Hurricane Local Statement from Tampa-Horrifying

[Brent]

I cannot remember a more strongly-worded NWS statement:



BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
HURRICANE CHARLEY LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
538 PM EDT THU AUG 12 2004

...INTENSIFYING HURRICANE CHARLEY MAY BE A DANGEROUS THREAT TO THE
SUNCOAST FRIDAY...
...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF BAYPORT...

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN
WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA:

CHARLOTTE
DE SOTO
HERNANDO
HILLSBOROUGH
LEE
MANATEE
PASCO
PINELLAS
SARASOTA

INCLUDING...
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO BAYPORT...CHARLOTTE HARBOR
AND TAMPA BAY.


A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS IN WEST
CENTRAL FLORIDA:

CITRUS
LEVY

INCLUDING...
THE COASTAL WATERS FROM BAYPORT TO THE MOUTH OF THE SUWANEE RIVER.


AN INLAND HURRICANE WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING
LOCATIONS IN WEST CENTRAL FLORIDA:

HARDEE
HIGHLANDS
POLK
SUMTER

...STORM LOCATION...
AT 5 PM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CHARLEY WAS LOCATED NEAR 21.2
NORTH...81.9 WEST...OR ABOUT 465 MILES SOUTH OF TAMPA. CHARLEY WAS
MOVING TO THE NORTH NORTHWEST AT 18 MPH...AND IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 105 MPH...AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
EXPECTED AS THE STORM MOVES OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN AND INTO THE GULF.
CHARLEY COULD BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR FRIDAY.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS 980 MB...28.94 INCHES.

...STORM SURGE FLOOD AND STORM TIDE IMPACTS...
WITH CHARLEY EXPECTED TO INTENSIFY...THEN ACCELERATE...ALONG THE
SUNCOAST...THE THREAT OF A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING STORM SURGE IN THE
STORM'S SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE IS GREAT. CURRENT INDICATIONS SUGGEST
THE HIGHEST SURGE WILL OCCUR FROM THE COUNTIES NEAR TAMPA BAY SOUTH
TO LEE COUNTY. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK...SPEED...AND INTENSITY
SUGGEST STORM SURGES IN SOME AREAS EQUALING OR EXCEEDING THOSE
EXPERIENCED IN HURRICANE DONNA IN 1960 AND THE 1944 HURRICANE EACH OF
WHICH MADE LANDFALL NORTH OF FORT MYERS...OR MORE LIKELY THE 1921
HURRICANE WHICH MADE LANDFALL IN NORTHERN PINELLAS COUNTY.
A STORM SURGE OF 10 TO 13 FEET IS POSSIBLE TO SOUTH OF WHERE CHARLEY
MAKES LANDFALL.


...WIND IMPACTS...
CHARLEY IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY AND COULD BECOME A CATEGORY THREE
HURRICANE AS IT APPROACHES THE SUNCOAST ON FRIDAY...WITH WINDS IN THE
INNER EYEWALL PERHAPS AT LEAST 130 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
HOWEVER...NO MATTER WHERE THE CENTER CROSSES...CURRENT FORECAST DATA
SUGGEST TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF AT LEAST 40 MPH WILL AFFECT ALL
AREAS OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA BETWEEN FRIDAY
EARLY SATURDAY.

...VERY DANGEROUS WINDS WILL PRODUCE WIDESPREAD DAMAGE...
...DESTRUCTION OF MOBILE HOMES NEAR THE CENTER OF THE STORM IS
POSSIBLE...

...STRUCTURAL DAMAGE...
THE MAJORITY OF MOBILE HOMES WILL BE SEVERELY DAMAGED NEAR WHERE THE
STORM MAKES LANDFALL. HOUSES OF POOR TO AVERAGE CONSTRUCTION WILL
HAVE SIGNIFICANT DAMAGE...INCLUDING PARTIAL WALL COLLAPSE AND ROOFS
BEING LIFTED OFF. MANY WILL BE UNINHABITABLE. WELL CONSTRUCTED HOUSES
WILL INCUR MINOR DAMAGE TO SHINGLES...SIDING...GUTTERS...AS WELL AS
BLOWN OUT WINDOWS.

PARTIAL ROOF FAILURE IS EXPECTED AT INDUSTRIAL PARKS...ESPECIALLY TO
THOSE BUILDINGS WITH LIGHT WEIGHT STEEL AND ALUMINUM COVERINGS. OLDER
LOW RISING APARTMENT ROOFS MAY ALSO BE TORN OFF...AS WELL AS
RECEIVING SIDING AND SHINGLE DAMAGE. MUCH OF THE GLASS IN HIGH RISE
OFFICE BUILDINGS WILL BE BLOWN OUT. AIRBORNE DEBRIS WILL CAUSE
DAMAGE...INJURY...AND POSSIBLE FATALITIES.

...NATURAL DAMAGE...
ALL TREES WITH ROTTING BASES WILL BECOME UPROOTED OR SNAP. NEARLY ALL
LARGE BRANCHES WILL SNAP...AND MAJOR DAMAGE IS CAN BE EXPECTED TO
CITRUS GROVES...INCLUDING NUMEROUS UPROOTED TREES...MOST COMMON WHERE
THE GROUND IS SATURATED.

THE NEXT HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT FROM THE TAMPA BAY AREA FORECAST
OFFICE WILL BE ISSUED AROUND 9PM EDT.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO FOR FURTHER INFORMATION ON THIS
DANGEROUS FLOOD. HEED ALL EVACUATION ORDERS FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT OR
MILITARY PERSONNEL.

Sheesh.

[Guest]

[The Dark Knight]

Geez..... Pray for all of Florida..... Sounds like it's gonna suck big time........

[HeatherAKC]

Gave me goosebumps to read the statement! I remember the point of no return during Andrew, when all you could do is pray it would veer north and it came to a point where you just knew you were doomed. I can sympathize with the Tampa area posters.

BTW, for YEARS experts have been warning the Tampa area that they are very vulnerable to HUGE amounts of damage during a hurricane (even HALF of Charlely's intensity). Officals should have made better evacuation plans! People get complacent, it's the nature of the beast, but it seems to me that the Tampa area could face a really big problem when they have thousands of vehicles stranded on the highways! Make all the roads OUT of the Tampa area! It's not rocket science!

[Sean in New Orleans]

This is from the NWS--I hope everyone takes every word of the statement literally. This storm isn't one of those storms that's exciting and something to anticipate. This is a dangerous situation and I sincerely hope everyone has taken the proper precautions to protect their own lives and property.

[southerngale]

Oh my!! I pray none of you try to ride that out!

[The Dark Knight]

Listen to all Emergency officials... They know what their talking about...

[opera ghost]

This is so not good. So unbelievably not good.

[tracyz]

I pray for all of my west coast friends. Be safe. I hope a miracle happens and Charley somehow misses everyone.

[weatherluvr]

That was the strongest wording I've ever seen in any official weather discussion.

[Rainband]

I pray for all of my west coast friends. Be safe. I hope a miracle happens and Charley somehow misses everyone.

Me too, thanks

[soonertwister]

From what I've read here tonight a lot of people are in denial of what they may be facing tomorrow.

This is a very pessimistic statement, but I think there could be a large number of fatalities with this storm. There is just too much apathy out there, and people are treating this as though it's going to be a four hour period of strong winds and gone. That is denial.

I'm glad they put out a strongly worded statement. I would have been even more strident in my caution, because I've already seen that there will be significant numbers of people who are planning on sticking this one out in prime storm surge areas.

Those who think that is brave must not be aware that 9 out of 10 hurricane deaths are from surge, and that of all the places in the United States, the southern and central gulf coast of Florida is perhaps the single most vulnerable place for catastrophic surge flooding to occur.

It's been said that the people in hurricane zones need a good waking up to the dangers of hurricanes because we've been so lucky for so long. Even Andrew is viewed as sort of a freak event, and for as bad as he was, he didn't kill a huge number of people. The reason for that? The SE coast of Florida isn't very prone to surge flooding, due to a sharply rising continental mass from a deep trench just a short distance off the coast. That's maybe the only reason that there weren't hundreds or thousands killed in that storm.

[Pebbles]

That is truely nerve wracking!! I hope people read that and it makes them reconsider and Get outta dodge!

[Lowpressure]

They are being very clear about the reality of the situation. I was in Frederick in 79, I have seen 135mph damage, they described it well in this text.
If you are told to leave, do so!!

[goodlife]

Do any of you long timers know about how many people here on these boards will be affected by this storm?

[Guest]

you know, weak hurricanes are fun. the fun range is depression to 80 mph. After that it gets just plain scary. But this is to be expected however, as all of the extensive development of coastal areas has put these people at risk. Remember, it is in a way our fault that we sustain all of these casualties. The benefits outweigh the risks, oceanfront property vs. hurricanes. Hopefully everyone has evacuated, and if you haven't, you should probably stay put or go to the nearest highest ground. The highways are bound to be congested and you will get stuck and have to ride out the storm in a car. Looking at graphics, residents of Pinellas county should go to the middle of the St.Petersburg area as that looks like the only area above the surge level at this time. The peninsula will turn into an island. The Tampa Bay peninsula should also be under water. Seek higher ground immediatly, before its too late. Hopefully this one will pass by.

[frankthetank]

If you haven't heard, Rananim is doing a number on CHina, this is probably a sign of things to come.....good luck if your riding Charley out....

http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/5684782/

[Guest]

http://gulfsci.usgs.gov/maps/dem/images/dem1.jpg there is the address of the page, if your home isn't in the yellow or red elevations, get to those areas!

[medic8ed]

Well, I'm just outside the evac zones in Bradenton (south end of the Sunshine
Skyway), and we're riding the thing out. I'm pretty nervous, seriously.
Surprisingly, even though there's a level 3 evacuation going on, things seem
very calm around here. I just ran out for a coupla bags of ice, and saw no
boarded windows (I haven't boarded up either, waited too late), no heavy
traffic on evacuation route, etc.

I dunno, we're either severly screwed (I hate the wind estimates), or we're
not. It's past the point of no return already, pretty much.

[southerngale]

Do any of you long timers know about how many people here on these boards will be affected by this storm?

Go here and you can see some of the names. However, there are many more who never put in their locations or have joined since this was last updated.

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?t=36710