94L Model Map - Could be a threat down the road

Hyperstorm · #1 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 4:32 pm

There really isn't much to steer this one north anytime soon, unfortunately...

#2 Postby **cycloneye** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 4:36 pm

Well the only thing that we who live in the caribbean is for now to watch the progress of the system as it tracks thru the atlantic.

bahamaswx · #3 Postby **bahamaswx** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 4:36 pm

Yep. It'll be a long trekker.

The Dark Knight · #4 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 4:37 pm

Very, very, very long trecker.....

ChaserUK · #5 Postby **ChaserUK** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 4:37 pm

so how long would it take for this, if it became Hurricane Danielle for example, would it take to get to the USA, two weeks?

Derecho · #6 Postby **Derecho** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 4:38 pm

On a lot of the global models it recurves fairly rapidly and well away from the US.

Website · #7 Postby **Brent** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 4:40 pm

ChaserUK wrote:so how long would it take for this, if it became Hurricane Danielle for example, would it take to get to the USA, two weeks?

10-14 days, maybe longer.

Hyperstorm · #8 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 4:41 pm

I DON'T even care about what the global models say at this point. The system is not yet a tropical cyclone and until so, they won't serve any good. I look at the current pattern when a system hasn't developed yet...and it tells me the system won't turn away ANYTIME soon...Probably LATE in the forecast period, but not for the next 3-5 days.

#9 Postby **wx247** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 4:41 pm

It remains something to watch...regardless of track.

bahamaswx · #10 Postby **bahamaswx** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 4:47 pm

Indeed. No chance of turning until atleast 50W.

Derecho · #11 Postby **Derecho** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 4:48 pm

Rapid development of CVs often encourages recurvature.

Many of the big US hits from CVs were storms that were able to remain weak TDs for quite some time, till they'd made it 1/2 way across.

Hyperstorm · #12 Postby **Hyperstorm** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 4:51 pm

Derecho wrote:Rapid development of CVs often encourages recurvature.

Many of the big US hits from CVs were storms that were able to remain weak TDs for quite some time, till they'd made it 1/2 way across.

Oh, yeah if you're talking about the US is true. I'm saying a threat toward the islands potentially, not for the US. That would be anyway 2 weeks away at least and it will be IMPOSSIBLE to predict the pattern this early.

ChaserUK · #13 Postby **ChaserUK** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 4:51 pm

thanks Brent - I need to know these things!

#14 Postby **Dean4Storms** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 5:13 pm

If memory serves alot of the Globals had Charley crossing the NE Carib. and riding northward out to sea early on. Nothing is written in stone yet for 94L. Fortunately we have alot of time to watch it!

#15 Postby **wlfpack81** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:25 pm

Took a look at the 00z GFS from today and it showed something around the Carribean region from 96h to 108h out (16/1200z to 20/0000z). Not sure if it's showing this wave or something else. Obviously that far out you have to take things with a grain of salt but interesting none the less:

http://www.rap.ucar.edu/weather/model/displayMod.php?var=gfs_sfc_mslp&hours=hr084hr096hr108hr120hr132hr144hr156hr168hr180

94L Model Map - Could be a threat down the road

94L Model Map - Could be a threat down the road

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