Charley Advisories

rtd2 · #941 Postby **rtd2** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:14 am

DT....we've both been in this GAME long enough to know the NHC doesnt make drastic changes from one update to another. they tend to rather play catch up. Its rare but they have blown calls all together....opal comes to mind!

c5Camille · #942 Postby **c5Camille** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:15 am

all the models that have run since discovering the llc shift have forcast the storm to be west of Tampa
pissible even missing the trough...

Dan · #943 Postby **Dan** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:17 am

DT wrote:However IMO they are making a mistake with Charley 11am track... Their 11 am Discussion says that

HURRICANE HUNTERS INDICATE THAT CHARLEY HAS BEEN
MOVING A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUSLY ESTIMATED TRACK SO THE CENTER HAS BEEN RELOCATED SLIGHTLY SOUTH.

Yet they end up with the same track into SW FL... I suppose one could argue that b/c he has slowed down some the turn might be a bit sharper.

I think the NHC may be waiting for the 18z model runs, then it would be kinda hard for them to ignore the model trends come 5pm. I agree with you, Charley is going to be farther west than the current forecast indicates.

#944 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:24 am

Yeah...that track is too far east. They track it NW out of the blocks...when it is clearly moving more w-wnw.

Josephine96 · #945 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:24 am

I still believe a Central or SW Florida landfall is the best bet..

rtd2 · #946 Postby **rtd2** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:25 am

if you will see my post earlier and now a few others have picked up on this....charley is south and west of the NHC predicted path. this may or may not impact its end track. the NCH WILL NOT change tracks immediatly they tend to play catch up plus they have a day or 2 to iron this out.....bottom line you will not find where I have made any landfall/prediction strenths(dont play the "hype" game) BUT I will say IF charley stays at 20-25 mph reaching 134 mph as indicated earlier in the post is a far reach! also the further west it moves MAY lesson the effect on S.Fla especially on that fwd speed!

caneman · #947 Postby **caneman** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:28 am

rtd2 wrote:if you will see my post earlier and now a few others have picked up on this....charley is south and west of the NHC predicted path. this may or may not impact its end track. the NCH WILL NOT change tracks immediatly they tend to play catch up plus they have a day or 2 to iron this out.....bottom line you will not find where I have made any landfall/prediction strenths(dont play the "hype" game) BUT I will say IF charley stays at 20-25 mph reaching 134 mph as indicated earlier in the post is a far reach! also the further west it moves MAY lesson the effect on S.Fla especially on that fwd speed!

Ummmmm,

charley is now moving at 18 mph.

#948 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:30 am

It's a HE...not a she :-)

Tommedic · #949 Postby **Tommedic** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:31 am

No matter what, we will need to see the runs a little later in the day for a feel for a more likely path. Also, we need to figure in the interaction with the actions of Bonnie.

Josephine96 · #950 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:32 am

LOL True..

Josephine96 · #951 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:32 am

If it were Charlene that'd be a different story lol

wxcsi · #952 Postby **wxcsi** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:32 am

Stormchaser16 wrote:But the point is that the GFDL does NOT show it as near 134 MPH.... so no one should get in a panic over it.... GFDL only has it around 105-110 MPH.... big difference

I have doubts about any tropical intensity prediction from a dynamical model....meaning I am not validating that the GFDL is correct...it probably is not. However...

the GFDL does, in fact, show those winds very near the surface. The winds are at 950mb, the GFDL shows the storm hitting FL with a MSLP of in the 961-966 range. Winds at 950 would most likely be realized at the surface if the storm hit with such intensity.

Of course, what a model says and what reality is are often worlds apart.

M

Nimbus · #953 Postby **Nimbus** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:32 am

Unless Bonnie tracks east across central florida and drags that trough down behind her there is not much to steer Charley.

Aimless · #954 Postby **Aimless** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:33 am

rats .. I read the last line

Josephine96 · #955 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:35 am

Ditto.. Stronger than 80knts huh.. Well.. lets hope it doesn't explode on us here

HurricaneGirl · #956 Postby **HurricaneGirl** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:35 am

Josephine96 · #957 Postby **Josephine96** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:36 am

Just another thing we didn't want.. Charlie is slowing down..

Perhaps that means he's getting ready to make the curve soon.. or it may just mean he's getting ready to strengthen some..

Category 2 anyone..?

#958 Postby **Air Force Met** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:37 am

It doesn't really matter if it says 105 or 135...it shows that the conditions are ripe for strengthening. The only thing about the model intensity forecast people need to remember is that when they are right on...it was the luck of the draw. As my dad says...even a blind squirrel gets the acorn every once in a while.

#959 Postby **pavelbure224** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:38 am

Charlie slowed down alot which might be a problem for So Fl .

#960 Postby **jlauderdal** » Wed Aug 11, 2004 10:39 am

Nimbus wrote:Unless Bonnie tracks east across central florida and drags that trough down behind her there is not much to steer Charley.

the trough is pushing bonnie not bonnie dragging the trough

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