Troph digging hard... ???

[ericinmia]

What are the possibilites that these computer models aren't taking this strong of a troph into account for this time of year? It seems to have strengthened quite a bit lately. It will be interesting to see how this storm pans out.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html





On another note i find it very interesting that this storm is going to be passing within a very short distance of miami, and NOBODY has made any preparations. People are actually laughing it off...

-Eric

[jlauderdal]

What are the possibilites that these computer models aren't taking this strong of a troph into account for this time of year? It seems to have strengthened quite a bit lately. It will be interesting to see how this storm pans out.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrwv.html





On another note i find it very interesting that this storm is going to be passing within a very short distance of miami, and NOBODY has made any preparations. People are actually laughing it off...

-Eric

The center at closest approcah is currently forecast to be about 150-180 miles...that wouldn't even bring tropical storm force winds. Why would we be preparing for anything more thans qually weather? If the track changes to the right than preperations will start but you have to realize the costs involved in full scale preperations.

[ericinmia]

I wasn't trying to imply i expected "full scale" preperations. But simply buying water, and paying attention to the forecast, and possibly preparing a few things around the house...

It will be impossible for any of these people to play catchup if this thing were to change directions a little. While i have Great faith in the NHC track, i also know that sometimes they are wrong or off. Especially on a season like this one, with unprecedented factors.

I don't know much about troph's above the basic level, and interactions. The power of this troph appears to have changed dramatically in the past 24 hours, will this effect the situation any. (did it absorb bonnie? lol)

-Eric

[Weatherboy1]

Look -- I know what the models say. I'm a fairly well-educated amateur when it comes to hurricane forecasting. And I believe the NHC's forecast is accurate. BUT I'm looking at morning visible satellite loops and they appear to show cloud motion over the SW Bahamas as out of the SSE, cloud motion over FL as out of the S and cloud motion in the SE gulf as out of the SSW. It seems to me this indicates the trof is digging hard and the ridge is getting shoved E. FL is only 150 miles wide or so at Lake Okeechobee, so even a minor shift in track on this thing could bring TS-force winds to the center or east of the state. I still think the most likely course is up the west coast. But I thought I would just point this out. Am I crazy?

[ericinmia]

Look -- I know what the models say. I'm a fairly well-educated amateur when it comes to hurricane forecasting. And I believe the NHC's forecast is accurate. BUT I'm looking at morning visible satellite loops and they appear to show cloud motion over the SW Bahamas as out of the SSE, cloud motion over FL as out of the S and cloud motion in the SE gulf as out of the SSW. It seems to me this indicates the trof is digging hard and the ridge is getting shoved E. FL is only 150 miles wide or so at Lake Okeechobee, so even a minor shift in track on this thing could bring TS-force winds to the center or east of the state. I still think the most likely course is up the west coast. But I thought I would just point this out. Am I crazy?

That is also what i had noticed, and the reason for why i posted this...
Will be interesting to see in a few hours!
-Eric

[jlauderdal]

I wasn't trying to imply i expected "full scale" preperations. But simply buying water, and paying attention to the forecast, and possibly preparing a few things around the house...

It will be impossible for any of these people to play catchup if this thing were to change directions a little. While i have Great faith in the NHC track, i also know that sometimes they are wrong or off. Especially on a season like this one, with unprecedented factors.

I don't know much about troph's above the basic level, and interactions. The power of this troph appears to have changed dramatically in the past 24 hours, will this effect the situation any. (did it absorb bonnie? lol)

-Eric

Hey I am in Miami Lakes too at work. lets go to the publix on 67th and buy water..lol. To be honest people should have already had their supplies in case of any surprises. If the media started telling everyone in SE FL to start buying supplies it would only increase an already very complacement part of the country. People in SE florida are mostly clueless if they depend on local media for the facts as I have previousely pointed out in other threads. I dont think some preps are good but honestly the basic stuff youa re talking about sould already have been done.