Morning Charley thoughts

Derek Ortt · #1 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 5:15 am

1. It is intensifying faster than expected. The winds are closer to 80KT (based upon 80 percent of 98KT at flight level) than 75KT

2. It is moving according to the forecast track, no surprise on the motion.

Now on to the concerns, Havana first and foremost. I am terribly concerned about this one here. A cat 2 storm that makes a direct hit on the city is going to produce a termendous amount of damage and loss of life. Many of the buildings are in no shape to ride out a major storm. Second is the WC. Major surge potential if this comes in at a greater than 60 degree angle. Best case is for this to come in at about a 30 degree angle to the coast, producing a lower surge. Wont help with the winds, which could be at sustained cat 3 in that eastern eye wall

Matthew5 · #2 Postby **Matthew5** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 5:18 am

The storm looked better a hour or so ago. With in the last hour it has started to look like it is weaken a little. :roll:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT ... IR4/20.jpg

kevin · #3 Postby **kevin** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 5:19 am

Thanks Derek, I appreciate your insights this morning. So track is a go so far?

kevin · #4 Postby **kevin** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 5:19 am

That link is to the east atlantic my friend.

FWBHurricane · #5 Postby **FWBHurricane** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 5:21 am

He is slamming through the Caymon Islands right now, Do we know if any damage was reported in Jamaica?

Derek Ortt · #6 Postby **Derek Ortt** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 5:30 am

Its not weakening. You CANNOT look at overall convection but instead must focus on convection where the center is

HurricaneGirl · #7 Postby **HurricaneGirl** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:15 am

Holy Crap!! It's coming right for us!! :eek:

Anonymous · #8 Postby **Anonymous** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:21 am

HurricaneGirl wrote::eek: Holy Crap!! It's coming right for us!!

Your screenname may hold true tomorrow! :eek:

kevin · #9 Postby **kevin** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:28 am

Holy Crap!! It's coming right for us!!<<

yep, that's the sensible thing to do in this situation, get really excited and panic. lol Seriously, you should be okay in Jax, just don't be dumb and jump in a retention pond which has a power line hanging down in it or something of that sort.

HurricaneGirl · #10 Postby **HurricaneGirl** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:29 am

Yes, we are still scheduled to have our party Saturday night! We'll get alot of rain but I don't think the wind will be much to worry about!! If our power goes out we'll have to cancel our party because we won't be able to play! :roll:

kevin · #11 Postby **kevin** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:32 am

Have fun! I'm going to brave the stores today, just for some batteries. Got everything else needed to defend this compound right hur'. Hurah!

Website · #12 Postby **Brent** » Thu Aug 12, 2004 6:46 am

Morning Charley thoughts

Morning Charley thoughts

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