premature for Keys Evacuations

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boca
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premature for Keys Evacuations

#1 Postby boca » Wed Aug 11, 2004 11:49 am

The storm is now heading due west DT is right and this might be a FL panhandle storm or further west
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#2 Postby boca » Wed Aug 11, 2004 11:50 am

if the storm actually hits S FL I'll eat crow with Barbarque sauce
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#3 Postby CalmBeforeStorm » Wed Aug 11, 2004 11:55 am

The storm is now heading due west DT is right and this might be a FL panhandle storm or further west

The official NHC forecast brings the storm within 70 miles of Key West on Friday morning as a CAT1 but with the potential to be stronger. Any keys evacuation takes at least 2 days. How can you not evacuate? By the way. I'll take the NHC over DT any day...case in point his recent prediction that Ralph Nader had more chance of becoming president then Bonnie (then a depression) had of becoming a TC.
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#4 Postby rtd2 » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:07 pm

the WORDS PREMATURE AND EVACUATION! dont go together. geez that could cause people to develope a complex! :lol:



Seriously I've been saying this ALL morning....charley is WAY off course (atleast 150miles off)in the 12 hr. track what will that do to the 48hr track?
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#5 Postby mf_dolphin » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:11 pm

I think the Keys evacs are prudent. The only ones I've seen so far is for non-resident's which is the first phase. Getting out of the lower keys is a mess on a good day. better get the tourists out now and let the residents get ready for what may come.
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#6 Postby therock1811 » Wed Aug 11, 2004 12:30 pm

I'm 100% agreed with mf dolphin here...these evacs are a good idea...that area's a mess on a good day...
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#7 Postby bahamaswx » Wed Aug 11, 2004 1:47 pm

Evac for a cat1 though? I can't see much use evactuating for anything less than a strong cat2.
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#8 Postby Aquawind » Wed Aug 11, 2004 1:52 pm

Just got off the phone with my bud on Big Pine Key..School is cancelled tomorrow and everbody is preparing..they are hauling their Parasail Boat out today..Tourists are leaving..He usually brushes this stuff off, but sounds more concerned this time..

I was at 4 different companies this morning and it's the talk around here..one large Corporation is already recheduling because of being closed friday..I heard a guy in another office talking on the phone and he is a cracker and is canceling his business to Georgia..He was explaining it very well to someone on the phone..I wanna close up for the week myself..lol
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don't get it

#9 Postby Patrick99 » Wed Aug 11, 2004 2:06 pm

I just don't understand all the concern and over-hype. I don't get it. While all this has been going on, the actual storm itself has been underachieving. We still don't even have a MINIMAL hurricane out there.

The uninitiated are going to be taken to the well too many times with these so-called major threats. The Keys have been surviving minimal hurricanes ever since they've been called the Keys. I just think it does more harm than good, to keep promoting all this big DANGER for tropical storms and minimal hurricanes. If there's really a chance of it becoming an Andrew or a Betsy, that's fine. But this....just seems like overkill.
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Re: don't get it

#10 Postby bahamaswx » Wed Aug 11, 2004 2:15 pm

Patrick99 wrote:I just don't understand all the concern and over-hype. I don't get it. While all this has been going on, the actual storm itself has been underachieving. We still don't even have a MINIMAL hurricane out there.

The uninitiated are going to be taken to the well too many times with these so-called major threats. The Keys have been surviving minimal hurricanes ever since they've been called the Keys. I just think it does more harm than good, to keep promoting all this big DANGER for tropical storms and minimal hurricanes. If there's really a chance of it becoming an Andrew or a Betsy, that's fine. But this....just seems like overkill.


Agreed on all points...except that we're talking about Charley, not Bonnie, and he is a minimal hurricane.
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Re: don't get it

#11 Postby Aquawind » Wed Aug 11, 2004 2:16 pm

Patrick99 wrote:I just don't understand all the concern and over-hype. I don't get it. While all this has been going on, the actual storm itself has been underachieving. We still don't even have a MINIMAL hurricane out there.

The uninitiated are going to be taken to the well too many times with these so-called major threats. The Keys have been surviving minimal hurricanes ever since they've been called the Keys. I just think it does more harm than good, to keep promoting all this big DANGER for tropical storms and minimal hurricanes. If there's really a chance of it becoming an Andrew or a Betsy, that's fine. But this....just seems like overkill.


NHC..good place for Hurricane info..as well as a few posts below.. http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/index.shtml

It is Hurricane Charley .. :wink:
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Re: don't get it

#12 Postby drudd1 » Wed Aug 11, 2004 2:24 pm

Patrick99 wrote:I just don't understand all the concern and over-hype. I don't get it. While all this has been going on, the actual storm itself has been underachieving. We still don't even have a MINIMAL hurricane out there.

The uninitiated are going to be taken to the well too many times with these so-called major threats. The Keys have been surviving minimal hurricanes ever since they've been called the Keys. I just think it does more harm than good, to keep promoting all this big DANGER for tropical storms and minimal hurricanes. If there's really a chance of it becoming an Andrew or a Betsy, that's fine. But this....just seems like overkill.


Unfortunately, a hurricane does not have to have the magnitude of Andrew or Betsy to cause major damage in an exposed, low level area such as the keys. Compounding the problem is the fact that no one, not even the NHC, knows what the intensity of the cane will be at landfall.

Given that traversing the keys can be a chore under normal conditions, during a last minute evacuation, it would be next to, if not impossible. Given the situation, the actions taken this far are prudent, and I'm not sure they really have much of a choice. If they sit and wait, and have to make the decision at the last minute, it will be too late. Everyone bashing them now for hyping it, would be the same folks saying they didn't do enough. Can't win for losing, so I think they have decided to risk a little egg on their face vs putting folks in harms way.
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