Charley Advisories

[rainstorm]

it looks like southerly shear is hitting it , which may make it seem it has moved north. always a possibility. if it becomes less organized, it would move more west

[rainstorm]

good thoughts dt

[wayoutfront]

looked like a pretty good eye, before that big burst of convection

[Jevo]

Whew the -removed- is rampant now...... Make it stopppppppp

[wxcsi]

LOL....
Nice try.

You accused me of SCARING HEADLINES.... we all know you werent the least bit intersted in my view of what TPC should or should not do...


No I didnt see the 12z ecwmf Intial.

I did not accuse you of "scaring headlines". I am interested in how your forecast would have differed from that given by NHC's 5pm update.

You don't have to answer my questions...you can simply ignore my questions. Like I said, I am new here, I was just trying to learn a few things. Do you not accept questions? If so, again I am sorry.

You're the expert. I didn't mean to upset you by asking questions about your post which was titled:
MAJOR DEVELOPMENT WITH CHARLEY'S TRACK

Do you think the storm is going to Texas?

M

[Lindaloo]

Okay, let's move along.

[Winnipesaukee]

-removed- is all I have. This beast is moving north into New England just like 1938. Latest satellite clearly shows a sharp, well pronounced hook due north and wild acceleration.

[Winnipesaukee]

Entertaining thread. Thanks.

[amawea]

Duck, not to mention Seabrook, Kemah, Bacliff, Baytown, etc., lol. My folks live in Baytown, and my brother in law lives in Bacliff. I was there when hurricane Alicia hit and that was bad enough. We had gust to 110mph and numerous tornadoes. Take care.
Amawea

[weatherfan]

What Dt is saying is that since some models are more to the left that one can not rule out Texas by any streach of the imagenion.By friday or Saterday we sould have a much better ideal if Charly has made that turn and go in to the Panhandel or start heading in to Texas so still some questions that still have to be anwered on when does Charly make that North turn and if the trough even picks him up or not will determend the track of Charly over the few days.And as Dt said if the trough does miss him and or only partley picks him up.That would mean 1.lot more longer time over water in a since we could have possabley a stronger system.2,the chances of Texas being hit would be greatey increase.

[Skywatch_NC]

Updated: 4:00 PM EDT on August 11, 2004

Flash Flood Watch in effect from midday Thursday through midday
Friday...

Thursday:

Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and possible thunderstorms in the morning. Then periods of showers and scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon with locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs in the lower 80s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 100 percent.

Thursday Night:

Periods of showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows in the upper 60s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 100 percent.

Friday:

Mostly cloudy. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms...tapering off in the afternoon. Highs around 80. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Friday Night:

Periods of rain with isolated thunderstorms. Rain may be heavy at times. Lows in the upper 60s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Saturday:

Periods of rain with isolated thunderstorms. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 90 percent.


Flood Watch / Flood Statement

Statement as of 3:00 PM EDT on August 11, 2004


The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for the
following counties in central north carolina:
Scotland... Hoke... Anson... Cumberland... Sampson... Stanly...
Montgomery... Moore... Harnett... Wayne... Lee... Johnston... Wilson...
Chatham... Randolph... Davidson... Wake... Edgecombe... Nash...Durham... Orange... Alamance ... Guilford... Forsyth...Franklin...Halifax...Vance... Person... Granville... Warren... and Richmond. The watch is in effect from noon Thursday until noon Friday.

The remnants of Bonnie are expected to track toward the
north-northeast through central North Carolina Thursday night
through Friday morning... . however the rainfall associated with
Bonnie will begin to overspread the area during the day on Thursday.
The rainfall will increase in both coverage and intensity through
Thursday afternoon and night. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches can
be expected... with locally higher amounts possible. Flooding of
low-lying and poor drainage areas... urban areas... Highway
underpasses... and creeks and streams could occur between midday
Thursday and midday Friday.

Also... Hurricane Charley is forecast to move over eastern North
Carolina late Friday through Saturday... and will bring additional
rain to the area. As a result... the flooding threat may stretch
into the weekend and the Flash Flood Watch may need to be extended.
People across central North Carolina are urged to frequently check
the latest forecasts and conditions into the weekend.

A Flash Flood Watch means that flooding is possible within the watch
area. People in the watch area are advised to check preparedness
requirements... keep informed... and be ready for quick action if
flash flooding threatens or if a warning is issued.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for up to the
minute weather information.

[USAwx1]

Updated: 4:00 PM EDT on August 11, 2004

Flash Flood Watch in effect from midday Thursday through midday
Friday...

Thursday:

Mostly cloudy. A chance of showers and possible thunderstorms in the morning. Then periods of showers and scattered thunderstorms in the afternoon with locally heavy rainfall possible. Highs in the lower 80s. South winds 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 100 percent.

Thursday Night:

Periods of showers and a chance of thunderstorms. Locally heavy rainfall possible. Lows in the upper 60s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 100 percent.

Friday:

Mostly cloudy. Showers and a chance of thunderstorms...tapering off in the afternoon. Highs around 80. Southwest winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80 percent.

Friday Night:

Periods of rain with isolated thunderstorms. Rain may be heavy at times. Lows in the upper 60s. South winds 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 90 percent.

Saturday:

Periods of rain with isolated thunderstorms. Rain may be heavy at times. Highs in the mid 70s. Chance of rain 90 percent.


Flood Watch / Flood Statement

Statement as of 3:00 PM EDT on August 11, 2004


The National Weather Service has issued a Flash Flood Watch for the
following counties in central north carolina:
Scotland... Hoke... Anson... Cumberland... Sampson... Stanly...
Montgomery... Moore... Harnett... Wayne... Lee... Johnston... Wilson...
Chatham... Randolph... Davidson... Wake... Edgecombe... Nash...Durham... Orange... Alamance ... Guilford... Forsyth...Franklin...Halifax...Vance... Person... Granville... Warren... and Richmond. The watch is in effect from noon Thursday until noon Friday.

The remnants of Bonnie are expected to track toward the
north-northeast through central North Carolina Thursday night
through Friday morning... . however the rainfall associated with
Bonnie will begin to overspread the area during the day on Thursday.
The rainfall will increase in both coverage and intensity through
Thursday afternoon and night. Rainfall amounts of 2 to 4 inches can
be expected... with locally higher amounts possible. Flooding of
low-lying and poor drainage areas... urban areas... Highway
underpasses... and creeks and streams could occur between midday
Thursday and midday Friday.

Also... Hurricane Charley is forecast to move over eastern North
Carolina late Friday through Saturday... and will bring additional
rain to the area. As a result... the flooding threat may stretch
into the weekend and the Flash Flood Watch may need to be extended.
People across central North Carolina are urged to frequently check
the latest forecasts and conditions into the weekend.

A Flash Flood Watch means that flooding is possible within the watch
area. People in the watch area are advised to check preparedness
requirements... keep informed... and be ready for quick action if
flash flooding threatens or if a warning is issued.

Stay tuned to NOAA Weather Radio and other local media for up to the
minute weather information.

Yep as forecasted late last night and early this morning.

[LaBreeze]

Local mets here are not very concerned about Bonnie or Charley affecting this area at all. They are more concerned about the thunderstorms accompanying the front expected to arrive tonight and early in the morning. I don't think that Texas or Louisiana have much to worry about with the tropics right now. Although, as the old saying for those of us who live along the Gulf Coast, "Never turn your back to the water."

[Lowpressure]

I also remember DT going against the grain with Isabel and being correct. The trough is pretty strong and pretty deep in the gulf, I do not see Charley headed to Texas given the current setup. We will know soon enough.

[Stephanie]

Its only August 11, so any track is possible. If it were September 11, I'd say for sure Charley would take the trough.

Why?

I *think* that it's because of the coldfront - they normally don't come down that far south during the summer, but September, being closer to the fall, there's more of a chance of it being picked up by a deep front.

They have a tendency of really protecting the EC from storms since they tend to pick them up and carry them away from land.

Great points DT!

[LaBreeze]

And this current front is expected to be the strongest of the last four that we've received.

[cycloneye]

Hurricane Charley Intermediate Advisory Number 10a


Statement as of 8:00 PM EDT on August 11, 2004



...Hurricane Charley heading for the Cayman Islands...

a Hurricane Warning remains in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman
Islands.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the following provinces of
western Cuba...Pinar del Rio...la Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...
Matanzas...and the Isle of Youth. This watch will probably be
changed to a Hurricane Warning tonight.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect from Dry Tortugas to Ocean Reef
including Florida Bay...and from Flamingo northward to Bonita
Beach. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are
possible within the watch area...generally within 36 hours.
The Hurricane Watch will likely be extended northward along the
Florida west coast tonight or early Thursday.

At 8 PM EDT...0000z...the center of Hurricane Charley was located
near latitude 17.2 north...longitude 78.2 west or about 250 miles
...400 km...southeast of Grand Cayman or 140 miles...220 km...
west-southwest of Kingston Jamaica.

Charley is moving toward the west-northwest near 17 mph...28 km/hr.
A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected during the next 24
hours. On this track...the center will be passing near or over the
Cayman Islands on Thursday. Rain bands with tropical storm force
winds in squalls will continue to affect much of Jamaica this
evening and tonight. These conditions will begin to spread over
the Cayman Islands early Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 75 mph...120 km/hr...with higher
gusts. A reconnaissance plane in currently approaching the
hurricane. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24
hours.

Hurricane force winds extend outward up to 30 miles...45 km...
from the center...and tropical storm force winds extend outward up
to 115 miles...185 km.

Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb...29.32 inches.

Above normal tides...accompanied by large and dangerous battering
waves...are likely along the coasts of Jamaica this evening and
tonight...and the Cayman Islands tonight and Thursday morning.

Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are likely in association with
Charley. These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and
mud slides.

Repeating the 8 PM EDT position...17.2 N... 78.2 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 17 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 75 mph. Minimum central pressure... 993 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

The next advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at
11 PM EDT.

Forecaster Avila


They are waiting for recon to report and then at the 11 PM one will see the changes.

[SwampDawg]

don't get too excited....it's moving west

[wx247]

Wow...great thread!!! I had to read for a while to catch up on everything since I have been gone. DT... your scenario really does seem to make sense. I guess it is a waiting game now though.

[HURAKAN]

They are just waiting for the RECON to make any type of changes. Don't you think so?