Vortex......Eye Elongated and Open.

[Pebbles]

*doh* eye wall replacement..should of considered that earlier...was wondering why the radar didn't look as showey as was expecting. Know it's not a for sure..but sure is a good possibility!

[NJCane]

Notice it also says a hurricane characterized by a tight eye which this storm has. The winds are approaching Cat 3 and so an eyewall replacement can definetly occur. As for how to understand if that is happening: The cloud tops will warm and the convection will look less impressive. The eye may disappear for a while and then usually there is a period of reorganization with a blossoming of thunderstorms and cooling of cloud tops and the eye reforms. You can have a pretty good idea if this is happening if the convection is suddenly looking less impressive in a powerful storm when the environmental conditions appear all favorable. The only other real possibility is the storm is beginning to feel some effects of land.

[OtherHD]

Or maybe Dyn-O-Storm has made a return...

[Pebbles]

Notice it also says a hurricane characterized by a tight eye which this storm has. The winds are approaching Cat 3 and so an eyewall replacement can definetly occur. As for how to understand if that is happening: The cloud tops will warm and the convection will look less impressive. The eye may disappear for a while and then usually there is a period of reorganization with a blossoming of thunderstorms and cooling of cloud tops and the eye reforms. You can have a pretty good idea if this is happening if the convection is suddenly looking less impressive in a powerful storm when the environmental conditions appear all favorable. The only other real possibility is the storm is beginning to feel some effects of land.

Great explaination!! Thanks for explaining how to recognize this in a way all can understand.

[Mattie]

ok OtherHD - that was 2002 and 2003 topic! <grin> Don't EVEN get that one going here. . . LOL

(I'm sure someone saved them though and it will no doubt appear if Charley fades)

[tallywx]

Latest radar looks like Charley gobbled up some dry air. There's not much around, so I doubt it will continue. After it crosses Cuba and/or hits the overnight convective maximum, look for re-consolidation...especially with outflow as solid as it is.

[Thunder44]

They eye being enlongated is insignificant to the future intensity and track of Charley. I hardly see this as good news for Florida.

[Brent]

Could also be due to land interaction. By a little after midnight, Charley will be past Cuba and will have a solid 12 hours to strengthen(maybe 16 hours), especially if it goes farther north.

[Weatherboy1]

I also think this was an eyewall replacement cycle. If you look at the very latest IR imagery, you can see that a tighter, distinct eye has appeared compared with the broader one earlier. That MAY signal that a new strengthening cycle is getting underway, but obviously, interaction with land will set that back. Also, the system appears to be starting its turn to the N from NNW. Not 100% sure there yet, but it looks that way.

[Pebbles]

Well sure looks like the eye is tightening up now... which means it's strengthening, no?

[Guest]

The eye is reforming. In my opinion, Charley will barely be influenced by Cuba, due to the fact that the strip of land which it will pass over is very narrow. Litle weakening if not maintaining strength will occur. After it passes Cuba, there is a window for development in which Charley will be "dressing up" for the final showdown with Florida. I think it will hit Florida with winds between 115-125 mph. Hopefully it'll come up here to Northern Virginia as a tropical storm, as the forecast has it now that still looks likely.

[Guest]

Hurricanes near sunset, can suddently strengthen and unlike most thunderstorm and convective systems, tropical systems especially hurricanes are not diurnially driven but nocturnal. Even if this storm does weaken over cuba it will have passed and tonight there could be a modest strengthening before tomorrow morning. stay tuned

[Guest]

14a advisory shows Charley maintaining winds of 105mph with strengthening expected.

[Brent]

The eye has reappeared on satellite. Could be trying to strengthen before it hits Cuba. It should only be on land for about 2-3 hours and then after that it's clearing sailing for a good 12-18 hours.

[Air Force Met]

They eye being enlongated is insignificant to the future intensity and track of Charley. I hardly see this as good news for Florida.

It's not good news. The pressure as dropped 3 mbs in 2 hours during an eyewall cycle (although this is not a classic cycle). That means once the eyewall gets its act together...the pressure will drop significantly. I expect a 965 storm by the time it hits Cuba if the cycle is completed now. If the cycle is not complete yet...we are probably looking at 972 or so.

[Anonymous]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

Look at that eye, it could probably fit inside Tampa's bay. Seems as if the cycle is finishing up.

[Stormsfury]

They eye being enlongated is insignificant to the future intensity and track of Charley. I hardly see this as good news for Florida.

It's not good news. The pressure as dropped 3 mbs in 2 hours during an eyewall cycle (although this is not a classic cycle). That means once the eyewall gets its act together...the pressure will drop significantly. I expect a 965 storm by the time it hits Cuba if the cycle is completed now. If the cycle is not complete yet...we are probably looking at 972 or so.

Actually, it's still fairly classic ... with latest vortex exhibiting a DBL eyewall structure ... looking back at archived visible satellite imagery today, there was an outflow boundary that developed west of the cyclone extending in a semicircle to the north of Charley, and about that time, the fluctuations occurred ... although, the eye (before the structure) was C20 (circular, 20 NM), the core itself seemed quite tight, and with that ULL becoming no longer a factor ... I agree, when the cycle is complete, a sudden drop in pressure before a Cuba landfall is a definite possibility ... and in fact, if the strengthening is significant enough, there may be absolutely no resultant change as it traverses Cuba ... not good news at all ...

SF

[MW98GT]

That is the most apparant the eye has been on IR all day. When it was visible on visible, it really wasnt on IR.

[Air Force Met]

SF...in a classic cycle...you have two area of peak wind (which we don't here according to the supp. vortex messages)...and you also go form a warm ir eye to a jumbled looking mess...and then the eye warms AFTER the cycle is complete. The fact that the recon is still showing a double structure...but IR shows a warming eye at the same time means it is not a classic cycle. Also in a classic cycle you get a rise in cnetral pressure and a drop in the wind field. This has not happened...so its not classic.

I think we are referring to different definitions of classic. The definition I am referring to is like an Allen eyewall cycle where you get a classic look on sat and a peak wind...followed by a mess and a rise in pressure and decline in wind speed....followed by another increase in strength. Charley has not weakened nor filled...so it can't be a "classic" cycle...because again...in a classic cycle the system weakens and pressures rise.

[Stormsfury]

SF...in a classic cycle...you have two area of peak wind (which we don't here according to the supp. vortex messages)...and you also go form a warm ir eye to a jumbled looking mess...and then the eye warms AFTER the cycle is complete. The fact that the recon is still showing a double structure...but IR shows a warming eye at the same time means it is not a classic cycle. Also in a classic cycle you get a rise in cnetral pressure and a drop in the wind field. This has not happened...so its not classic.

I think we are referring to different definitions of classic. The definition I am referring to is like an Allen eyewall cycle where you get a classic look on sat and a peak wind...followed by a mess and a rise in pressure and decline in wind speed....followed by another increase in strength. Charley has not weakened nor filled...so it can't be a "classic" cycle...because again...in a classic cycle the system weakens and pressures rise.

Ah, I see your point ...