This will be a disaster

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Derek Ortt

This will be a disaster

#1 Postby Derek Ortt » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:26 pm

Wish I could say something better, but this has all of the makings of a terrible disaster. Havana is about to be obliterated if it takes a direct hit and is a portion of the WC of Florida

Hede all evac orders, please


we have storm updates at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl032004.html but I justw ant to say something to anyone who will or has been using this site NOTHING WE OR ANYONE SAYS TRUMPS INFO GIVEN BY LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. Always comply with every single request made by them, or else you may place your life in danger. If you are ordered to leave, you must do so. Do not think you can ride it out. The truth is, nobody on the WC has experienced anything greater than a tropical storm. Major hurricanes are serious and failure to treat them as such will likely place your life in grave danger
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#2 Postby Stormchaser16 » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:28 pm

Havanna looks to be right on the NE side of the eyewall if the current wobble tells us anything about where it will pass......... with a warm eddy all the way to Cuba and an RIC underway........ God speed to that city
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#3 Postby Josephine96 » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:28 pm

I hate to agree with you.. but this time I do..

Too many people trying to leave Tampa/St Pete, plus a rapidly strengthening storm..

This is not looking good..
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Anonymous

#4 Postby Anonymous » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:32 pm

The storm is intensifying extremely quickly, and I am worried to see its strength when it approaches Cuba. Add that to the fact that going over Cuba wont weaken it at all (Due to the slenderness of the land area is will pass). I said 110 knots at landfall and I think it may be conservative (Unless shear magically appears).
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#5 Postby Stormchaser16 » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:34 pm

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#6 Postby Josephine96 » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:35 pm

Well.. the next 12-18 hours will determine what it's like when it reaches Florida
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#7 Postby flnative » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:36 pm

Flood zones in Tampa by Storm Cat- http://www2.sptimes.com/pdfs/hurricanem ... p-hill.pdf

Alarming!
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#8 Postby NorthGaWeather » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:36 pm

Magical shear will magically shift East.
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#9 Postby LAwxrgal » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:36 pm

:cry:

Stay safe everyone...and heed ALL warnings!
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Wake me up when November ends

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#10 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:39 pm

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#11 Postby TXGale » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:42 pm

Hi All! (my first post)

I'm afraid your right. I just moved from the St. Pete area 3 months ago. My house was right on the coast, so I'm very thankful I'm not there anymore. People in that area have become complacent because of so many past scares and nothing happening. That was always a worry to the EM folks that people would not heed the warning when a storm was really threatening. I have a feeling this time that area will not "dodge the Bullet" that's headed their way. I'm really praying people listen and get out of Pinellas County. Please TB people listen to the authorities, better to be safe then sorry!
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#12 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:56 pm

Winds up to 105 mph at 2pm EDT. Recon found 105 kts flight level winds in the Eastern quadrant.
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#13 Postby HurricaneGirl » Thu Aug 12, 2004 12:56 pm

:eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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#14 Postby Agua » Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:00 pm

I posted this in another thread, but it amplifies what Derek is saying.

I spoke with an old law school bud of mine who grew up in Tampa and after school returned there.

He did not have a CLUE about storm preparation. Had never heard of boarding up windows and laughed when I said his power would likely be out a week at a minimum.

I think he finally got a hint of the gravity of his situation when I told him very seriously that I'd be praying for him and his family. He laughed at first saying "man, you're scaring me". I told him I wasn't exaggerating and that simply trimming the limbs in his yard (his preparation) was not going to cut it.

I told him that if I were him, I'd get the hell out of there and go to the SE Fla. coast.

If his ignorance is the norm down there, and in light of the absence of direct hits in that area, it probably is, this IS going to be a disaster if the thing hits Tampa as they apparently don't have any clue as to what these storms are about.
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#15 Postby The Dark Knight » Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:10 pm

Stay safe...
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#16 Postby Stephanie » Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:18 pm

Great post Derek!

God I hope those people will wake up! :eek:
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#17 Postby Hurricanehink » Thu Aug 12, 2004 1:21 pm

Wow, I seriously hope this storm is ripped apart somehow by shear or something. We don't need a disaster like this, this early in the season. I can't imagine evacuating everyone in basically Southern Florida. Good luck everyone!
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Re: This will be a disaster

#18 Postby Stormcenter » Thu Aug 12, 2004 2:02 pm

Derek Ortt wrote:Wish I could say something better, but this has all of the makings of a terrible disaster. Havana is about to be obliterated if it takes a direct hit and is a portion of the WC of Florida

Hede all evac orders, please


we have storm updates at http://www.nwhhc.com/atl032004.html but I justw ant to say something to anyone who will or has been using this site NOTHING WE OR ANYONE SAYS TRUMPS INFO GIVEN BY LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS. Always comply with every single request made by them, or else you may place your life in danger. If you are ordered to leave, you must do so. Do not think you can ride it out. The truth is, nobody on the WC has experienced anything greater than a tropical storm. Major hurricanes are serious and failure to treat them as such will likely place your life in grave danger



For Cuba or the U.S.? When it becomes a cat. 3 or 4 then we can start using the word disaster but I think the shear may "hopefully" save the people of Florida from feeling the effects of a cat. 3 or more hurricane. I just hope those who
live in Florida that are actually "excited" about this possibility know what is coming their way. I was like them until I was in a hurricane and I changed my tune quickly. Don't tell there are not Florida people I disagree with on this board because you know there are. Good luck top the people of Florida.
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#19 Postby Skywatch_NC » Thu Aug 12, 2004 2:12 pm

I hope my cousin Shannon in Tampa has decided to take shelter w/ her sister Cherie's family in Sarasota.

Everyone in western, central and northern FL we're thinking of you and praying for you all.

Eric
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#20 Postby Squall52 » Thu Aug 12, 2004 2:16 pm

It's fine to be excited about it, as long as you plan on riding it out somewhere safe. I agree though, you can't imagine what it's like until you experience it. Can't really talk, but I've felt 70 mph extratopical storm gusts, and it's pretty intimidating when you need to really anchor yourself. And I've seen what being in a house struck by 100mph thunderstorm winds is like...scary even for a few minutes. I can't imagine hours of sustained 100 mph winds, forget stronger than that.
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