Charley in Central NC

[Guest]

Need a prediction. What are your thoughts on Charley's path through NC (if there's a path through NC at all...).

BTW, flash flood warnings and many tornado warnings this afternoon around central NC.

[Guest]

Are you all thinking somewhere between the GFS and BAM? What about strength...is a strong TS possible?

[Guest]

2100 UTC 8/12/2004 HURRICANE CHARLEY FORECAST #9

This is an independent product

There may not be graphics with this forecast. If the graphics do not say forecast #9, please disregard them

The recon reports are scary. Charley has intensified into a strong category 2 hurricane. This is based upon 105KT at 700mb. With the upper outflow patter looking better, the initial intensity is being set at 95KT for this update, assuming some additional intensification has occurred. The new intensity forecast now shows a 110KT hurricane making landfall on the west coast of Florida with weakening to 70KT over the Peninsula.

Latest track guidance is ever so slightly to the left and continues the trend of a slower trip up the coast. Therefore, the 72 hour position will be a 1 degree adjustment to the west. Recent satellite imagery shows that the NNW turn has begun; thus giving confidence in the previous forecast track. Only a small northward adjustment was made in the landfall zone, to reflect the latest guidance. I am not entirely convinced that this will be reality as WV imagery shows the trough digging into the GOM, and this should provide a SW steering flow, forcing the hurricane quickly to the NE.

Assuming that Charley does emerge into the Atlantic, there is some chance at regeneration via baroclinic sources as is suggested by some guidance.

Initial (1800 UTC): 20.5N 81.6W 95KT
12 Hour: 23.0N 82.5W 105KT (across Cuba)
24 Hour: 26.0N 82.7W 110KT (approaching Florida)
36 Hour: 30.5N 81.2W 70KT (near the East Coast of Florida)
48 Hour: 35.5N 78.2W 60KT (inland)
72 Hour: 44.0N 71.0W 35KT (New England, extra-tropical)

Raleigh is at 36N79W? 60KT Winds?

[wlfpack81]

Hey CLTRDU I went to school at NC State (in Meteorology of course) from 99-Dec03. Love the area (and my Wolfpack) but miss it now that I'm way out here in Norman, OK

Seems like if that latest track held true Raleigh would be roughly 65 miles or so to the northwest of the the center of Charley at that time. Sine this storm would be moving ne-ly and probably at a good pace the worst conditions would still be to the east given the addition of forward momentum. But the Raleigh/Wake Co. area would still get a good dose of rain and some strong winds. If this latest track (or something similar to it) verifies looks like eastern NC (especially areas just to the east along I-95) would be in for some nasty weather as well as my hometown area of Hampton Roads, VA.

[Guest]

Gosh, I'm envious! I graduated in '99 with an MA in landscape architecture from the College of Design! Go 'PACK!

The situation here this summer reminds us a lot of 1996 and 1999...and frankly, its as if the worst of both years were combined in 2004. I'm wondering if RAL will get even sustained TS winds from Charley b/c of the ground saturation...it didn't take much during Fran.

Also, on another note...is there a correlation between big snowstorms in the winters preceding, or just following hurricanes in the Carolinas? Since 1989 and Hugo that appears to be the case. There may be nothing to it, and it's certainly not germane to this forum, but nevertheless, it's a observation.

Looking forward to reading more about your analysis...

BTW, Greg Fishel on WRAL s as cautious as ever...

[wlfpack81]

Haha good old Greg Fishel. Some may give him a hard time but he really knows his stuff and is a good guy (had the chance to meet him once).

As far as the snowstorm/hurricane correlation I'm honestly not sure about that. Maybe someone here on the board who knows more about climatology than I can could fill us both in.

As far as the ground saturation issue, that has worried me. I know that Cent/Eastern NC and Se-VA have gotten a lot of rain this summer and with Bonnie saturating the area again to today I'm worried that 50-55mph winds with higher gusts could be enough to down trees that otherwise wouldn't go down. I know how it was when we lost power for a few days after the big ice storm of Dec 02 and it would not be good if Cent/East NC and Se VA had another round of massive outages.

[Guest]

Wolf,

Are you thinking 50 - 55 kts winds are possible in Wake Co.?

Greg certainly seems like a nice guy but the past couple of "events" here in the Triangle he's erred on the side of caution and we've been slapped hard mostly unprepared. Not sure of who to watch so I've taken up pouring through WX sites and teaching myself about models. I WISH NCSU taught an intro course on WX for dummies like me!

In any case, please share your thoughts on Charley with me as you have them either here or via email at hjohnnmike@aol.com

Regards,

Mike

[wlfpack81]

Based on this latest current forecast (which will change probably) I'd say that if 48hrs from now the storm has winds of 60kts near the center that 35-45kts aren't out of the question with Ralegh/Wake Co. Since Raleigh would be nw of the storm they wouldn't have to worry about adding on the forward motion of the storm along with the winds (eastern NC would deal with that). B/c you'd be on the nw side of the storm you'd actually would have to subtract that forward motion from the max winds. I came up with that 35-45kt range from 60kts minus the 18-20kt (possible movement speeds) ne-ward movement in addition to Raleigh being roughly 65 miles or so from the center (again if this track verifies).

However, as a disclaimer I've only been working professionally in this field since May 04 when I got a job with a company here in Norman. Though I'm confident with my abilities to this point I also realize that a lot of what you learn comes from actually being on the job and it's still a good idea to take what the NHC and Greg Fishel have to say since they've been pros at this for many more years than I have. I still have a lot to learn as time goes on and I'll admit I'm not a tropical expert like those at the NHC and some others on this board whose degree criteria may have focused specifically on tropical meteorology. However, I don't mind sharing my opinons/thoughts on this board as others have done.

[Guest]

Thanks Wolf, and good luck with your new job! Still, 35 - 45 Kts (sustained?) = 40 - 55 MPH sustained in Raleigh. Have you seen Millenniumweather.com? He's got Charley coming up over GSO.

What do you think?

[Guest]

Great forecast Kid.... well reasoned.

Based on this latest current forecast (which will change probably) I'd say that if 48hrs from now the storm has winds of 60kts near the center that 35-45kts aren't out of the question with Ralegh/Wake Co. Since Raleigh would be nw of the storm they wouldn't have to worry about adding on the forward motion of the storm along with the winds (eastern NC would deal with that). B/c you'd be on the nw side of the storm you'd actually would have to subtract that forward motion from the max winds. I came up with that 35-45kt range from 60kts minus the 18-20kt (possible movement speeds) ne-ward movement in addition to Raleigh being roughly 65 miles or so from the center (again if this track verifies).

However, as a disclaimer I've only been working professionally in this field since May 04 when I got a job with a company here in Norman. Though I'm confident with my abilities to this point I also realize that a lot of what you learn comes from actually being on the job and it's still a good idea to take what the NHC and Greg Fishel have to say since they've been pros at this for many more years than I have. I still have a lot to learn as time goes on and I'll admit I'm not a tropical expert like those at the NHC and some others on this board whose degree criteria may have focused specifically on tropical meteorology. However, I don't mind sharing my opinons/thoughts on this board as others have done.

[wlfpack81]

Actually I failed to mention that the winds will also depend on the symetry of the storm. Normally the winds are found within the squalls around the storm. If most of the storms are located off to the east then you won't get much wind, but if a few squalls were to pass through Raleigh at this time then that's when the winds would be experienced. So with that in mind 45kts could be a bit high but 30-40kts still sound reasonable. Maybe more like sustained around 30-35kts w/higher gusts.

As far as track predictions I generally agree with what the models are showing so far with a ne-ward track through cent/eastern, nc. The trough heading in from the east is definitely in place so a ne-ward turn is going to happen. It appears based on 0043z surface data that the surface front is already over or just slighty east of gso so I'm thinking that will act as a barrier or sorts and won't allow the storm to make it that far westerward.

Would love to have others chime in with their opinions on this as well.

[wlfpack81]

Thanks DT that means a lot!!! I've lurked on this board for a while now and have read your very well written and thought out forecasts. So it means a lot when someone like you gives me a compliment.

BTW I know the Richmond, VA area well to as my dad works at the VA hospital there (drives from Hampton to Richmond and back 5 days a week ).

[Three Blind Mice]

If Charley moves offshore at Savannah and comes back at M. Beach what do you think the maximum wind speeds could be??? I know not likely but Bamm and the other models did come east tonight. After watching Alex we are all alittle edgy around the barrier islands of NC. Thanks guys...

[Guest]

I can see that...up through FL then hugging the coast and over far eastern NC...over ILM, OBX...then out-to-sea...bye-bye Charley.

Charley-related WX in Raleigh...mostly cloudy with occassional showers. Cooler and dry as he heads out to sea.

[Guest]

right now im guessing winds of about 45 mph in the DC area, but what do you guys think?

[wlfpack81]

Yea a farther e-ward track would still make things erie for e-ern NC but the Piedmont area would fair a lot better. A few miles to the east could make a world of difference a la Floyd. Raleigh didn't get much out of that storm but go just east of I-95 and it was devastating in terms of flooding. Had that storm stuck to earlier tracks which brought it right over Raleigh Wake Co. would've experienced severe flooding most likely.

[Guest]

right now im guessing winds of about 45 mph in the DC area, but what do you guys think?

In a thunderstorm. Guessing that Charley is off the coast of MD/VA; DC, like RDU is left with mostly cloudy and showers.

[Guest]

Predictions this morning?