Charley Advisories

[PTrackerLA]

You made some very good points. I'm wondering what the NHC will decide to do with the forecast path this afternoon.

[Vortex]

Charley is beginning to slow down dramatically....by this evening a more nw motion should begin...At the same time Charley appears to be intensifying rapidly....Much more in a bit

[Stormcenter]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/float2-wv-loop.html

Looks WNW to me on WV Loop

~Chris

Well one thing is for sure the 11am projected NHC track is officially wrong.
Click on link below.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT ... 11508W.gif

[Vortex]

Charley is beginning to slow down dramatically....by this evening a more nw motion should begin...At the same time Charley appears to be intensifying rapidly....Much more in a bit

[cycloneye]

000
URNT12 KNHC 111554
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/1554Z
B. 16 DEG 28 MIN N
76 DEG 22 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1359 M
D. 30 KT
E. 314 DEG 040 NM
F. 006 DEG 58 KT
G. 286 DEG 005 NM
H. 994 MB
I. 16 C/ 1555 M
J. 21 C/ 1515 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.1/2.0 NM
P. AF968 0203A CHARLEY OB 16
MAX FL WIND 58 KT W QUAD 1552Z

58 kts at flight level at west quadrant.

[jlauderdal]

Charley is beginning to slow down dramatically....by this evening a more nw motion should begin...At the same time Charley appears to be intensifying rapidly....Much more in a bit

yeah and also heading w or wsw

[chris_fit]

WSW???? No Way

[Stormcenter]

Charley is beginning to slow down dramatically....by this evening a more nw motion should begin...At the same time Charley appears to be intensifying rapidly....Much more in a bit

yeah and also heading w or wsw

Maybe Charly wants some Central American
cuisine.

[boca]

Vortex, please explain your reasoning?

[Jevo]

Actually the last 3 frames clearly has old C-dogg making the slowdown. Odds are this is the beginning of the turn we were expecting. The truth is we really wont know what going on until the Gulfstream gets in there...

On a side note.... If a mysterious dropsonde lands on Fidel Castro's head is it a conspiracy????

[ColdFront77]

The 8:00 AM to 11:00 AM position went WSW... the NHC said it was relocated in their 11:00 AM Advisory.

[Typhoon_Willie]

I do not think so! A slow down usually means a turn is coming very soon!

[ColdFront77]

Willie, are you saying that to the five above me or me?

[Seadootoo]

If you are plotting you will see it went wsw.

[ColdFront77]

Right, it was plotted WSW, doesn't mean it moved WSW.....



000
WTNT33 KNHC 111447
TCPAT3
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT WED AUG 11 2004

...CHARELY NEARING HURRICANE STRENGTH...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
JAMAICA.

A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF CUBA HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE
WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES OF WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL
RIO...LA HABANA...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...MATANZAS...AND THE ISLE OF
YOUTH.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM DRY
TORTUGAS TO CRAIG KEY. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36
HOURS. ADDITIONAL WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF
THE FLORIDA PENINSULA LATER TODAY.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...IT IS RECOMMENDED THAT THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FOR HAITI BE DISCONTINUED.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE INDICATE THAT
CHARLEY IS CENTERED A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF PREVIOUS ESTIMATES.

AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHARLEY WAS
RELOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 76.1 WEST OR ABOUT
110 MILES... 175 KM...SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF KINGSTON JAMAICA.

CHARLEY IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH
...30 KM/HR...AND A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO. ON THIS TRACK THE CENTER WILL BE MOVING NEAR
THE SOUTH COAST OF JAMAICA LATER TODAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. CHARLEY IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 115 MILES
...185 KM FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY THE HURRICANE
HUNTERS IS 996 MB...29.41 INCHES.

ABOVE NORMAL TIDES...ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DANGEROUS BATTERING
WAVES...ARE LIKELY ALONG THE COASTS OF JAMAICA TODAY...AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS TONIGHT.

RAINFALL TOTALS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES ARE LIKELY IN ASSOCIATION WITH
CHARLEY.

REPEATING THE 11 AM EDT POSITION...16.5 N... 76.1 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 70 MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 996 MB.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
HURRICANE CENTER AT 2 PM EDT FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 5 PM EDT.

FORECASTER PASCH

$$

[tw861]

Latest Vortex:

URNT12 KNHC 111554
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 11/1554Z
B. 16 DEG 28 MIN N
76 DEG 22 MIN W
C. 850 MB 1359 M
D. 30 KT
E. 314 DEG 040 NM
F. 006 DEG 58 KT
G. 286 DEG 005 NM
H. 994 MB
I. 16 C/ 1555 M
J. 21 C/ 1515 M
K. 16 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12345/8
O. 0.1/2.0 NM
P. AF968 0203A CHARLEY OB 16
MAX FL WIND 58 KT W QUAD

Still moving almost due west, and pressure down 2mb in one hour.

[goodlife]

On a side note.... If a mysterious dropsonde lands on Fidel Castro's head is it a conspiracy????

[corpusbreeze]

It will be a lot easier once the eye pops out to track movement. And speaking of an eye , one seems to be appearing.

[corpusbreeze]

It will be a lot easier once the eye pops out to track movement. And speaking of an eye , one seems to be appearing.

[NorthGaWeather]

What is making it turn? The trough is still out to the West and the ridge still is guiding this storm. The storm is not flattening out on the West side and the Center is moving due West. And by the way coldfront is right the Center relocated WSW of the 5 am.