Models

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
wilmington-nc
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 12
Joined: Mon Aug 09, 2004 1:33 pm
Location: Wilmington, NC

Models

#1 Postby wilmington-nc » Thu Aug 12, 2004 7:28 pm

Check out the 8PM BAMM


Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Weatherboy1
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1190
Age: 50
Joined: Mon Jul 05, 2004 1:50 pm
Location: Jupiter/Sarasota, FL

18Z models slightly more E?

#2 Postby Weatherboy1 » Thu Aug 12, 2004 7:30 pm

The very latest tropical models look to have converged more to the E -- as opposed to the Panhandle, they almost all are suggesting a path over the Tampa Bay area or slightly south. I have to tell you -- IF this thing gets to Cat 3 status, things are going to be REAL ugly with this storm. You're possibly talking about several hundred million dollars worth of damage, etc. Good luck west coasters!
0 likes   
Top
Guest

#3 Postby Guest » Thu Aug 12, 2004 7:31 pm

Means ILM gets nailed by Part 2?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Stormsfury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10549
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

#4 Postby Stormsfury » Thu Aug 12, 2004 7:32 pm

I don't like the BAMM depiction ...

ON latest WV imagery, I'm already seeing signs that the ULL that has pulled away from Charley's influence is influencing a portion of the trough in the Central GOM ... with diffluence aloft ... another strong trough is digging down and will pull Charley to the N and eventually NNE, but I think that the recurvature will occur closer to the clustering of that model map's GFDL, NOGAPS, and GFS run depiction ...
0 likes   
Top
Steve H.
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2163
Joined: Sat Oct 19, 2002 9:06 am
Location: Palm Bay, Florida

#5 Postby Steve H. » Thu Aug 12, 2004 7:33 pm

I have no idea how the BAMM does in the 36 hours range. But if it followed that track I'd see hurricane force gusts in Melbourne if he's a CAtIII at landfall.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
The Dark Knight
Category 3
Category 3
Posts: 800
Joined: Fri Jun 18, 2004 11:18 am
Location: Mashpee, Cape Cod, MA
Contact:
Contact The Dark Knight

#6 Postby The Dark Knight » Thu Aug 12, 2004 7:33 pm

I hope that Charley takes the BAM track.... Cape Cod is long overdue...LOL.. for a storm. The last big one that we had was T.S. Floyd...
0 likes   
Top
Steve H.
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2163
Joined: Sat Oct 19, 2002 9:06 am
Location: Palm Bay, Florida

#7 Postby Steve H. » Thu Aug 12, 2004 7:38 pm

Charley actually has cloud tops that have warmed significantly. Think he will pick up when he passes Cuba.
0 likes   
Top
Winnipesaukee
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 190
Joined: Thu Dec 04, 2003 10:00 pm

#8 Postby Winnipesaukee » Thu Aug 12, 2004 7:40 pm

I (heart) BAMM.

Even more than Emeril.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Three Blind Mice
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 202
Joined: Thu Jul 29, 2004 9:28 am
Location: Wrightsville Beach, NC

#9 Postby Three Blind Mice » Thu Aug 12, 2004 7:41 pm

appears Bonnie went east of models and Charley may as well. Just hope there is no chance of getting over water like the Bam shows. We have had tremendous rains last 2 hours. Any winds over 60 and we will have problems here in ILM.
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: Google [Bot] and 352 guests