morning. This will bring the center of Charley close to Havana in a few hours before reaching the southeastern Gulf Of Mexico and head towards the west coast of Florida later Friday.

Maximum sustained winds remains near 105 mph with higher gusts. This makes Charley a category 2 hurricane on the Saffir Simpson Hurricane Scale. Strengthening is forecast during the next 18-24 hours and Charley is forecast to become a major Category 3 hurricane prior to landfall along the Florida west coast. This could mean the first major U.S. hurricane strike in the 21st century. The last major hurricane to strike the United States was Hurricane Bret back on August 22nd, 1999. Minimum central pressure is 975 mb or 28.79 inches. Recon hurricane hunter aircraft have rested for the night and will be back out early in the morning on Friday as Charley reemerges back out over the southeastern Gulf Of Mexico.

Storm surge flooding of 10-15 feet are likely along the southern coastline of Cuba along and to the right of where Charley makes landfall. Storm surge flooding of 10-14 feet with some places up to 17 feet are possible along the west coast of Florida along and to the south and east from where the center makes landfall. This could mean devastating storm surge flooding along the coastal zone. Hurricane Charley is forecast to be a category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds with gusts to 145 mph around the time of landfall along the west coast of Florida. The projected path most likely takes this system between Cedar Key and Fort Myers. The cone of uncertainity is larger with this system relative to landfall because this system is more paralleling the west coast of Florida. This makes predicting the actual landfall more difficult than say if this system were to approach the coast at a 90 degree perpendicular angle. Some examples of a perpendicular landfalling hurricane include such hurricanes as Hugo and Andrew. Rainfall amounts of 6-10 inches with locally higher amounts are expected in this region.

Isolated tornadoes are likely to occur along and to the northeast of the projected track of Hurricane Charley. The friction of the land lowers wind speed while winds a couple of thousand feet on up are much stronger since they don't deal with the land friction. That difference in wind speed and direction with height is what results in these tornadoes, especially on the outer feter bans on the northeast side of the circulation. A tornado warning was in effect earlier this evening for Monroe County, Florida near the 7 mile bridge. A tornado watch is in effect throughout the overnight tonight for the Miami, Fort Myers, and Key West vicinity meaning conditions are favorable for severe squalls, which can spin up tornadoes.

This dangerous hurricane will continue to be monitored throughout the overnight.

Jim

[WXBUFFJIM]

Just got a new fix from the hurricane hunters. Eye is more symmetric. Long range radar from Key West shows that very same idea. Also minimum central pressure is down to 973 mb or 28.73 inches.

Jim

[Mattie]

GLAD TO SEE YOU BACK WXBUFFJIM!!!!!!!!!!!