Charley Advisories

[The Dark Knight]

I agree....

[Hyperstorm]

Certainly isn't "explosive deepening" but Charley's pressure has been inching down all day. The key will be what happens once it clears Jamaica (which is happening right about now). The mountains there are about 4,000 - 5,000 feet high, if I remember from my honeymoon cruise a few years back, so given the track of the storm, inflow was likely disrupted. Now, he won't have that handicap. I'm glad recon's in there, that's for sure.

Exactly!

[bahamaswx]

He certainly hasn't intensified much, but I'd expect them to find 80-85kts in the NE eyewall soon also.

[Steve Cosby]

C. 850 MB 1342 M

Man, they are still flying that sucker at 1500 feet- wait

oops.

delete, delete, delete, delete, delete, delete, delete, delete, etc.

Guess I can't read "M", huh?

[Three Blind Mice]

watch what happens in the next few hours. It could be rather interesting by the 5am update.

[Steve Cosby]

Please see

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?p=604981#604981

[Guest]

There is NO reason to jump the Gun JUST yet....

WXCSI I have NO idea if the euro is right... It is one run and not 4 or 5 .... My intention was to point out that the euro has a alternate scenario... one which I mentioned on one of Monday posts.

BTW I dont know who MT is either.... You signed your Posts M so the MT was a Typo....

[Derek Ortt]

I decided to only speed the system up after landfall. Still looking at a friday mid-day landfall at 95KT

http://www.nwhhc.com/atl032004forecast.html

[SouthernWx]

SAY TX ANYONE?

By Monday and Tuesday Charley is a CAT 4 cane heading WNW towards HOUSTON the the central or Upper TX coast! The Model has a CAT 4 or 5 cane On Houston a week from today.

That scenario makes a lot more sense climatologically speaking than a recurving cat-3 hurricane into Tampa Bay or Fort Myers in mid-August. Most major landfalling U.S. August hurricanes have historically affected the central or western Gulf Coast (MS/ LA/ TX). In fact, the earliest cat-3 of record to strike the Florida peninsula is August 16th (1888). If Charley reaches cat-3 and strikes the Florida west coast coming NNE from the Gulf, it would be the first of record for mid-August....it's never happened, at least not since 1845.

Also, if anyone believes in deja-vu...there have already been two major hurricanes to strike the upper Texas coast around August 17-18.....Alicia in 1983, and a devastating cat-4 in 1915.

[Winnipesaukee]

You're map makes me tingle with excitement. I dare you to forecast what my strongest gust could be. (in central NH.)

[Aquawind]

UGH..............Geesh..This is gonna get messy at my House!!!!

[Brent]

Good forecast.

[bahamaswx]

Do you not think you're being too conservative with the intensity through 24hrs?

[dixiebreeze]

Have to feel bad for the folks on the island.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseasthurrir.html

[Scott_inVA]

:Pick:

Despite being a huge EC fan, I ain't buying the run.
If the 5PM EDT 290/15 trend continues shifting NWs...it's Texas Toast, IMO.

Gimme some orange juice.

David...put that in all your sigs.

ROFLMAO!

Scott

[Derek Ortt]

no, due to the shear with the ul, i see nothing rapid

[Guest]

Uhh, Derek, I thought one of your weakest points was graphing forecasting intensities of systems. Why are you doing it now...

[Derek Ortt]

Weak point making graphics? I dont understand your question. Forecast graphics are extremely easy, I just left the office early today so I could get 5-6 hours of sleep for once

[The Dark Knight]

Hmmm.....

[dixiebreeze]

with Bonnie still at 3.0/3.0:

11/2345 UTC 17.4N 78.2W T4.0/4.0 CHARLEY -- Atlantic Ocean