uh oh let the model maddness begin. NHC's GFDL takes Charley

[Wnghs2007]

Into the big bend area of Florida. and then off towards augusta


http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropi ... model.html





Thoughts......DT????????? Any one.

[Josephine96]

My thoughts are still that this is a Central Florida event.. I'm not -removed- either believe me..

But the Tampa Bay area and the rest of Central Florida are the most likely target

[Air Force Met]

I think the GFDL is too far west. I believe this is going 30 miles either side of Tampa.

[Josephine96]

AFM.. I asked this to several others earlier.. But do you think with this becoming a Cat 3 and maybe god for bid a Cat 4..

Do you think I'll see winds {gusted or sustained} over 100? I will be at the right side of the storm.. and the eye may not pass over me.. but I thought I'd ask

[Josephine96]

sorry for the double post lol

[CaptinCrunch]

GFS and BAM are right on target with Charley

[bahamaswx]

I think the GFDL is too far west. I believe this is going 30 miles either side of Tampa.

Agreed.

[Guest]

This is where we are headed for trouble folks.... TPC is going to kiss GFDL fanny rather than Use ther synoptic skills.

FOLKS b/c of the shape of this trough over the eastern US and ESPECIALLY on the east coast it is meteorologically almost IMPOSSIBLE for Charely to go THAT far Due N and NOT bend to the right... as th 12z GFDL shows

36 hrs ago if you recall the EXTENDED GFDL Past 60 hrs had it over SE Fl then to SC...

Now it is this nonsense. and once again it is the GFDL past 60 hrs...

Given the complex natiue of the synoptic pattern we are going to be seeing over the next 72 hrs the GFDL is the last model one should use... past 60 hrs.,..

Its history is wel... in a word ...WRETCHED for TC North of 28- 30 N latitude

[Wnghs2007]

I think the GFDL is too far west. I believe this is going 30 miles either side of Tampa.

Well yesterday it was the farthest east outlier. Now it is the middle. I say it has a pretty good track seeing Charley is heading 315 right now. Beautiful. and Definatley Looking Cat 3 ish.

[newt3]

we(Panhandle/big bend) don't want it!!

[Air Force Met]

AFM.. I asked this to several others earlier.. But do you think with this becoming a Cat 3 and maybe god for bid a Cat 4..

Do you think I'll see winds {gusted or sustained} over 100? I will be at the right side of the storm.. and the eye may not pass over me.. but I thought I'd ask

I predicted a strong Cat 3 sometime yesterday morning...so I am going to stick with it. Winds to 125 at landfall.

ALso...as DT points out...the GFDL is an impossible solution given the flow over the GOM. The upper flow over the ne GOM during that time will be out of the SW at about 50 kts. Which means in order for the GFDL to verify...it would have to plow through it and not be steered by it...which is a meteorological impossibility.

THe GFDL solution CAN'T happen...short of some crazy thing happening with the trough...like an upper low breaking off of it and digging southwest of the storm and changing the flow....and that isn't going to happen.

[N2Storms]

Yeah, for my 2 cents worth I cannot see any way that Charley would make it that far north either seeing how it shunted Bonnie ENE so quickly. I'll really be surprised to see it make landfall anywhere North of Tampa. I'm with Newt, the Panhandle does not want any part of Charley. My thoughts and prayers are with those who lie in his path. Take care and by all means do not take Charley lightly, now is the time to complete your preparations to safe guard life and property.

[N2Storms]

Yeah, for my 2 cents worth I cannot see any way that Charley would make it that far north either seeing how it shunted Bonnie ENE so quickly. I'll really be surprised to see it make landfall anywhere North of Tampa. I'm with Newt, the Panhandle does not want any part of Charley. My thoughts and prayers are with those who lie in his path. Take care and by all means do not take Charley lightly, now is the time to complete your preparations to safe guard life and property.

[Guest]

well stated thank you...

AFM.. I asked this to several others earlier.. But do you think with this becoming a Cat 3 and maybe god for bid a Cat 4..

Do you think I'll see winds {gusted or sustained} over 100? I will be at the right side of the storm.. and the eye may not pass over me.. but I thought I'd ask

I predicted a strong Cat 3 sometime yesterday morning...so I am going to stick with it. Winds to 125 at landfall.

ALso...as DT points out...the GFDL is an impossible solution given the flow over the GOM. The upper flow over the ne GOM during that time will be out of the SW at about 50 kts. Which means in order for the GFDL to verify...it would have to plow through it and not be steered by it...which is a meteorological impossibility.

THe GFDL solution CAN'T happen...short of some crazy thing happening with the trough...like an upper low breaking off of it and digging southwest of the storm and changing the flow....and that isn't going to happen.

[Wnghs2007]

BYE BYE TAMPA!!!!!!!!!!!!!! my mom and baby brother are down there with my only two remaining grand parents. If this does turn they are screwed. They cant get out of Tampa, dont ask me why but they say there is no way they can leave like the roads are packed or something. They are on vacation.

[tallywx]

The ENE flow across the Big Bend is way too strong to allow Charley to get this far north. See the direction Bonnie came from, and how it couldn't even get as far north as Tallahassee. Now of course the trough will dig deeper now and back the flow around to NE and NNE, but it's nearly impossible to have the storm driven NNW in a troughing situation. I'm afraid there's no logical reason to disagree with the Tampa solution at this juncture.

[weatherluvr]

Interesting how the BAMM is now turning Charley out to sea off the VA coast. GFS looks like the most likely scenario right now IMO.

[Brent]

I think the GFDL is too far west. I believe this is going 30 miles either side of Tampa.

I agree.

[Wnghs2007]

Maybe the trough is going to get extremely deeper than first thought. LOL.

[wxcsi]

TPC is going to kiss GFDL fanny rather than Use ther synoptic skills.

Agree with just about everything you said...except the part about NHC.

Stacy Stewart is one of the best around. Like I thought, just an update of the track from earlier today.

M