Bonnie/Charley Concerns...

[MWatkins]

Twofold concern with Bonnie this morning.

1. It appears to be getting better organized. SHIPS guidance does not exceed 55 knots but this is by far the best convective burst we've seen since this system has been around. I hope nobody let their guard down overnight.

2. It's relatively slow movement and intensification create some concern...although Charley is still a little left of the previous position estimates...it is starting to slow down as it starts to feel the weakness in the ridge to the north. Bonnie...as it passes to the north may punch enough of a hole to bring Charley up and out of the Caribbean fairly quickly. Even with the shift in the tropical models (owning mostly to initial motion at 285) the GFS background is not resolving Bonnie well. This couls still in little change from the previous track from TPC later this morning.

MW

[The Dark Knight]

Good point about the weakness... If it does happen so could this!!! http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic ... b2ce4ff865

[BayouVenteux]

Good point about the weakness... If it does happen so could this!!!

Ouch. Fire in the hole. Better look out for those naplam blasts Knight.

[Weatherboy1]

So far, this looks like it could be an Irene-type storm for those of us in Palm Beach County -- but possibly even less of a problem if the latest tracks verify. Some wind, some rain, but no big deal. So AT THIS TIME, I'm not considering putting up shutters, worrying too much, etc.

In my judgement, the positives are:

1) Charley is still not even a cane. While he is approaching that level, he is not yet showing any sign of rapidly intensifying. In fact, on early visible imagery, it looks like the LLC is not directly under the center of the deep convection.

2) Charley should have to contest with Jamaica and Cuba before approaching FL. This will limit strengthening.

3) Charley is forecast to move very quickly N and NNE. We therefore should not get very high rainfall accumulations. Considering how much rain we've had in Palm Beach County the past several days, this is probably the best news out there.

The potential negatives:

1) Charley COULD intensify significantly if he slows down and avoids Jamaica by skirting to the south. After all, over its projected path, there is little shear and very high SSTs.

Plus, if I remember correctly, the worst terrain for hurricanes in Cuba is in the east. The west half of the country is less mountainous and the extreme west, I believe, is basically like south FL -- swampy. That means it shouldn't weaken the storm significantly, especially given the forward speed.

2) If Bonnie weakens that ridge faster than expected, Charley could turn earlier than expected and cross the state further SW. That would make things worse for me here.

So, for now, not a big worry. BUT if recon reports start coming in much stronger, this thing develops an eye, and starts heading NW soon, then I'm going to get real nervous real fast.

[The Dark Knight]

Hmmmmm...... Interesting.....