NNW Movement??

#1 Postby **Blown Away** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:23 pm

Last few clips, it looks like the storm is moving NNW!

Josephine96 · #2 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:25 pm

Now if the storm does start moving NNW.. that would mean it's getting ready to make the northward and then northeastward turn right..?

#3 Postby **WeatherEmperor** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:26 pm

Im not sure but I would have to say that the overall general motion is and continues to be to the NW. Wobbles occur here and there but they eventually even out to NW. It is supposed to turn more NNW later today or tonight.

<RICKY>

The Dark Knight · #4 Postby **The Dark Knight** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:27 pm

Hmmmm......

#5 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:29 pm

Yes...its moving NNW now...which is bad news for Florida.

If it had stayed on a NW track a little longer...it would have hit the Ilse of youth and then traversed over the mountains before reenering into the GOM. It would have also spent about 8 hours over land or close to it.

Now...the eyewall will go over the narrowest part of Cuba and will spend less than 3 hours over land before reentering into the GOM.

For a storm cutting across Cuba into the GOM...this is the worstcase scenario.

chadtm80 · #6 Postby **chadtm80** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:30 pm

Looks NNW to me as well!! Not good news at ALL.. AFM do you think we will see another model shift now?

southerngale · #7 Postby **southerngale** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:31 pm

The Dark Knight wrote:Hmmmm......

You sure "hmmm" a lot! :wink:

Josephine96 · #8 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:32 pm

If it only spends about 2-3 hours over Cuba.. I hope those Cubans that live there {if any} can handle those 2-3 hours..

This is getting to be a very dangerous situation..

Windtalker · #9 Postby **Windtalker** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:33 pm

I do not think Charley is going to Tampa....I feel the trough is going to be in the gulf by the time Charley comes off cuba and will turn him more northeast/east....South Florida still BEWARE

#10 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:33 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:Im not sure but I would have to say that the overall general motion is and continues to be to the NW. Wobbles occur here and there but they eventually even out to NW. It is supposed to turn more NNW later today or tonight.

<RICKY>

Check to recon fixes. It has been veering more NNW since early this morning. Since 13z, it has gone 40 miles north and 25 miles west. The latest has it going about 20 miles north and only 10 miles west. The satellite loop confirms this. This is no wobble, this is the movement.

Guest · #11 Postby **Guest** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:34 pm

12z UKMET

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/ukmtc2.c ... =Animation

the 12z GFDL does the same thing

These 2 models this because the heights to the EAST and north of charley rebuild a LITTLE after Bonnie moves up the Front into NC and VA...

that is why the UKMET has almost due North course as does the 12z GFDL .... well 340...

again while a sharper recurve into SW FL is still possible No data shows that this afternoon

chadtm80 · #12 Postby **chadtm80** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:34 pm

I have counted 20 today alone.. lol

Guest · #13 Postby **Guest** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:34 pm

before everyone starts jumping to conclusions, you need to realize that a storm when undergoing structure changes and intensification/weakining, can wobble for 3-6 hours and then continue on it's course. this is very common?

#14 Postby **Air Force Met** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:37 pm

chadtm80 wrote:Looks NNW to me as well!! Not good news at ALL.. AFM do you think we will see another model shift now?

I'm sure some will. Others, like the GFS, have been beating this drum for a while. Yesterday's 18 z run was spot on.

Weatherboy1 · #15 Postby **Weatherboy1** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:38 pm

...looks like the 12Z GFS runs and tropical models have shifted ever so slightly to the left, too, as DT highlighted that the other models have done. Still a very close call as to where in FL this thing hits, but any shift to the left is potentially bad news for those on the receiving end of this thing as it means Charley could spend more time over very warm SE Gulf waters. Ugh. On the up side, here in SE FL it looks like the latest models show we'll be okay. Good luck to those of you who will have to deal with this thing.

ColdFront77 · #16 Postby **ColdFront77** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:47 pm

Josephine96 wrote:Now if the storm does start moving NNW.. that would mean it's getting ready to make the northward and then northeastward turn right..?

In a sense, the turn to the NNW means Charley is getting ready to make the northward turn and then northeastward turn; but it depends on what you mean by "getting ready" -- three hours, versus six plus...

The Dark Knight wrote:Hmmmm......

southerngale wrote:You sure "hmmm" a lot!

chadtm80 wrote:I have counted 20 today alone.. lol

I just literally counted 8. :lol:

Josephine96 · #17 Postby **Josephine96** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:52 pm

robag · #18 Postby **robag** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 2:02 pm

I am NOT letting my guard down in Key Largo. I have seen shifts too many times in my 18 years in the Keys. I remember in 1987 a weak hurricane named Floyd was supposed to hit Tampa Bay from a very similar position as Charley. Well, we were hit by a tornado in Key Largo and then the storm came right up route one. So, I won't relax until in passes us to the North.

NNW Movement??

NNW Movement??

I agree 100%

heights rebuilding

Who is online