Charley Advisories

[MortisFL]

http://bricker.met.psu.edu/trop-cgi/gfd ... =Animation


GFDL animation above

[Stormchaser16]

Ummmmmm no it doesnt.......

[chris_fit]

Right at the Bay.... wow

[Stormchaser16]

AGAIN..... these are 950 MB WINDS NOT SURFACE

Take off 15-20% of that to get surface winds

[Matthew5]

Around 120 mph???

[Stormchaser16]

GFDL only has Charley hitting FL with about 105 MPH winds

[goodlife]

I don't like that graphic....too much to look at...lol

[mf_dolphin]

The GFDL is a great track model but the intensity part is pretty bogus most of the time.....

[Brent]

Has slowed to 18 mph!!!

Tropical Storm Charley Advisory Number 9

Statement as of 11:00 am EDT on August 11, 2004

...Charely nearing hurricane strength...

a Tropical Storm Warning and a Hurricane Watch remain in effect for
Jamaica.

A Hurricane Warning remains in effect for the Cayman Islands.

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the government of Cuba has issued a Hurricane
Watch for the following provinces of western Cuba...Pinar del
Rio...la Habana...Ciudad de la Habana...Matanzas...and the Isle of
Youth.

A Hurricane Watch remains in effect for the Florida Keys from Dry
Tortugas to Craig Key. A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane
conditions are possible within the watch area...generally within 36
hours. Additional watches will likely be required for portions of
the Florida peninsula later today.

At 11 am EDT...1500z...it is recommended that the Tropical Storm
Warning for Haiti be discontinued.
Reports from an Air Force hurricane hunter plane indicate that
Charley is centered a little to the south of previous estimates.

At 11 am EDT...1500z...the center of Tropical Storm Charley was
relocated near latitude 16.5 north...longitude 76.1 west or about
110 miles... 175 km...south-southeast of Kingston Jamaica.

Charley is moving toward the west-northwest near 18 mph
...30 km/hr...and a gradual turn to the northwest is expected during
the next day or so. On this track the center will be moving near
the South Coast of Jamaica later today.

Maximum sustained winds are near 70 mph...110 km/hr...with higher
gusts. Charley is expected to become a hurricane later today.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 115 miles
...185 km from the center.
The latest minimum central pressure reported by the hurricane
hunters is 996 mb...29.41 inches.

Above normal tides...accompanied by large and dangerous battering
waves...are likely along the coasts of Jamaica today...and the
Cayman Islands tonight.

Rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches are likely in association with
Charley.

Repeating the 11 am EDT position...16.5 N... 76.1 W. Movement
toward...west-northwest near 18 mph. Maximum sustained
winds... 70 mph. Minimum central pressure... 996 mb.

For storm information specific to your area...please monitor
products issued by your local weather office.

An intermediate advisory will be issued by the National
Hurricane Center at 2 PM EDT followed by the next
complete advisory at 5 PM EDT.

[Josephine96]

Regardless.. Charley still looks like he could be a dangerous storm..

[Stormchaser16]

But the point is that the GFDL does NOT show it as near 134 MPH.... so no one should get in a panic over it.... GFDL only has it around 105-110 MPH.... big difference

[soonertwister]

There's good news and there's bad news for those in the path of this potential hurricane if it slows down. The good news is that those who happen to be in the right eyewall will see weaker apparent wind. The bad news is that the possible hurricane has more time to dump rain and wreak havoc if it is moving slower.

An interesting observation about being in the left eyewall versus the right...

If the storm is moving at 25 mph and you are in the right eyewall of a 125 mph hurricane, your apparent wind (excluding gusts) at maximum is 125+25=150 mph. For those in the left eyewall the wind is 125-25=100 mph. Those figures are only valid when you are at 90 degrees left or right of storm direction to the center.

The ramifications are pretty serious, though. The force applied by wind to objects has much to do with the cross-sectional area of the object to which that force is being applied. In the real world it varies from the formula, but all else being equal the force exerted by wind upon an object increases at the square of the wind speed. Therefore with those in the left eyewall experiencing 100 mph apparent wind and those in the right experiencing 150 mph wind, that difference in speed of 1.5:1 translates into a force of effect difference of 2.25:1; i.e. those in the right eyewall will experience wind forces more than twice of those on the left. In this example, it's the difference between minor to moderate damage and near to total destruction from the storm.

I hear the bell. Class dismissed! And don't forget your life preservers!

[chris_fit]

Pressure up? Interesting

[goodlife]

wow..that oughta change things up a bit

[Trader Ron]

Storm...105 MPH winds can do a bunch of damage. Nobody has talked about tides. Big difference if it hits at High or Low Tide.

[Josephine96]

Pressure up.. but winds are up too.. Might be a slight fluctuation..

[Stormchaser16]

O i know it can..... but the point is that its not 134+ MPH winds....... there is a signifigant difference there

[mf_dolphin]

Pressure up? The 8AM had it at 999. That's a 3mb drop.....

[Josephine96]

Classes will be dismissed all right when they open schools as shelters lol

[Crankin]

slowed to 18 mph. That will also change things.