Center redeveloping North

This is the general tropical discussion area. Anyone can take their shot at predicting a storms path.

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Forum rules

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

Help Support Storm2K
Post Reply
Message
Author
stormernie

Center redeveloping North

#1 Postby stormernie » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:00 pm

Latest Shortwave and Infared loop show what may be the beginning of the center redeveloping or moving under the intense thunderstorms just to the north of the previous location. Also, the cloud canopy has now become more oriented Northwest - southeast which is a indicator of a directional change. Finally, the outflow has become much more define and is excellent for all quadrants except to the immediate left of the center.

Also, in anlysising the water temps in the carribbean,, Charlie will be entering some of the warmest (bath water) that are in this part of the world. Including a couple of warm water eddies that it is expected to cross late tonight or early tomorrow morning. This may cause rapid intensification.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hyperstorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1500
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 3:48 am
Location: Ocala, FL

#2 Postby Hyperstorm » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:03 pm

I can tell you that at one point I also suspected seeing the same thing. I noticed the kind of wobbling convection repositioning itself to accomodate a new center, but that's really not happening. I really doubt a system of this strength (992mb) would have a new center redevelop when there's no shear over it. Good points, however!
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Aquawind
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6714
Age: 62
Joined: Mon Jun 16, 2003 10:41 pm
Location: Salisbury, NC
Contact:
Contact Aquawind

#3 Postby Aquawind » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:16 pm

Dohh.. :eek:

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc_pages/04_ ... thumb.html
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38263
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#4 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:17 pm

WRONG. Hurricanes do NOT "redevelop" centers. Sorry, try again.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
OtherHD
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2192
Age: 39
Joined: Tue Oct 08, 2002 10:01 am
Location: San Antonio, TX

#5 Postby OtherHD » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:18 pm

Hurricanes tend to not "redevelop" centers...
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
bahamaswx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1545
Joined: Sat Sep 13, 2003 1:11 am
Location: Georgetown, Bahamas

#6 Postby bahamaswx » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:20 pm

No need to be so harsh.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Bane
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 690
Joined: Wed Sep 17, 2003 3:06 pm
Location: Ogden, NC
Contact:
Contact Bane

#7 Postby Bane » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:21 pm

I was thinking he was talking about Bonnie in that first paragraph, not Charley.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Stormsfury
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 10549
Age: 53
Joined: Wed Feb 05, 2003 6:27 pm
Location: Summerville, SC

#8 Postby Stormsfury » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:23 pm

Bane wrote:I was thinking he was talking about Bonnie in that first paragraph, not Charley.


That's what I thought ...
0 likes   
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38263
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#9 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:23 pm

bahamaswx wrote:No need to be so harsh.


Sorry... lack of sleep and 12 hours on the computer is starting to get to me. :wink:
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
stormchazer
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2462
Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 12:00 pm
Location: Lakeland, Florida
Contact:
Contact stormchazer

#10 Postby stormchazer » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:24 pm

Brent wrote:WRONG. Hurricanes do NOT "redevelop" centers. Sorry, try again.


Your point is?

Sorry... :lol:
0 likes   
The posts or stuff said are NOT an official forecast and my opinion alone. Please look to the NHC and NWS for official forecasts and products.

Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged

Opinions my own.
Top
Brent
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 38263
Age: 37
Joined: Sun May 16, 2004 10:30 pm
Location: Tulsa Oklahoma
Contact:
Contact Brent

#11 Postby Brent » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:26 pm

The poster is referring to Charley, look at the last paragraph. CARIBBEAN.
0 likes   
#neversummer
Top
User avatar
Hyperstorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1500
Joined: Sun Sep 07, 2003 3:48 am
Location: Ocala, FL

Re: Center redeveloping North

#12 Postby Hyperstorm » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:37 pm

stormernie wrote:Latest Shortwave and Infared loop show what may be the beginning of the center redeveloping or moving under the intense thunderstorms just to the north of the previous location. Also, the cloud canopy has now become more oriented Northwest - southeast which is a indicator of a directional change. Finally, the outflow has become much more define and is excellent for all quadrants except to the immediate left of the center.

Also, in anlysising the water temps in the carribbean,, Charlie will be entering some of the warmest (bath water) that are in this part of the world. Including a couple of warm water eddies that it is expected to cross late tonight or early tomorrow morning. This may cause rapid intensification.


Charley...
0 likes   
Top
Derecho
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1011
Joined: Sat Mar 15, 2003 3:15 pm

#13 Postby Derecho » Wed Aug 11, 2004 9:54 pm

Funny how the center supposedly "reformed" yet has an eye of identical size in each of the last two VORTEXs 2 hours apart. What are the odds of that? :-)
0 likes   
Top
Post Reply

Return to “Talkin' Tropics”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 155 guests