18:00 UTC Models are spread out from more west to more east

[cycloneye]

http://www5.wright-weather.com/data/wxp ... t_atcf.gif

Very interesting tracks from the models this afternoon.

[Aquawind]

Getting that upper air data into the models should clear some stuff up..I imagine NHC will do me a favor and shift the track west a tad at 5pm..

[cycloneye]

Yes when tonight the gulfstream jet flys the global models will get the data to then factor in at the 00z run and then a more clear picture about the future track will be available.

[Stephanie]

Those are some pretty sharp right turns Charlie will be making, but most of the models are indicating this.

Either way, I'll be getting remnants of Charlie in one form or another!

[MWatkins]

Yes when tonight the gulfstream jets flys the global models will get the data to then factor in at the 00z run and then a more clear picture about the future track will be available.

Correct, Mr Cyclone. The data won't make it into the models until tonight...so we'll know when the GFS runs start coming out around midnight IF the dropwindsondes have any effect.

Usually...on average...the models are 30% more accurate on track forecasts with the environmental data from these flights.

MW

[tallywx]

Those are some pretty sharp right turns Charlie will be making, but most of the models are indicating this.

Either way, I'll be getting remnants of Charlie in one form or another!

Keep in mind that this map also has the model runs for Bonnie in it as well. Filtering those out, I don't see any sharp turns from Charlie...just a smooth bend to the NW or N over the next few days. Looks like they bring the North-central Gulf Coast back into play.

[Guest]

Cycloneeye, is that WWBB generated, or do you have software that makes those maps??? Those are nice maps...

[cycloneye]

Cycloneeye, is that WWBB generated, or do you have software that makes those maps??? Those are nice maps...

From that site.

[Brent]

I still think the turn is too sharp.

[Guest]

ohh! i didnt know you could access them off of WWBB... i found where you got em...

[PTrackerLA]

From what I've noticed based on model trends today, it seems like landfall on the Florida Peninsula is a little less likely right now. Although we all know things can change. I never like when the models start backing to the west, as that just brings the storm closer to me .

[LaBreeze]

Yes, but PTrakerLA, we're on the western (dry) side of both storms - no complaints here, especially after getting a direct hit by Lili.

[Weatherboy1]

I've been checking all the web sites I know for the 1800 UTC model runs for Charley, and I haven't seen them yet. I cross-referenced your link to one I have where the timestamp of the model runs can be seen at the top:

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/omd/ops/weather/plots/storm_03.gif

It looks like the paths shown on my link (which are identified as the 12 UTC tropical runs) are the same as those at your link. Could it be that those are the outdated runs? OSU, for instance, shows 18 UTC runs for Bonnie, but nothing on Charley yet. I'm wondering if NHC isn't just late with the runs for some reason.

[PTrackerLA]

LaBreeze, I know we don't need a storm, my trees have finally recovered since Lili and the new ones I've planted look too good to be beat up . Wouldn't mind some rain though, it's been bone dry in Lafayette since early July.

[LaBreeze]

You are right PTracker - not much precip here in Vermilion Parish either in a while.

[Steve H.]

Those tropical models can be thrown out now. Watch the globals, as they have a better feel for the trough influence. If tonights 00z GFS run is close to todays 12z, you can pretty much bank on a west coast Florida landfall. No way this is gonna jump the trough into the central GOM.....absolutely no way!

[LaBreeze]

Same thoughts here Steve H. Stay safe.

[Steve H.]

Thanks LaBreeze. I'm on the East coast of central FL so I should be ok.