Charley Advisories

[The Dark Knight]

most likely just a wobble....

[Blown Away]

Almost looks NNW, are my eyes playing tricks on me?

[HalloweenGale]

NW towards FLA. where there is a state of emergency

[cycloneye]

Maybe some little wobbles but basiclly moving NW 300-305 degrees.

[Thunder44]

This isn't going anywhere west of 90W.

[perk]

NEED TO WAIT FOR THE FIRST VISIBLE. IT IS NEXT TO IMPOSSIBLE TO GAUGE A STORM'S DIRECTION USING INFRARED.

[The Dark Knight]

I agree...

[Derecho]

Recon works better than any sat.

The motion was 309 degrees overnight, between the two recon flights.

[chrisnnavarre]

Maybe just a wobble...a few of the frames on visual from 11:25-12:25 UTC do look like the counter-clockwise LLC is moving due west however...

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconus.html

[The Dark Knight]

It takes Charley into, north of the Great Lakes?????...

[Dan]

By looking at satellite, I would say mainly northwest. As you know, Hurricanes doesn't always move in a straight linear fashion. Their movement can resemble a flight of stairs. For instance, one step up, another step left, which equals a northwest motion.

[The Dark Knight]

Why did they change it????

[Guest]

347
URNT12 KNHC 121154
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/1154Z
B. 19 DEG 14 MIN N
80 DEG 42 MIN W
C. 700 MB 2957 M
D. 60 KT
E. 100 DEG 006 NM
F. 200 DEG 83 KT
G. 113 DEG 009 NM
H. 984 MB
I. 10 C/ 3072 M
J. 19 C/ 3068 M
K. 7 C/ NA
L. CLOSED WALL
M. C15
N. 12345/7
O. .1/2 NM
P. AF966 0603A CHARLEY OB 07
MAX FL WIND 83 KT E QUAD 1151Z.

[chrisnnavarre]

If he's not at 20.5N-21N 82W by 121800Z then they will probably change it again further west. I wonder if Bonnie has cleared a path charlie into the Florida Panhandle where I live. Will track just to be on the safe-side. Down here people still tell stories about Erin and Opal. For the experts is there anything to Storms following in other storm's wake or is that just an old wise-tell???

[GalvestonDuck]

I appreciate the explanations (since it was a possibility). Just darn glad it (the model) was wrong.

[Stormcenter]

By looking at satellite, I would say mainly northwest. As you know, Hurricanes doesn't always move in a straight linear fashion. Their movement can resemble a flight of stairs. For instance, one step up, another step left, which equals a northwest motion.

How can you tell what direction Charly is going in with no distinct eye to focus on? But looking at it based just on visible it does look like it took a westward wobble. Though that may be all that it is "A Wobble". I'll stick with the NW movement until further eveidence that it is more than that.

[Derek Ortt]

with the intensifictaion, have decided to go with 100KT

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl032004forecast.html

also, there are graphics with this forecast on the homepage

[Stephanie]

DT - I appreciate that you presented the POSSIBILITY of Charley going west into Texas. That's what analysis is all about.

[vbhoutex]

DT - I appreciate that you presented the POSSIBILITY of Charley going west into Texas. That's what analysis is all about.

Yes, thanks DT and that is what discussion is all about too-presenting different scenarios and talking about them pro and con with each person being able to hopefully learn and/or make their own decisions as to what might happen based on what is presented by the more knowledgeable posters.

[Guest]

What do you think of the next two weeks? Looks like two more dangerous systems moving west in the atlantic.