Bonnie getting wiped off the map?

[Weatherboy1]

Wow -- looks like Bonnie could be done for. This is the latest vortex message showing winds are barely TD strength at flight level and pressures are up to 1008 mb.

URNT12 KNHC 120029
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 12/0029Z
B. 26 DEG 55 MIN N
88 DEG 50 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1486 M
D. 20 KT
E. 010 DEG 32 NM
F. 091 DEG 25 KT
G. 010 DEG 048 NM
H. 1008 MB
I. 18 C/ 1524 M
J. 21 C/ 1529 M
K. 15 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/08
O. 1 /3 NM
P. AF963 0902A BONNIE OB 03
MAX FL WIND 25 KT N QUAD 0013Z.

[Guest]

Looks to be mainly an inland flood threat to me...

[dixiebreeze]

YEA!

[Matthew5]

Expect this will mean the down grading of tropical storm Bonnie into a depression at 11?

[The Dark Knight]

Maybe...

[Aquawind]

Crazy... Not lookin that bad on IR..

[bahamaswx]

Should be downgraded... but they would never do that...not now.

[Hyperstorm]

The system looked worse last night.

This is likely 1 of 2 things:

1) Temporary Phase - Better organized in the morning (nocturnal maxima).

2) Recon missed the center (as they have done for the majority of its lifetime).

I'm leaning on that being a temporary phase wind-wise, but the pressure must be a miss. I don't think it has gone up all that.

Just expect to see the satellite in the morning and see a TOTALLY different storm...I can almost guarantee it.

[HURAKAN]

I still think the RECON missed its target and probably the measuring device didn't measured the right place but further out. That's my thinking, but anything is possible.

[The Dark Knight]

We will see soon enough...

[Bane]

Agreed on them missing the center. The NHC even mentioned this in their discussion.

[Aquawind]

2 hours ago..Advisory..

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 65 MPH...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND BONNIE COULD
BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TONIGHT OR THURSDAY MORNING. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY INVESTIGATING
BONNIE.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES FROM THE
CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

[Derecho]

For a given VORTEX you get winds from ONE SIDE OF THE STORM.

It's not ACTUALLY 25 kts.


That said, it looks bad on sat (SW shear) and clearly isn't intensifying.

[LilNoles2004]

Things will be different on next vortex message... She really looks 10x better than last night, but not as good as earlier today... I do expect one more burst prior to landfall overnight and into tomorrow morning...

[HURAKAN]

A new burst of convection will easily bring the storm to hurricane status.

[wxman57]

No, they didn't miss the target, and no, Bonnie isn't just weakening for the reason it did yesterday. Recon since early afternoon has measured a significant rise in central pressure, which the NHC has ignored because it didn't fit with their hurricane watch/warning. They used a wind gust at a buoy to justify 55kt sustained 1-minute wind in Bonnie vs. recon measurements. They then assumed since the wind was 55kts, that the pressure must be lower based on the necessary pressure gradient between the wind gust at the buoy and the storm's center. Then they used a FL wind from 1630Z of 72 kts (before the strong shear hit) to justify the 4pm and 7pm winds in Bonnie. Classic NHC refusing to acknowledge significant weakening of a landfalling storm.

Now the reason Bonnie strengthened earlier today was simple. Note that convection died out late yesterday. That happened because the northerly shear diminished in advance of the cold front. This lower-shear period this morning was forecast very well. But now that the upper trof is digging into the Gulf, the shear won't do anything but increase. The shear got so strong this afternoon that the only convection was on the eastern edge of a large central ring that was Bonnie's tight center. The plane could no longer find Bonnie's center. The tight LLC from this morning was gone, replaced by a broad ring of circulation perhaps 60-80 miles across containing several vortices. Pressure rose to 1007 mb from 1644Z to 1813Z, 5mb in 1.5 hours. Yet the NHC insists it has 65 mph and is strengthening.

I can understand their position, somewhat. Their goal is to warn the public and get them out of harm's way at all costs. There may be a tiny chance that Bonnie could produce damaging winds and hurt someone on the coast, so they'd rather way over-warn everyone than take that chance.

Saw something funny on the evening news. They were interviewing tourists in Panama City, FL. The tourists said they'd heard the warnings from the NHC and were planning to pack up and drive out in the morning -- right as Bonnie is moving ashore. It'll be there/gone in just a few hours at the speed it will be moving, probably as they're packing their car to leave.

[wxman57]

For a given VORTEX you get winds from ONE SIDE OF THE STORM.

It's not ACTUALLY 25 kts.


That said, it looks bad on sat (SW shear) and clearly isn't intensifying.

Yep, that 25kt FL wind was north of the center - and Bonnie's never had any wind north of the center. Max winds are probably around 35-40 kts south and east of the center now in a few squalls. Max wind in other quadrants is probably 15-20 kts.

[dixiebreeze]

Excellent analysis, wx57. Thanks!

[Guest]

I guess we didn't learn anything from last night. She will go into the Panhandle a strong TS IMO..

lastest still shows convection once again firing ..

[soonertwister]

They ignored it because of the body of evidence. Because 55kt winds can't be supported by 1007 mb pressure.

Because that was an extrapolated measurement that the dropsonde data didn't support.

For crying out loud, let's just put this lady to bed. We'll wait the for real deal a day later.

For those who read what I just said literally, it wasn't literal. It's what's going on at this board. Subjective judgement of this or that storm is worse, ignore the TS.

Wake up! What percentage of tropical systems causes 95% of the deaths? Does anyone even want to venture a guess? People lose when they underestimate their foe.

Beware those who would diminish one in favor of another. For those are consumed with vanity and convenient order of status.